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CAIR / CAMR Update

CAIR / CAMR Update. Presentation for EPRI CEM Users Group Meeting Beth Murray Clean Air Markets Division U.S. EPA Office of Air and Radiation May 9, 2007. States controlled for fine particles (annual SO 2 and NOx). States controlled for ozone (ozone season NOx).

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CAIR / CAMR Update

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  1. CAIR / CAMR Update Presentation for EPRI CEM Users Group Meeting Beth Murray Clean Air Markets Division U.S. EPA Office of Air and Radiation May 9, 2007

  2. States controlled for fine particles (annual SO2 and NOx) States controlled for ozone (ozone season NOx) States controlled for both fine particles (annual SO2 and NOx) and ozone (ozone season NOx) States not covered by CAIR CAIR: Affected Region and Emission Caps Emission Caps* (million tons) 2009/20102015 Annual SO2 3.6 2.5 (2010) Annual NOx 1.5 1.3 (2009) Seasonal NOx .58 .48 (2009) *For the affected region.

  3. CAIR Implementation Timeline CSP Early Emission Reductions Start (annual CAIR NOx program) (‘07 and ‘08) CAIR NOx Programs Annual: Jan 1, 2009 Ozone: May 1, 2009 CAIR SO2 Program Jan 1, 2010 Petitioners’ briefs due March 5, 2007 SO2 Monitoring and Reporting Required (‘09) NOx Monitoring and Reporting Required (‘08) 08 09 07 10 Abbreviated SIPs due March 31, 2007 Record allocations under approved SIP or FIP September 30, 2007 Abbr. SIP allocations due April 30, 2007 EPA’s brief due June 13, 2007

  4. CAIR State Rule Development How are States Meeting the CAIR Requirements? • Positions in some States may change, but an April 2007 EPA survey indicates: • All 29 affected jurisdictions (28 States + DC) are expected to be part of the trading program • 6 States may impose tighter local controls • 6 States submitted plans by the Sept. 2006 deadline • Alabama -- Tennessee • Iowa -- Texas • North Carolina -- West Virginia Which States Met the CAIR SIP Submittal Deadline?

  5. CAMR Implementation Timeline CAMR Program: Phase I begins Jan. 1, 2010 Petitioner’s Briefs Due Jan 12, 2007 Hg Monitoring and Reporting Required (‘09) State Plans Due (Nov 17, 2006) EPA Briefs Due May 4, 2007 08 09 10 07 CAMR Federal Plan proposed CAMR model rule changes proposed Dec 22, 2006 Record allocations under approved State Plans or Federal Plan December 2007

  6. How are States Planning to Meet the CAMR Requirements? • Major effort on the part of States with unique tailoring of programs • An April 2007 EPA survey indicates: - 3 states and DC have no coal-fired units - 47 States + 2 tribes have coal-fired units • 36 are planning to have trading: • 22 plan to use CAMR trading “as-is” • 9 plan to impose stricter local controls in addition to CAMR trading • 5 plan to trade but hold back part of emissions budget - 13 plan a response other than trading most with more stringent controls, often with control waivers for special circumstances

  7. Which States Met the CAMR State Plan Submittal Deadline? • 21 States submitted plans for CAMR by the November 17th deadline • Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Vermont, and West Virginia. • 3 are States without existing coal-fired units • 18 are States with existing coal-fired power plants • 10 use the trading program • 8 are direct control programs (mainly in the Northeast) • EPA continues to work with States as they develop their CAMR rules.

  8. Will the CAMR allowance market be affected by States that are not trading? • EPA expects viable trading program • EPA analyzed the anticipated level of participation in the trading program, and believes the allowance prices will be near previously forecasted prices • In all areas of the country, industry is installing controls and monitoring

  9. Forecasted Annual Allowance Price Estimates • Some factors that could move prices: • State actions • New Legislation • Relative fuel prices – natural gas vs. coal • Re-emergence of nuclear power over time • Unforeseen technological improvements, or shortages of labor/construction materials • Results of litigation • Action to address climate change • Lower or higher electric demand • Others… Source: CantorCO2e’s average MPI 1/1/2007-3/29/2007. The SO2 allowance is spot price for 2007.

  10. What should I be doing now? • Double-check applicability. CAIR and CAMR are similar, but not identical to either Acid Rain or the NOx Budget Trading Program. • Assign and register the designated representative for CAIR and CAMR. • Make sure monitor certifications are up-to-date for Part 75 monitoring under CAIR and CAMR. • CAIR NOx Ozone Season and Annual – start in 2008 • CAIR SO2 and CAMR – start in 2009 • Attend a CAIR/ CAMR workshop.

  11. References • General CAIR information epa.gov/cair • General CAMR information epa.gov/camr • Part 75 transition from NBP to CAIR epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/cair/index.html • Electronic Registration of DRs epa.gov/airmarkets/business/register.html • Training Announcements and Registration http://epa.gov/airmarkets/workshops/index.html

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