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Seasonal Climate Diagnostics Consortium: Analysis of the NDJF 2002-03 climate

This report examines the climate forecasts and observations for the NDJF (November, December, January, February) 2002-03 period in the Northeastern United States. It explores the accuracy of the forecasts and compares them with the observed surface temperature and precipitation anomalies. The study also includes reliability diagrams and signal-to-noise analyses.

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Seasonal Climate Diagnostics Consortium: Analysis of the NDJF 2002-03 climate

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  1. Seasonal Climate Diagnostics Consortium: Analysis of the NDJF 2002-03 climate forecasts and observations in NE U.S. (What the heck happened?) Tony Barnston, Arun Kumar, Lisa Goddard and Marty Hoerling CDPW, October 2003, Reno, Nevada

  2. ‘ ‘ o

  3. CDC’s multi-model AGCM-mimicking CCA: Forecast made Nov 2002 for DJF 2002/03

  4. DJF 2002-03 Surface Temperature Made November using predicted SST _______________________________________________________

  5. Canonical surface temperature El Nino response

  6. Canonical surface temperature El Nino response

  7. Canonical precipitation El Nino response

  8. CPC temperature forecast for DJF 2002-03 Made mid-November

  9. IRI temperature forecast for DJF 2002-03 Made mid-November

  10. DJF 2002-03 Observed SST Anomaly

  11. X= significant error in IRI’s SST forecast X X X

  12. CDC DJF 2002-03 From observed SST

  13. From NOAA Climate Prediction Center wow wow gee whiz

  14. Sign-Agreement Diagrams 200mb height 5 models plus obs 5 models

  15. Signal-to-Noise

  16. “Noise”

  17. Signal-to-Noise

  18. Signal-to-Noise

  19. Ens Avg Individual ensemble members from the various models

  20. 200mb

  21. 200mb

  22. 200mb

  23. 200mb

  24. 200mb

  25. 200mb

  26. 200mb

  27. Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly (deviation from 0.5) 200mb Toward AGCM-generated probability forecasts

  28. Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly (deviation from 0.5) 200mb

  29. Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly (deviation from 0.5) 200mb

  30. Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly (deviation from 0.5) 200mb

  31. Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly (deviation from 0.5) 200mb

  32. Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly (deviation from 0.5) 200mb

  33. Fraction of ensemble members having positive anomaly (deviation from 0.5) 200mb

  34. 5 models 5 models 5 models + obs + obs + obs 5 models 5 models 5 models NDJF NDJF NDJF 2000-01 2001-02 1997-98

  35. Reliability Diagram 1997-2001

  36. Reliability Diagram longer “AMIP” period from Goddard et al. 2003 (EGS-AGU-EUG)

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