Coordinated US Initiative on Emissions Research Dec 4, 2009 Boulder, Colorado

1. Coordinated US Initiative on Emissions ResearchDec 4, 2009Boulder, Colorado NEI Perspective US EPA Office of Air Quality Planning & Standards Emissions Inventory and Analysis Group Marc Houyoux (houyoux.marc@epa.gov) Lee Tooly (tooly.lee@ epa.gov)

2. NEI Perspective EPA’s National Emissions Inventory (NEI) Profile Development partners Data coverage: space / time/ species Uses Distribution and use / international focus NEI data improvements Emissions modeling – post processing Status of EPA’s emission modeling platforms Development cycle Planned improvements Summary of key interests

3. Profile of the NEI • Developed in partnership with State, Local, and Tribal air agencies; Industry; EPA’s OAQPS, OTAQ, CAMD,….. • Published annually by EPA’s Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards • Geographic Coverage • Entire U.S. • Individual process level inventory for point sources • County level inventory for non-point and mobile sources • Pollutant Coverage • Ozone precursors: VOC, NOX,CO • Direct PM emissions: PM10 and PM2.5 • PM precursors: SO2, NH3 • Lead • Air toxics: 188 HAPs • Future: Final GHG data from mandatory reporting rule

4. Profile of the NEI • Uses of the NEI • Regional- and local-scale air quality & human exposure modeling • NAAQS attainment and future projections • Control strategy analysis • Regulatory impact analysis • Risk exposure assessment studies • Multi-pollutant sector based regulatory analyses • Emission trends and program accountability • Permits and compliance • Public reporting • International reporting • Research

5. NEI Data Distribution and Use • New tool to help us do our job better <Emissions Inventory System> EIS • Will generate EPA’s multi-pollutant NEI for 2008 and beyond • To include final GHG data from mandatory reporting rule Trading and accounting system will be housed elsewhere • Maintains principle of state ownership • NEI will benefit from more systematic QC/QA of state data • Will allow multiple emissions data sources from other trusted users • NEI access points: • CHIEF website http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/index.html • EIS Gateway • Emissions modeling clearinghouse • 2002 and 2005 available now; 2008 available Dec 2010

6. NEI Data Distribution and Use • International focus • UNECE LRTAP Convention (Long Range Trans-boundary Air Pollution Treaty) • Annual report – national summary data • NEI 2002 and 2005 post-processed data recently provided for hemispheric model evaluation • OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) • National summary data - much less frequent • US / Canada • Air Quality Agreement: Ozone and PM • Data sharing for air quality modeling domains • Trilateral program assessments – CA / MX / US • Commission for Environmental Cooperation - CEC • NARSTO – better air quality for North America • Developing programs review the NEI data and methods

7. Data Improvements – NEI 2008 Available Dec 2010 • Non-point categories include: • solvent use categories, i.e., architectural coating, surface coating, degreasing • residential heating, including RWC • paved and unpaved roads • open burning • fuel combustion ICI • construction • commercial cooking • Wildfires • Nonroad mobile: rail, airports and commercial marine • Onroad mobile: new MOVES model – beyond 2008 NEI http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/420f09019.pdf • HAP/ toxics characterizations for many industry sectors based on technology and residual risk review • Lead • Oil and gas • Proposed for the future - emission factor improvement program

8. EPA’s Emissions Modeling Platforms • Include inventories and ancillary data formatted for input to the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) modeling system • Ancillary data supports conversion from raw inventories to AQ model-ready • AQ models now supported: CMAQ and CAMx • Platforms posted now: 2001, 2002, 2005 • Support modeling of both criteria and hazardous pollutants • Modeling on continental US domain at 36-km grid resolution, including parts of Canada and Mexico • We are modeling every year: • 2002-based: 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 • 2005-based: 2005, (and planned for next year): 2006, 2007, 2008 • 2008-based (planned): 2008, 2009, 2010 • Funded in part by the Center for Disease Control • Each year has year-specific Electric Generating Utility (EGU), onroad and nonroad mobile, and point-source wildfires and prescribed burning

