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Did we reach the 2005 targets? Will we achieve the Millennium Development Goals?

This article examines the progress made in achieving the global TB control targets set for 2005 and discusses the potential for achieving the Millennium Development Goals. It highlights the need for robust and funded country-owned plans, stronger monitoring and evaluation, and a deeper understanding of the impact of TB control.

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Did we reach the 2005 targets? Will we achieve the Millennium Development Goals?

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  1. Did we reach the 2005 targets? Will we achieve the Millennium Development Goals?

  2. World Health Assembly 1991 "…attain a global target of cure of 85% sputum-positive patients under treatment and detection of 70% of cases by the year 2000"

  3. Targets for global TB controlMILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS"to have halted and begun to reverse incidence.." Implementation (DOTS)Target year Case detection 70% 2005 Treatment success 85% 2004/5 Impact Prevalence 50% of ≈ 300/100K 2015 Deaths 50% of ≈ 30/100K (<1m) 2015 Incidence <1 per million 2050

  4. OVER 26 MILLION TB PATIENTS TREATED UNDER DOTS WORLDWIDE WHO target 59% 53% 45% 37% 32% CASE DETECTION (%) 28% 24% 22% 18% 16% 94 95 96 97 98 99 01 02 03 04 05

  5. Trends in case notification rates in Viet Nam, 1997-2004 8 4 Annual percentage change 0 -4 -8 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ total Women Total Men

  6. TB control in India No state shows marked decline in notification rate attributable to lower transmission Best performers show steady rise 70 1.1% 60 9.6% 50 Reported smear+ cases per 100K 40 3.9% 30 Kerala W Bengal Rajasthan 20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

  7. Did we reach the 2005 targets? No, but… • 59/70 + 84/85 = a near miss • Over 26m patients treated in 11 yr • Target detection in ≈ 57 countries • Target cure in ≈ 60 countries • Both targets reached in W Pacific • On threshold of falling incidence

  8. Will we achieve the Millennium Development Goals? Yes, if… • Global Plan turned into robust, funded, country-owned plans to implement the Stop TB Strategy • Stronger monitoring & evaluation to guide action, and a deeper understanding of impact of TB control

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