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West-wide and East-wide Seasonal Hydrologic Prediction Systems

West-wide and East-wide Seasonal Hydrologic Prediction Systems PI (West): Dennis P. Lettenmaier (U. of Washington) PI (East): Eric F. Wood (Princeton University) Primary Contributors: Andy Wood (UW) Lifeng Luo (Princeton)

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West-wide and East-wide Seasonal Hydrologic Prediction Systems

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  1. West-wide and East-wide Seasonal Hydrologic Prediction Systems PI (West): Dennis P. Lettenmaier (U. of Washington) PI (East): Eric F. Wood (Princeton University) Primary Contributors: Andy Wood(UW) Lifeng Luo (Princeton) Others: Nathalie Voisin (UW), Ted Bohn (UW), Ali Akanda (UW), George Thomas (UW), Justin Sheffield (Princeton) NOAA CPPA Principal Investigator’s Meeting Aug.14-16, 2006 Tucson, AZ

  2. Topics • Science Questions and Objectives • Background on both forecasting systems • Applications areas • - seasonal forecasting • -- climate forecasts • -- initial conditions estimates • - shorter lead forecasting (15 day) • - drought monitoring • External Interactions

  3. Governing CPPA Science Objectives • CPPA vision:improve operational intraseasonal to interannual climate prediction and hydrological applications. • CPPA land-atmosphere interaction science objectives: • improve understanding and simulation of coupled land-atmosphere processes through observation, data analysis, and modeling studies; • (2) determine the influence of land-atmosphere processes on intra-seasonal to interannual climate predictability; and • (3) use this knowledge to advance operational forecasts, monitoring, and analysis. • The two projects target the CPPA goal of improving the scientific basis for operational hydrologic forecasts through use of NOAA (and other) climate forecasts and data products.

  4. Background • The west/east hydrologic forecast systems are founded on almost a decade of NOAA funded development • LDAS project • VIC development, implementation for LDAS region, and 50 year retrospective (Mitchell et al., 2004; Maurer et al., 2002) • OGP GCIP/GAPP • developed approaches for using NCEP seasonal climate model forecasts (Ohio River basin and East Coast) • CDEP/ARCS • extension of retrospective simulations to 1915; expansion of forecast activities to westwide domains; exploration of shorter lead forecasts • NOAA OHD offered a letter of support for the current project • NASA funding has also played a role (NSIPP/GMAO)

  5. West-wide System

  6. 2004 2006 2005 East-wide System West Side (Washington) East Side (Princeton)

  7. Both Systems Research Objectives • To understand the predictability of the hydrological cycle at medium range and seasonal-to-interannual timescales • To develop the seasonal / medium range hydrological prediction capability for the U.S. • To develop the real-time drought monitoring capability for the U.S. • Test and implement improved data assimilation methods for both in situ and remotely sensed data • Various applications related goals, e.g., link to reservoir system models for reservoir contents analysis

  8. Both Systems VIC Snowpack State Soil Moisture State

  9. Both Systems Streamflow Routing Network 1/8 degree, Ohio R. basin

  10. soil moisture snowpack streamflow, soil moisture, snow water equivalent, runoff local scale (1/8 degree) weather inputs INITIAL STATE VIC Hydrologic model spin up Hydrologic forecast simulation NCDC COOP station obs. up to 3 months from current index stn. real-time met. forcings for spin-up gap ensemble forecasts ESP traces CPC-based outlook NCEP CFS ensemble NSIPP-1 ensemble Observed SWE Assimilation SNOTELUpdate 25th Day, Month 0 1-2 years back Month 12 West-wide System UW Forecast Approach Schematic

  11. Multiple GCM Ensemble Forecast Obs. Climatology Climate indices Teleconnection GCM resolution and Coarser Large scale 1/8 degree 1/8 degree Monthly time step Bayesian Merging 1/8 degree daily time step Weather “Generator” (resampling and scaling historical time series) LSM VIC Noah SAC ESP VIC Noah SAC NLDAS (initial conditions) Bayesian Merging Routing East-wide System Seasonal Hydrological Prediction System

  12. West-wide System www.hydro.washington.edu/ forecast/westwide/

  13. East-wide System http://hydrology.princeton.edu/forecast

  14. Spatial Forecasts of Variable Fields Both Systems Precip Temp SWE Runoff Soil Moisture Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06

