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Estimation of a Weekend Location Choice Model for Calgary

Estimation of a Weekend Location Choice Model for Calgary. KJ Stefan, City of Calgary JDP McMillan, City of Calgary CR Blaschuk, City of Calgary JD Hunt, University of Calgary. Overall model context. Weekend Household Activity Model (WHAM) Personal weekend travel

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Estimation of a Weekend Location Choice Model for Calgary

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  1. Estimation of a Weekend Location Choice Model for Calgary KJ Stefan, City of Calgary JDP McMillan, City of Calgary CR Blaschuk, City of Calgary JD Hunt, University of Calgary

  2. Overall model context • Weekend Household Activity Model (WHAM) • Personal weekend travel • Tour-based microsimulation model • Emphasis on activities • Partial treatment of household groups • Same household survey as RTM • Sampling evenly across all 7 days • 2342 weekend households

  3. Overall model context • Part of a model system for Calgary • Weekday regional travel model (RTM) • Personal travel • Aggregate model with full nested logit structure • Weekday commercial vehicle model (CVM) • Commercial vehicle travel • Tour-based microsimulation model

  4. Model goals • Part of 24/7 system evaluation • Benefits to all users • Emissions • Analysis of retail and entertainment facilities • Microsimulation input • Learning for weekday activity model

  5. 24/7 Model Coverage

  6. Overall model structure Tour Generation and membership Tour Purpose Tour Mode Trip and stop properties (including location choice)

  7. Two Types of Tours • Growing • Stops organically ‘grow’, chosen one after another • Hybrid Rubber-banding • Primary Stop chosen • Optional Intermediate Stops • Subsequent stops chosen as with growing tours

  8. Growing Tours Home Stop ? Stop

  9. Growing Tours Home Stop Stop

  10. Growing Tours Home Stop Stop ? Stop

  11. Growing Tours Home Stop Stop Stop Stop

  12. Hybrid Tours Home Primary Stop

  13. Hybrid Tours Home Intermediate Stop ? Primary Stop

  14. Hybrid Tours Home Intermediate Stop Primary Stop

  15. Hybrid Tours Home Intermediate Stop ? Primary Stop Stop

  16. Hybrid Tours Home Intermediate Stop Primary Stop Stop

  17. Hybrid Tours Home Intermediate Stop Stop Primary Stop ? Stop

  18. Hybrid Treatment Out of Town Serve Passenger Work School Religious/Civic Exercise Growing Treatment Shopping Entertainment / Leisure Social Eating Tour Purposes

  19. Trip and stop properties Stop purpose Stop location Trip mode Stop duration

  20. Model estimation • Two-stage estimation • Location attractors • Linear regressions by activity • Large number of zonal attributes • Location choice logit model • Combines attractors with travel and group information • In progress; auto complete (most important one at ~65% of trips)

  21. Zonal attributes • Population and demographic • Age ranges, incomes, car ownership • Education spaces by level • Employment by 8 industry types • Park in hectares • Special attractors • Land use typology (calculated)

  22. Special attractors • Institutions: • 3 major post secondary institutions • 3 major hospitals • Airport • Entertainment: • Arts and Culture District • Stampede, Zoo, Heritage Park • Big Box retail

  23. Land use types • 5 land use types: • Low-density • Residential • Commercial (retail) • Industrial • Employment node • Calculated based on employment and population (mix and density)

  24. Low density Residential Commercial Industrial Employment node

  25. Attractors – Work

  26. Attractors - Work

  27. Other attractor functions • Serve Passenger: • Retail, airport, hospitals, education • School: • Student spaces – especially PSE spaces • Religious/Civic: • Population (75+, income), education, retail • Exercise: • Park space, employment, population (65+, income), student spaces

  28. Other attractor functions • Shop: • Retail (esp. commercial zones, big box) • Entertainment/Leisure: • Attractors, population (15-24, income), retail • Social: • Population (15-34, 65+, income), service, retail • Eating: • Retail (commercial, residential), population

  29. Logit estimation • Combining regressed attractors with travel costs and group properties • Generalised travel cost (time and distance) • Presenting one of a set of models • Auto mode • Growing portion of tours only • Represents around 65% of weekend travel

  30. Home Primary Stop Stop Stop Growing tour or hybrid tour after primary stop Stop

  31. Home Primary Stop Stop To cost Stop Stop

  32. Home Primary Stop Stop To cost Return cost Stop Stop

  33. Home Primary Stop Stop To cost Return cost Enclosed angle Stop Stop

  34. Home Primary Stop Stop To cost Return cost Enclosed angle Attractor Stop Stop

  35. Auto Stop Location Parameters

  36. Auto Stop Location Parameters

  37. Example groups • One adult (30+) • One adult, one kid (8) • Two adults • Two adults, two children (8 and 12) • One adult, one senior (82, nondriving)

  38. Example trips • One adult: • <25, shop • 25-29, entertainment • 30+, shop • 30+, eating • Low income, 30+, entertainment

  39. Auto Stop Location Parameters

  40. Auto Stop Model • Sensible results • Costs lest significant for social trips • Return to home costs important, but not as important as to costs • Less mobile members of group add to costs of location choices

  41. Next Steps • Estimate growing tour location choice models for remaining modes (bike and ‘other’) • Estimate models for primary stop and intermediate stop location choices

  42. QUESTIONS • Please Use Microphone

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