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INPUTS EAA plus 1998 (Fact) Expectations (Normative) Political variables (Normative)

IDARA plus QA for agricultural sector models Keywords: Quality management, Lowering autocracy, Complex Check lists Dr. László Pitlik, University of Gödöllő http://miau.gau.hu/miau/48. INPUTS EAA plus 1998 (Fact) Expectations (Normative) Political variables (Normative)

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INPUTS EAA plus 1998 (Fact) Expectations (Normative) Political variables (Normative)

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  1. IDARA plus QA for agricultural sector models Keywords: Quality management, Lowering autocracy, Complex Check lists Dr. László Pitlik, University of Gödöllő http://miau.gau.hu/miau/48 INPUTS EAA plus 1998 (Fact) Expectations (Normative) Political variables (Normative) Trends (Normative) Elasticities (Normative) OUTPUTS EAA plus 2006 (Estimation) Check list (Estimation) Reports with balances Visualisation Effects Model Important Aspects: Statistical values have never been consistent itself, therefore they have to be modified / completed on the basis of assumptions. We may talk about FACT values only after these restrictions. These modifications may lead to sensible exogenous variables (e.g.: fallow land, grass land). All the other inputs are assumptions from experts. For the yield trends AI based similarity analyses have to be used to assure authenticity of the estimations (Complex evaluation criteria are not given for the World market prices). Elasticities can not be easily (algorithmically) defined, but fortunately they don`t cause too much sensitivity for the model. Important Aspects: The Output EAA should be the same detailed as the Input EAA. For satisfying the expectations (input side) the check list values visualising (“green wave”). In the case of an unfulfilled expectation/restriction have to go through an iterative way (through changing a known /sensitive/ assumption). The report about the outputs should never be partial. It should better balance based, for proving the authenticity of the results for all the times. Without check listed expectations, without objective functions where assumptions are predefined, all the results are arbitrary. REMARKS: FACT = (quasi) the consistent reality, on the base of statistical data (after ABTA – rules) Estimation = Forecasts, endogenous values (algorithmical defined for all the cases) Normative = Hypothesis, Assumptions for exogenous variables (with different impacts for the model sensitivity) ABTA = Balances for products and monetary stream/flow (additional: Biological coefficients for animal breeding) AI = Artificial Intelligence (for assuring the authenticity of the intuitive assumptions) EAA plus = Activity-, regional, technology-, legal form based EAA

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