  15. Topics • Science Questions and Objectives • Background on both forecasting systems • Operational applications research areas • - seasonal forecasting • -- climate forecasts • -- initial conditions estimates • - shorter lead forecasting (15 day) • - drought monitoring • External Interactions

  16. Applications: climate forecast Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) recent met data to generate “perfect” ICs ensemble of historical met data to generate ensemble forecast Spin-up ICs Forecast observed hydrologic state

  17. Applications: climate forecast CPC Seasonal Outlook Use Challenge: Seasonal (3-month) probabilities must be converted to daily meteorological values at the scale of the hydrology model

  18. Clicking the stream flow forecast map also accesses current basin-averaged conditions Applications: streamflow Streamflow Forecast Details Flow location maps give access to monthly hydrograph plots, and also to raw forecast data.

  19. Applications: climate forecast Bayesian Merging of Information Posterior Likelihood function (relates local scale to GCM scale and above) Prior (local climatology) 1/8th degree scale variable Variable at GCM scale and above Bayes Theorem

  20. Climatological Forecast Applications: streamflow forecast Streamflow: 198805 Forecast

  21. Applications: soil moisture forecast Realtime forecasts (Target month: 200511) Target Month 200511 Lead 2 months Soil is likely to be drier than normal Target Month 200511 Lead 1 month Soil will be drier than normal with more certainty

  22. Applications: soil moisture forecast Drought Monitoring (Forecast Validation)

  23. VIC VIC VIC Applications: drought analysis / prediction Realtime Drought Monitoring Princeton, 1/8 degree UW, ½ degree same method Long-term Historical Observed Atmos. Forcing Realtime Atmos. Forcing NLDAS Realtime Atmos. Forcing Long-term Hydrological States Realtime Hydrological States Realtime Hydrological States Drought-related Analysis and Nowcast

  24. Applications: drought analysis / prediction Real-time Daily Nowcast SM, SWE

  25. Applications: drought analysis / prediction Realtime Drought Monitoring

  26. Applications: 15-day forecasts UW is implementing a 15-day global real-time hydrologic forecast Initially using T. Hamill’s “reforecast” datasets to allow bias-correction As procedures stabilize, 15-day forecasts will be incorporated into the US systems.

  27. Applications: Multi-model forecasts Bayesian Merging of Multi-LSM forecasts Testing in 3 basins (Salmon, Gunnison, Feather)- retrospective (simulation AND ensemble forecast modes) Monthly Avg Flow

  28. Topics • Science Questions and Objectives • Background on both forecasting systems • Applications areas • - seasonal forecasting • -- climate forecasts • -- initial conditions estimates • - shorter lead forecasting (15 day) • - drought monitoring • External Interactions

  29. NOAA Applied Science Users with Real Needs West-wide Interactions

  30. West-wide Interactions Hydrologic prediction and the NRCS PNW Snow water content on April 1 SNOTEL Network McLean, D.A., 1948 Western Snow Conf. April to August runoff

  31. West-wide Interactions External Interactions U. Arizona / USBR forecast study, Lower Colorado basin NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment Princeton University Hydrologic Forecast System Miscellaneous: Seattle City Light, energy traders, hydropower utilities, NOAA regional climate offices 3TIER Environmental Forecast Group NRCS National Water and Climate Center UW Climate Impacts Group (CIG) Annual Water Outlook meetings UW Hydrologic Forecast and Nowcast Systems NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) testbed activities UW Rick Palmer Group Puget Sound region flow forecasts Klamath R. Basin Bureau of Reclamation new US Drought Monitor NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s US Drought Outlook Columbia River Inter-tribal Fish Commission UCI / California Dept of Water Resources WA State Dept of Ecology & Yakima R. Basin Bureau of Reclamation

  32. Interactions UW methods used in real-time CPC-based forecasts produced for a City of Seattle Water Utilities Consortium

  33. West-wide andEast-wide Interactions • NCEP EMC • (Ken Mitchell, Youlong Xia, and others) SWE NOAH undersimulated snow RUNOFF early runoff peak

  34. Future Plans • Westwide System – • Finish streamflow forecasting implementation for Western half of US • Implement reservoir contents forecasts • Explore approaches for incorporating 15-day forecasts • Refine snow-related data assimilation • Eastwide System - • Finish streamflow forecasting implementation for Eastern half of US • Expand inputs to Bayesian merging of climate forecasts • Both - • Continue testing and transfer of various elements to NCEP EMC • Resolve UW-Princeton method differences as two forecasting domains are knit together

  35. Thank you -- Questions?

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