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- Session #08

HSM Applications to Rural Multilane Intersections. Exercise III – Prediction of Crash Frequency Performance for Rural Multilane Intersections and Comparison to Substantive Crash Performance. - Session #08. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn.

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- Session #08

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  1. HSM Applications to Rural Multilane Intersections Exercise III – Prediction of Crash Frequency Performance for Rural Multilane Intersections and Comparison to Substantive Crash Performance - Session #08

  2. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Apply Multilane Intersection Crash Prediction models • Compare predicted Crash Frequency performance to Substantive safety performance Learning Outcomes:

  3. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn Intersection Information: MINOR ROADS: Three Signalized intersections with single left turn lanes (no right turn lanes): Bloomingdale Road 16,100 AADT Shopping Center (north and south) 2,400 AADT Main Street-Glen Ellyn 16,700 AADT MAJOR ROAD: IL 64 North Avenue is 37,000 AADT

  4. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn Unsignalized T- Intersections w/o left turn lanes: Mildred 700 AADT Virginia 700 AADT Bernice 700 AADT Western 700 AADT Pearl 1,500 AADT Diane 700 AADT Evergreen 700 AADT Amy 700 AADT Newton 700 AADT Signalized 4-Approach Intersections with left turn lanes: Bloomingdale Road 16,100 AADT Shopping Center (north and south) 2,400 AADT Main Street-Glen Ellyn 16,700 AADT

  5. Crash data for 1986, 1987, 1988 – 3 years Intersections:Total Injury Day Night Mildred 9 2 6 3 Virginia 12 3 9 3 Bernice 16 3 11 5 Western 11 4 7 4 Pearl 22 6 16 6 Diane 16 5 11 5 Evergreen 11 4 7 4 Amy 7 4 4 3 Newton 12 5 8 4 Bloomingdale Rd 170 68 122 48 Shopping Center 18 5 13 5 Main St-Glen Ellyn 146 45 100 46 Totals: 450 154 314 136

  6. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn Study Section: Crash data for 1986, 1987, 1988 – 3 years Total Injury Crashes Crashes Day Night Rdwy Segment 84 26 57 27 12 Intersections 450 154 314 136 Totals: 534 180 371 163

  7. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency Performance for the intersections using the Rural Multilane intersection models for the following: • Bloomingdale Road (signalized) • Shopping Center (signalized) • Main Street-Glen Ellyn (signalized) • Eight “T” non-signalized intersections (700 ADT) • One “T” non-signalized intersection (1,500 ADT) • Use Worksheet Exercise III

  8. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency Performance for the intersections using the Rural Multilane intersection models for the following: • Bloomingdale Road (signalized) Nspf int = exp(a + b ln(AADTmaj) + c ln(AADTmin)) = exp(-7.182 + 0.722ln(37,000) + 0.337ln(16,100) = exp(-7.182 + 7.594 + 3.264) = exp(3.676) = 39.5 crashes per year

  9. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency Performance for the intersections using the Rural Multilane intersection models for the following: • Shopping Center (signalized) Nspf int = exp(a + b ln(AADTmaj) + c ln(AADTmin)) = exp(-7.182 + 0.722ln(37,000) + 0.337ln(2,400) = exp(-7.182 + 7.594 + 2.623) = exp(3.035) = 20.8 crashes per year

  10. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency Performance for the intersections using the Rural Multilane intersection models for the following: • Main Street-Glen Ellyn (signalized) Nspf int = exp(a + b ln(AADTmaj) + c ln(AADTmin)) = exp(-7.182 + 0.722ln(37,000) + 0.337ln(16,700) = exp(-7.182 + 7.594 + 3.277) = exp(3.689) = 40.0 crashes per year

  11. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the intersections using the Rural Multilane intersection models for the following: • Eight “T” stop control of approach at 700 AADT Nspf int = exp(a + b ln(AADTmaj) + c ln(AADTmin)) = exp(-12.526 + 1.204ln(37,000) + 0.236ln(700) = exp(-12.526 + 12.664 + 1.546) = exp(1.684) = 5.39 crashes per year

  12. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the intersections using the Rural Multilane intersection models for the following: • Eight “T” stop control of approach at 700 ADT • For eight locations: N = 8 x 5.39 = 43.1 crashes per year

  13. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency Performance for the intersections using the Rural Multilane intersection models for the following: • one “T” stop control of approach at 1,500 ADT Nrural = exp(a + b LN(AADTmajor)+ c (AADTminor)) = exp(-12.526 + 1.204ln(37,000) + 0.236ln(1,500) = exp(-12.526 + 12.664 + 1.726) = exp(1.864) = 6.5 crashes per year

  14. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Total the Predicted Crash Frequency performance for all intersections Bloomingdale Road (signalized) Shopping Center (signalized) Main Street-Glen Ellyn (signalized) Eight “T” non-signalized intersections (700 AADT) One “T” non-signalized intersection (1,500 AADT) 39.5 20.8 40.0 43.1 6.4 Total 149.9

  15. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Compare the Substantive Intersection Crash Frequency Performance to the Predicted Crash Frequency Performance: Substantive Safety Performance = 450 in 3 yrs 150 per year Predicted Crash Frequency Performance = 149.9 per year Substantive Safety Performance less than Predicted Crash Frequency? About Same

  16. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Comparison of the Total Predicted Crash Frequency to Actual performance for all intersections: Predicted Actual Bloomingdale Road (signalized) Shopping Center (signalized) Main Street-Glen Ellyn (signalized) Eight “T” non-signalized intersections (700 AADT) One “T” non-signalized intersection (1,500 AADT) 39.5 56.7 20.8 6.0 40.0 48.7 43.1 31.3 6.4 7.3 Total 149.9 150.0

  17. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Applied Multilane Intersection Crash Frequency Prediction models • Compared predicted Crash Frequency performance to Substantive Safety performance Learning Outcomes:

  18. Exercise III – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn Questions and Discussion

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