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An Introduction to Wargaming 10 March 2008

An Introduction to Wargaming 10 March 2008. Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. Chief, Wargaming Plans & Programs Directorate Air Force Research Laboratory. Case Number AFRL 06-0042 Distribution A: Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. Disclaimer.

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An Introduction to Wargaming 10 March 2008

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  1. An Introduction toWargaming10 March 2008 Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. Chief, Wargaming Plans & Programs Directorate Air Force Research Laboratory Case Number AFRL 06-0042 Distribution A: Approved for public release; distribution unlimited

  2. Disclaimer The views expressed in this briefing are those of the speaker and do not necessarily represent those of the Air Force Research Laboratory or the United States Air Force.

  3. My Bio • Civilian positions • Professor of Wargaming, ACSC • Research Associate, SAAS • USAFR Assignments • Senior Reservist, AFRL, Info Directorate • Chief Wargaming, AF/XOOC (Checkmate) • Co-author Gulf War Fact Book

  4. Why Should I Care?

  5. Why Should I Care?

  6. Overview • History • Definitions • Applications • Lessons from the History of Wargaming

  7. …and they have often beencredited with making thedifference between victoryand defeat A One Slide History of Wargaming Wargames are literally as old as civilization…

  8. What is a Wargame?

  9. What is a Wargame? Wargame Armed Conflict Sim Game Multi Sided Simulation Over Time Model Proportional Representation Reality

  10. What is a Wargame?

  11. What is a Wargame? Types of Wargames • Each has advantages and disadvantages • Some wargames include all three

  12. What is a Wargame? Methods of Adjudication Rule Based or BOGSAT Umpires

  13. What is a Wargame? Methods of Adjudication Computerized M&S Rule Based or BOGSAT Umpires

  14. Types of Constructive Wargames Computerized Miniatures/Terrain Table Map/Chart/Paper

  15. Applications Civil Use of Wargaming • Recreational • Educational Defense Uses of Wargaming • Develop Strategist – Professional Development • Develop Strategies – Decision Support

  16. Develop Strategies National Theater Local Decision Support Spectrum of Military Wargaming Today Develop Strategists War College Staff College Branch Schools Professional Dev Strategic Operational Tactical

  17. Develop Strategist – Professional Development Develop Strategists War College Staff College Branch Schools Professional Dev Strategic Operational Tactical

  18. Develop Strategist – Professional Development Strategic Operational Tactical Initial Intermediate Senior

  19. Develop Strategies National Theater Local Decision Support Develop Strategies – Decision Support Strategic Operational Tactical

  20. Federal Budget Process Defense Planning Systems QDR OSD JSR Annual Report JCS JV 20xx Comb.Cdr NMS CPA CPA Svs CPG I INITIATION ACRONYMSOUP JSPS JSCP JSCP POMs PROGRAMMING V SUPPORT PLANS PDMs DPG CRS JWCA PLANNING II CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT JQRR IPLs CPR CPR BESs JROC JPD JPD PPBS JOPES CAP IV PLAN REVIEW President’s Budget FYDP BUDGETING III PLAN DEVELOPMENT PBDs DP

  21. Wargaming as Decision AideUS Government, DoD/CoComs/Services Strategic Planning National Strategy Campaign Planning Theater Strategy Force Planning Service Strategy Pol/Mil Theater Wargaming Title 10

  22. Strategic Wargaming and The Defense Planning Systems Strategic Planning National Strategy Pol/Mil

  23. National Strategy Pol/Mil Wargaming • Joint and Interagency • BOGSAT adjudicated • Not only secret – very close hold

  24. Strategic Wargaming and The Defense Planning Systems Immediate - Orders Mid term – JSCP* Strategic Planning National Strategy Campaign Planning Theater Strategy Theater Wargaming JSCP = Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan

  25. JSCP Theater Strategy, Campaign Wargaming Deliberate Planning IPL Concept Development Plan Review Plan Development Supporting Plans Initiation OPLAN CONPLAN FUNCPLAN No Plan Expand Develop Event Modify Execution Course of Action Development Course of Action Selection Execution Planning Situation Development Crisis Assessment OPORD Crisis Action Planning Campaign Plan OPORDs

  26. Adaptive Planning

  27. Strategic Wargaming and The Defense Planning Systems Defense Planning Guidance Strategic Planning National Strategy Force Planning Service Strategy Title 10

