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Urbanization in Africa: Research confronts Reality

Urbanization in Africa: Research confronts Reality. Hugh Wenban-Smith ( wenban@globalnet.co.uk ). My Project Motivation. Urbanisation is proceeding rapidly in Tanzania It does not seem to be acting as the ‘engine of growth’ it is supposed to be (cf. Asia)

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Urbanization in Africa: Research confronts Reality

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  1. Urbanization in Africa:Research confronts Reality Hugh Wenban-Smith (wenban@globalnet.co.uk)

  2. My Project Motivation • Urbanisation is proceeding rapidly in Tanzania • It does not seem to be acting as the ‘engine of growth’ it is supposed to be (cf. Asia) • Why not? Is this down to Economic Fundamentals or Institutions? • IGC project focuses mainly on economic fundamentals (but institutions may also matter)

  3. Urbanisation: General approach • Not enough to look just at growth of towns and cities • Urban areas are embedded in the wider economy and form an urban system • Need to look at dynamics – e.g. effect of population growth, conditions in rural areas, rural-urban migration and relations between large and small towns • Regional differences may help to identify causes

  4. Recap of Phase 1 • Key findings: • Mainland urbanpopn up 18 times to 12.7m; • Mainland ruralpopn up 3 times to 31m - i.e. Big increase in pressure on land and other natural resources despite rapid urbanisation • Analytical tools: • Propensity for rural out-migration (Prom) • Propensity for regional in-migration (Prim) • Propensity for urban in-migration (Puim) • Big differences between regions: Why?

  5. Regional propensities 1978-2012

  6. Aims in Phase 2 • To relate indicators found in Phase 1 to developments in Tanzanian economy and economic policies • To provide a narrative analysis of urbanisation since Independence • A. At the national level • B. At the regional level • Hope understanding of this narrative will assist in development of policies for urbanisation to maximise its contribution to growth and welfare

  7. Tanzania: Urban growth 1957-2012

  8. A crude specification

  9. Regression results: Prom

  10. Is there a better approach? • Yes: better would be a general equilibrium model which could take fuller account of rural/urban interactions (e.g. Adam et al, 2014) • Also attractive might be dynamic modelling • Beyond resources of this project (also would need to overcome data limitations) • A challenge for the next generation of urban researchers in Tanzania?

  11. What have we learned? • Census-based database on migration and urbanisation established – help yourself! • Some evidence for ‘Rural Push’ in 1978-88 and 1988-2002; pressure of population on land and other resources a cause for concern • A large urban population favours regional in-migration • Greater distance from Dar discourages out-migration • But methods not robust enough to be very confident • More case studies needed to help identify drivers of migration and urbanisation in Tanzania – Regional Annexes provide a starting point

  12. Wider lessons • Census data useful for economic as well as demographic research • Regional studies as valuable as cross-country studies • More NEG insights needed • Rapid population growth is a problem • Role of government (incl. local govt) matters • Strengthening role of Africa’s urban areas as engines of growth remains a major challenge • Research can make a contributionbut focus needs increasingly to be on appropriate urban policies and the mobilisation of resources in support of those policies.

  13. Ed Glaeser to the Rescue? • “Cities, Agglomeration and Spatial equilibrium” (2008) • Urban economists’ bible (takes us under the bonnet) • But … how applicable to developing countries? • Equilibrium?

  14. People and Firms • People choose location to equalise utility. Plausible but in developing countries … • i. Severe frictions; and • ii. Rapid population growth • Firms locate to trade off cost of inputs against market access. OK for modern firms but … • i. What about subsistence farmers? • ii. … and the informal sector?

  15. Builders and Governments • Builders build houses where they are needed up to point where MC = MR. But … • i. Formal housing market poorly developed; • ii. What about informal settlements? • Governments:No role! • Where does infrastructure come from? • So, considerable extension and adaptation needed to achieve a reliable theoretical guide to urbanisation in Africa. • That’s the challenge for us all …

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