2009 TCC presentation

1. 2009 TCC presentation Joint Typhoon Warning Center Operational Outlook LCDR Mike Vancas JTWC Ops Officer

2. 2009 TCC presentation Overview • JTWC Services • Operational Challenges in 2008 • New in 2009 • Contact Information

3. 2009 TCC presentation Satellite Analysis Position Fix every 3 hours – VIS, IR, Multi-spectral Intensity Estimate every 6 hours – Dvorak Technique Code and Transmit Bulletin Process Other Agencies’ Fixes Microwave Fixes as available • • • • •

4. 2009 TCC presentation JTWC Services Warnings/TCFA/Bulletins/Prog Reasoning PTTUZYUW RHHMFWCXXXX XXXXXXX-UUUU-RHMCSUU ZNR UUUU P 100551Z AUG 06 FM NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//JTWC// TO AL 459 AIG 459 HSV WESTPAC EXPRESS MV MONTAUK USNS WALTER S DIEHL USNS WATKINS BT UNCLAS //N03145// PASS TO OFFICE CODES: PSBR BCST//SID 80// DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN /AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZAUG2006// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZAUG2006// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100153ZAUG2006// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ ABPW10 PGTW 100600 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 100000Z SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 08W (SAOMAI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 122.5E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 140 KNOTS GUSTING TO 170 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 100300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) AT 100000Z TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (BOPHA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 116.5E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN33 PGTW 100300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 151.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 150.0E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING AND AN ELONGATED, WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 092230Z SSMI PASS INDICATES MOSTLY LINEAR CONVERGENCE OVER AND SOUTH- EAST OF GUAM WITH CONVERGENT FLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 15- TO 20-KNOT WESTERLY WIND BURST ALONG 5N WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MARIANAS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED CYCLONIC TURNING INDUCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES EQUATORWARD OF THE DISTURBANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. Products Available on: • http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC • DMS • JOTS • JMV

5. 2009 TCC presentation JTWC Services Significant Tropical Weather Advisory • Also known as ABIO/ABPW – Issued at 0600Z (ABPW) and 1800Z (ABIO) • Covers 24 Hour period • May be reissued as needed to reflect updates and development changes – Covers both Northern and Southern Hemispheres • Two sections each, Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Disturbances

6. 2009 TCC presentation JTWC Services Significant Tropical Weather Advisory (cont.) • Tropical Cyclone section will reflect most recent position at bulletin issue time (or reissue as appropriate) for each active Cyclone (warning status) • Tropical Disturbance section – Tropical Disturbances discussed relative to development potential within next 24 hours (period of bulletin coverage) • 3 Classifications Poor, Fair, Good – Poor – Development not expected during forecast period – Fair – Meteorological conditions increasingly favorable, but development not commenced – Good – Meteorological conditions are favorable AND development has commenced. » TCFA will be issued on all ‘Good’ areas

7. 2009 TCC presentation Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTXS21 PGTW 081500 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 70.9E TO 19.1S 67.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 081400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 70.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 69.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 70.2E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 081226Z SSMIS IMAGE CONTINUE TO DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A DEFINED LLCC AND MULTIPLE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. PREVIOUS SHIP REPORTS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SUPPORT A 25-30 KNOT SYSTEM WITH SLP NEAR 1002 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY HINDERED BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO LOWER VWS WITHIN 12-24 HOURS AND SHOULD ALSO TAP INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW TO ITS SOUTH, RESULTING IN IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN TO 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, TIGHT BANDING, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND EXPECTED TRACK INTO AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 091500Z.// • Issued on all ‘Good’ Areas • Valid for 24 Hours • Reissued, upgraded to warning or cancelled

8. 2009 TCC presentation Warnings • JTWC issues warnings in Western North Pacific (West of Date Line) – Tropical systems reach 25 Knots closed circulation – Warnings are Issued to 120 Hours (5 days) – Text bulletins are posted to Navy Oceanography Portal, JAAWIN, GTS and via Message Traffic – Graphical products posted to NOP

9. 2009 TCC presentation Warnings (cont) • Warnings include forecast track, intensity and wind radii (through 72 hours) – Graphical products include error swath – Wind probability products produced as well

10. 2009 TCC presentation Graphical Warning Product Forecast Summary Forecast Track CPA Bearing Error Swath Forecast Wind radii Forecast Tau (DD/HH) Warning Position

11. 2009 TCC presentation Forecast Cycle 00-01Z: Import Fixes Evaluate Observational Data Create and Send Bogus Best-track TCs and Suspect Areas 01-03Z: Evaluate Guidance (Models, etc.) Develop Forecast (Track, Intensity, Structure) Create Warning Products Transmit Warning Products 00Z 03-04Z: Complete Administrative Tasks Communicate with Customers Import Fixes Create 3-hr Position Update 04-05Z: Update Situational Awareness Assess Suspect Areas Create Advisories and Alerts 06Z 18Z 12Z 05-06Z: Evaluate new data Re-Best TCs and Suspect Areas Watch Team Discussion Repeated 4 X per day

12. 2009 TCC presentation Warnings Special Services 3 Hour Updated Position • Updated Position (JTUP) – Estimated Position issued when: • Tropical Cyclone within 180 NM of: – Cheju Island – Guam – Okinawa – Sasebo – Iwakuni – Yokosuka • One of above sets TC Condition of Readiness (TCCOR) II or higher • Requested by PACOM

13. 2009 TCC presentation Warnings Special Services Conference Call • Conference Calls • Available to operational forecasters via dial-up at 2130Z when the JTWC 72-hr 35kt wind radii area falls on major DoD concentration areas. • Discussion covers synoptic picture, storm analysis, forecast track, forecast intensity, track uncertainty, etc. – Discussion does not cover TC COR • JTWC provides conference website – https://pzal.nmci.navy.mil/Confcall/confcall.html • Participation is encouraged – DSN (315) 455-9934 – COM (808) 655-9934 • Host Code: 865656

14. 2009 TCC presentation Warning Special Services Wind Probabilities • Provides indication of confidence in forecast • Offered for Northwest Pacific only • Password reqd.

15. 2009 TCC presentation Operational Challenges West Pacific Track Errors WPAC 24, 48, 72-Hour Mean Error (nm) WPAC 96, 120-Hour Mean Error (nm) 450 24 HR 500 400 5-Year Mean (24 HR) 48 HR 450 5-Year Mean (48 HR) 350 72 HR 400 5-Year Mean (72 HR) 300 350 300 250 Error (nm) 96 hr 5 yr mean (96) 120 hr 5 yr mean (120) Error (nm) 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year

16. 2009 TCC presentation Operational Challenges West Pacific Track Errors 01W JTWC 2008 ERRORS PER STORM 02W 03W 04W 900 05W 06W 800 07W 08W 09W 700 10W 11W 600 12W 13W 500 14W 15W 16W 400 17W 18W 300 19W 20W 21W 200 22W 23W 100 24W 25W 26W 0 27W 0 12 24 36 48 72 96 120

17. 2009 TCC presentation Operational Challenges Numerical Weather Prediction TY 07W Consensus TY 07W Forecast Tracks

18. 2009 TCC presentation Operational Challenges • Frequent military TDO turnover. • Interruptions to back office functions – Military Turnover and back office functionality interruptions should be mitigated by civilianization of Tech Dev and TDO positions

19. 2009 TCC presentation JTOPS Contact Info • If you have any questions or concerns, contact me at: michael.vancas@navy.(smil).mil COM: (808) 471-4597 DSN: (315) 471-4597 TDO: tdo.nfmc_jtwc@navy.mil (Subj: For JTOPS)