Gunnar Tunkrans

1. Long Term Planning Mid Term Budgeting Gunnar Tunkrans

2. International trends • Customer Focus • Environmental challenges • Transparency • Predictability – computability • Increased demands for quality and capacity • Intermodality • Advanced Technology - IT and Telecommunications • Alternative ways of financing • Increased involvement of private sector • Risk sharing • Performance based contracts - new forms of organization • Requirements for new / other qualifications

3. Challenges in the Road Sector • Road network with a low standard • Increasing traffic • Unauthorized vehicles • Unwanted effects on the environment • Many serious accidents • Insufficient financial resources • Erratic funding – difficult to predicted • Increased costs • Low improvement of the efficiency and limited introduction of new methods • Limited experience in parts of the sector • Limited competition

4. Planning – economic/physic The economical and the physical planning of infrastructure projects are intimately connected. • The physical planning can not be carried forward without funding for the project. • Financing of the object can hardly be laid down unless the design and technical solution is clear A Catch 22 - situation?

5. Economical Planning Time Term 10-12 years 5-10 years 3 years 1 year • Long Term Plan – plan where the projects in the first half of the plan are well analyzed while the projects in the other half may be less well analyzed. • Strategic Plan – deepening of the long-term plan, including the need for development/change within the agency/sector • Mid Term Budget – its operations in the coming year is fixed and the focus for the next two years • Budget – taken by Parliament for 1 year • Follow up – as well regularly during the year as at the end of the year.

6. Physical Planning and Design 7-12 4-7 2-4 • Initial Study – describes problems/needs and possible measures to meet the needs. • Feasibility – clear out what solution/corridor that should be chosen to meet the needs, including general environmental assessment and cost/benefit calculation • Detaild Design – shows the alignment including environmental examination. The land that is needed for the construction is made clear and established by law. Appeal can be made to the Government • Procurement –contractors are chosen after open competition Years before commencement of construction

7. Correct Standard?

8. Level of Standard (The never ending question) Standard to whom, when funding is limited? • Customer friendly standards Today's customers, right now • Standards from strategic perspective Tomorrow’s customers considering a sustainable development in all means • Standard from an economic perspective Minimizing cost now and/or in the long-range - LCC • Technical standard Sometimes sophisticated and expensive standards

9. Socio-economic analyses The following parameters are estimated when the socio-economic benefit (net present value) • Vehicle Operating Costs • Travel Time Costs • Traffic Safety Savings • Environmental Effects • Barrier Effects • Transport Quality • Regional Development • Investment Costs • Maintenance Costs

10. Effect Profile

11. Correct Products?

12. 4 Step Principle • Measures that have effect on the demand for transport and the choice of transport mean. The Swedish Transport Administration has developed what we call the 4-step principle. Shortly it means that; • Measures that give a more effective use of the existing road network. Improvement of the existing roads. • New investment or mayor reconstruction.

13. Choose a measure suitable to the problem/deficiency Speed camera to improve road safety Regulations for vulnerable road users and their protection

14. Congestion charge in StockholmPrimary objectives • Reduced congestion • Increased accessibility • Better environment

15. Major constructions only if other measures prove to be insufficient

16. Estimation of costs

17. Challenges in the Road Sector • Road network with a low standard • Increasing traffic • Unauthorized vehicles • Unwanted effects on the environment • Many serious accidents • Insufficient financial resources • Erratic funding – difficult to predicted • Increased costs • Low improvement of the efficiency and limited introduction of new methods • Limited experience in parts of the sector • Limited competition

18. Successive calculationThe Lichtenberg Method

19. The Lichtenberg Method • Involves an Analysis Group in a creative, multi‑disciplinary process • Qualitative and quantitative data about the future are captured and modelled. • The total "world" of the task is considered - the task itself, the client organisation, the business environment; human issues, technical issues, economic/financial issues.

20. Successive calculation - Result A triple estimate to define the uncertainty of a variable Typical Probability Distribution of the Result of a Time Schedule Analysis

21. Risk Management Things to take into consideration are; • Risk that the prerequisites have changed • Risk that the budget will be exceeded • Risk that there will be delays • Risk for lack of relevant resources The conditions have to be examined for each project. This, as well as the Lichtenberg Method, could be the topic for a separate seminar.

22. Thank you gunnar.tunkrans@sweroad.se;