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Advancing Climate Models for Future Earth Changes

Explore the latest trends in global CO2 and methane levels, Greenland ice thinning, and rapid melting in low-lying areas. Learn about the expected changes in Earth's chemistry and the laws of physics governing climate models. Discover the components of the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) and its various models like the NCAR CCM3.2 and Parallel Ocean Program (POP). Dive into the numerical methods used in atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice modeling. Gain insight into examples of climate change experiments and simulations, including solar variability scenarios. See how climate modeling is evolving with a focus on detailed interactions and use of large parallel clustered computer systems for more accurate predictions.

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Advancing Climate Models for Future Earth Changes

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  1. Global Climate Modeling Warren M. Washington NCAR April 2000

  2. Global CO2 Trend and Rate of Increase

  3. Global Methane Trends

  4. Snow Cover Trends

  5. Greenland Ice Thinning • Melting in low-lying areas is very rapid at about 3 feet per year….Science Magazine • Most melting on the southern and eastern parts of Greenland • Snowfall not changed much…..it is the glaciers moving faster and melting

  6. Expected Changes in the Earth’s Chemistry • Increased carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxide, lower atmosphere ozone • Decreased CFCs • Increased aerosols from fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning

  7. Parallel Climate Model (PCM)

  8. Laws of Physics in Climate Models • Conservation of Momentum • First Law of Thermodynamics • Conservation of Mass • Ideal Gas Law • Hydrostatic Assumption • Conservation of Water (Vapor and Liquid) • Some models have active atmospheric chemistry and aerosol physics

  9. PCM Component Models • Atmosphere • NCAR CCM3.2 • T42 18 levels • land surface model embedded • SPMD option: 1-D data decomposition (64pe limit) • Ocean • Parallel Ocean Program (POP) • ~2/3 degree horizontal displaced polar grid • 32 levels • 2-D data decomposition

  10. More Components • Sea ice-viscous-plastic Hibler dynamics with relaxation, option for elastic-viscous-plastic, 27 km resolution, and Parkinson-Washington thermodynamics (Zhang, Semtner-NPS; Weatherly-CRREL; Craig-NCAR; Hunke, Dukowicz-LANL) • Parallel flux coupler (Craig, Bettge, Loft, Dennis, James-NCAR; Jones-LANL) • River Transport Model (Branstetter, Famiglietti- U. Texas, Austin; Craig-NCAR)

  11. Sequential Execution of PCM PCM Flux Coupler Sea Ice River Transport CCM3 POP

  12. PCM 1.1 2/3o POP 27 km sea ice T42 CCM3.2 ParallelComputers • PCM 1.1 has been run on the following distributed and shared memory systems: • CRAY T3E900 • SGI Origin 2000/128 • HP SPP2000 • IBM SP2 • Sun Starfire • DEC/Compaq Alpha Cluster • Linux Cluster

  13. View of the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) Model Horizontal Grid at 2/3o Resolution Note high resolution in North Atlantic and near equator.

  14. Numerical Methods • Atmosphere- spherical harmonics, FFT,FD, Lagrangian, semi-implicit • Ocean-FD, solution of Laplacian equation, semi-implicit • Sea Ice-FD

  15. Sequential Execution of PCM PCM Flux Coupler Sea Ice River Transport CCM3 POP

  16. Moving from Message Paradigm to Distributed Shared Memory Paradigm Distributed Shared Memory Message Passing Shared Memory Open MP directives within node and message passing between nodes MPI Communication between PEs Open MP directives within node

  17. Global Atmosphere

  18. Global Ocean

  19. Sea Ice

  20. Deep/Abyssal Northwest Atlantic

  21. ENSO Arctic Oscillation North Atlantic Oscillation Antarctic Circumpolar Wave Regional Climate Aspects

  22. Examples of Climate Change Experiments • Greenhouse gases • Sulfate aerosols (direct and indirect) • Stratospheric ozone • Biomass burning • Historical simulations • Various energy/emissions use strategies

  23. Solar Variability Simulations • In addition to Greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol effects • One of the ensemble shows a global surface temperature change similar to the observed record

  24. Global Surface Temperature Anomaly 1860-1999 Observed 0.6 PCM Simulation 0.4 degrees C 0.2 0.0 -0.2 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year

  25. Present and Future Emphasisfor Climate Modeling • More detailed interactions of atmosphere, land/vegetation/river runoff, ocean and sea ice • Use of large parallel clustered computer systems • Paradigm -- distant collaborations

  26. PCM 1.1 2/3o POP 27 km sea ice T42 CCM3.2 ParallelComputers • PCM 1.1 has been run on the following distributed and shared memory systems: • CRAY T3E900 • SGI Origin 2000/128 • HP SPP2000 • IBM SP2 • Sun Starfire • DEC/Compaq Alpha Cluster • Linux Cluster

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