  28. Service Strategy, Title 10 WargamingExample Air Force Even Year AF/XOX Odd Year AF/XPX Execution Actionable Insights Lessons Learned from Joint, Service, Other Events Service Responsibility Lessons Learned to Further Explore Service & RCCs AF Corporate Structure POM Lessons Learned to Further Explore RCCs POM 2 X POM 4 X POM

  29. Lessons From The History of Wargaming So far we have covered: • What wargames are • What are their applications Now we will cover: • How to receive the maximum benefit from wargaming

  30. Professional Development Efficient Minimize cost in $$ Minimize cost in time Deployable Effective Memorable Fits curriculum Avoids “dis-training” Decision Support Efficient Minimize cost in $$ Minimize cost in time Deployable Effective Fit to adversary/scenario being considered Probability envelope of outcomes matches actual envelope More Value From Wargaming

  31. Assessing Relative ConfidenceIn Wargame Outcomes

  32. How Accurate Is Wargaming? • Each wargame is one pass through a series of chance events - play many wargames and a range of outcomes will occur:

  33. How Accurate Is Wargaming? • Each war is one pass through a series of chance events – as such many outcomes are possible while some are more likely then others

  34. How Accurate Is Wargaming? • Each war is one pass through a series of chance events – however what actually happened is not necessarily the most likely outcome. X +

  35. How Accurate Is Wargaming? • At best the outcome distribution of our wargames should match the outcome distribution of reality- then wargames can suggest which outcomes are possible along with relative likelihood.

  36. How Accurate Is Wargaming? • However BOGSAT adjudicated wargames are so time consuming they typically produce only one outcome. Even if the most likely outcome is determined the range and likelihood of other outcomes is not captured X

  37. How Accurate Is Wargaming? • Even when there are many runs the outcome distribution of wargames seldom matches the outcome distribution of reality War Wargame

  38. Coping with Uncertainty • Achieve the best accuracy you can given your goals and resources • Honestly assess and communicate the “standard deviation” of your wargame

  39. Sources of Inaccuracy • Situation Never Happens • Unrealistic Scenario • Heisenberg Effect WG • Red does not follow plan • Faulty depiction of Red • Heisenberg Effect • Blue does not follow plan • Heisenberg Effect

  40. Toward More Effective Scenarios • Collaborative/Joint Development • Increased use of “Move Zero”

  41. Depicting Blue More Accurately “Players” during wargame need to be decision makers during actual event • Combining Deliberate and Crisis Action Planning (CAP) • Wargames increasingly Joint and Combined • Increased interagency NGO participation Also, increased professional development wargaming should increase overall quality of Blue play.

  42. Depicting Red More Accurately “This is not (exactly) the enemy we wargamed against.” Lt Gen William Wallace Commanding Gen V Corps Operation Iraqi Freedom

  43. Depicting Red More Accurately Easy • Study Red History • Study Red Culture • Study Red Doctrine

  44. Depicting Red More Accurately Less Easy • Determine Objectives • Determine Training Heritage • Determine Planning Methods

  45. Depicting Red More Accurately Hard • Determine how Red is actually training • Determine how Red sees Blue • Anticipate when Red will shift strategy/doctrine

  46. Assessing the Likelihood of Accurate Adjudication Factor More Accurate Less Accurate Executions Many Few Factors Physical Sci Social Sci Scope Detailed Comprehensive Level Tactical Strategic Adversary Symmetric Asymmetric Doctrinaire / Centralized Decentralized Technology Old New Strategy Attrition Effects

  47. Achieving More Accurate AdjudicationHistorical Challenges • Command interference in adjudication • Failure to adjudicate key factor • Failure to adjudicate full event • “Bad” data

  48. Achieving More Accurate AdjudicationEmerging Challenges • New Threats • Asymmetric Adversaries • Global Terrorism • Anti Access • New (and rediscovered) Concepts • Network Central Warfare • Effects Based Operations • Campaign Planning • New (and rediscovered) Tasks • Rapid Adaptive Planning • Expeditionary Air Operations • Winning the Peace

  49. Wargaming Today Existing Models By Duration Depicted “Months to Years” Conflict Level “Days to Months” Campaign Level Models “Hours to Days” Mission Level Models “Seconds to Hours” Engineering and Engagement Models

  50. 3rd Generation - system on system 2nd Generation - force on force 1st Generation - mind on mind Generations of Wargaming EFFECTS ATTRITION STRATEGY Evolve the State of the Art

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