9. 2008 NEI and Modeling Platform Development Cycle • 2008 NEI development • June, 2010: State submittals due • June-Dec, 2010: EPA review • Dec, 2010: Release 2008 inventory • 2008 Modeling platform development • 2009 – July 2010: Technical approach development • Aug 2010 – Dec 2010: Internal 2008 NEI shakeout • Jan 2011 – Aug 2011: 2008 modeling platform testing and preparation for regulatory uses • 2011 – June 2012: 2009 and 2010 platforms

10. Where we could use help • Identifying areas where sources are missing or estimates are too high • Without new approaches already identified, need to identify new methods, and associated resources • Takes time to implement in the official NEI and modeling platforms • More information on splits of pollutants collected, such as PM2.5 and VOC • Updated emission factors • Inventory post-processing adjustments, such as transportable fractions for dust • Updated activity data or new methods, particularly for nonpoint sources • Estimated current and future emissions from adjacent countries, primarily Canada and Mexico

11. 2008 Modeling Platform Planned Improvements • Use of 2008 NEI as specifically needed and relevant to the modeling • Improved daily allocation of Residential Wood Combustion (RWC) emissions, using temperature and other met data • Improved daily and hourly allocation of animal NH3 emissions, using met data • Complete implementation of MOVES-based emissions for U.S. onroad mobile sources (replaces MOBILE6-based approach) • Updated spatial surrogates for allocation of U.S. emissions to modeling grid cells for nonpoint sources • Possible additional improvements via Office of Research and Development • Revised fugitive dust transportable fraction approach • Windblown dust • MEGAN biogenics model • Fertilizer NH3 flux model imbedded in future CMAQ

12. NEI Perspective Summary of key interests: • How can NOAA activities be translated into improvements for the NEI? • What kind of analysis could we do with the NEI to help you help us? • How does global emissions analyses fit in? Can NOAA activities be translated into improvements for global inventories? The interactions between climate policy and existing/ planned air quality programs are driving the need for global analyses, as well as potential that international emissions play in attainment of U.S. air quality goals. Focus on black carbon and background ozone. i.e., Need to better understand black carbon: • Use of surface and satellite data for model evaluation and improvement of EI (and to • understand the discrepancies between obs. data and model) • Vertical distribution (discrepancies between model and observation) • Black carbon source tagging or source apportionment technique • We want to work with NOAA and global modeling community to provide NEI data useful for their hemispheric modeling needs.

13. Other EPA-supported tools for emissions data and modeling • EIS: The Emission Inventory System is a new system for compiling and providing emission inventory data, starting with the 2008 NEI. http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/eiinformation.html • Webfire: web site that provides fast and complete access to the Agency’s air emissions factors information. http://cfpub.epa.gov/oarweb/index.cfm?action=fire.main • AP-42: Compilation of air pollutant emission factors for point and area sources. http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/ap42/index.html • NMIM: desktop computer application developed by EPA to help you develop estimates of current and future emission inventories for on-road motor vehicles and nonroad equipment. NMIM uses current versions of MOBILE6 and NONROAD to calculate emission inventories, based on multiple input scenarios that you enter into the system. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/nmim.htm • MOVES: Model to compute emissions from onroad mobile sources. http://www.epa.gov/otaq/models/moves/index.htm • NONROAD: Model to compute emissions from nonroad mobile sources. http://www.epa.gov/oms/nonrdmdl.htm • SMOKE: Data processing system to prepare annual and other inventories for use in Eulerian air quality models. http://www.smoke-model.org/index.cfm • BEIS: Model for the estimation of biogenic emissions of VOCs, CO, and NO. http://www.epa.gov/asmdnerl/biogen.html • SPECIATE: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/software/speciate/index.html • Spatial Surrogate Tool: This tool has been developed to create spatial surrogates from shapefiles without the need for GIS. The scriptable tool is provided with the MIMS Spatial Allocator. http://www.cmascenter.org/index.cfm • Speciation Tool: Database tool that creates lumped model species fractions for use in air quality models for VOCs and PM2.5 from raw speciation profile taken from the SPECIATE database. Available upon request. • EMF: Data and case management tool for support of emissions modeling. Provides a user interface for running the SMOKE system. Beta testing ongoing. Not yet publicly available • CMAS help desk: resources for getting help with air quality models and other tools developed by EPA. http://www.cmascenter.org/help_desk.cfm