Social Analysis in PSIA

1. Social Analysis in PSIA Renate Kirsch Social Development Department March, 2006

2. Outline • Why do we emphasize on social analysis as an integral part of the PSIA approach? • How do you conduct Social Analysis in PSIA? • Missing: How to integrate economic and social analysis PSIA process issues

3. Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) • PSIA is the analysis of intended and unintended consequences of actual or potential policy interventions on the well-being of different social groups, with a particular focus on the poor and vulnerable • PSIA focuses on • The distributional impacts on different stakeholders, • income and non–income dimensions • The positive and negative impacts of reform • Goals • Understand better the likely impacts of reforms on different groups (disaggregated along ethic, gender, age, spatial and livelihood lines) • Improving quality: Promoting pro-poor reforms • Facilitating the process: Building a broad constituency for change

4. Poverty and Social Impact Analysis A 10 Step approach? 1. Selecting the Reform 2. Identifying stakeholders 3. Understanding transmission channels 4. Assessing institutions 5. Gathering data and information 6. Analyzing impacts 7. Enhancing design and compensatory schemes 8. Assessing risks 9. Establishing monitoring and evaluation systems 10. Fostering policy debate and feedback into policy choice

5. PSIA: Main Elements • 4 Main Analytical Elements of a PSIA: Activities: • - Stakeholder Analysis - Policy dialogue process • Institutional Analysis - Monitoring during • Impact Analysis implementation • Risk Analysis • Social Analysis  brings different research focus,  generates different information,  generated via different set of tools and methods

6. Social Analysis in PSIA • Institutional: the “rules of the game” that people develop to govern group behavior and interaction in political, economic and social spheres of life • Political: the structure of power relations and often-entrenched interests of different stakeholders • Social: the social relationships that govern interaction at different organizational levels, including households, communities and social groups.  Important to signal that reforms • are manifested through institutional mechanisms • have important political economy dimensions • have differential impacts on different social groups

7. What is the value added of social analysis in PSIA? • Explains how social identity and social relations may affect reform outcomes and impacts (ethnic minorities in Laos) • Analysis of informal rules and behaviors helps to understand implementation issues and constraints (Tanzania Crop Board) • Focus on Analysis of interests and influence of different stakeholders helps to understand effects of political economy (Indonesia Imported Rice Tariff Pricing) • Helps to identify socio-political and institutional risks (Zambia land reform) • Emphasis on PSIA process and dialogue helps to identify bottlenecks and preconditions for ownership of reforms

8. How to conduct Social Analysis in PSIA? Toolkit for Institutional, Political and Social Analysis in PSIA (TIPS) • The Sourcebook describes good practice techniques for institutional, political and social analysis in PSIA • Based on lessons learned from five years of operational experience by World Bank, DFID, and other partners • The Sourcebook does not represent operational policy and does not prescribe minimum requirements for PSIA.

9. PSIA Transmission mechanisms • Prices • Employment • Access to goods and services • Assets • Transfers and taxes • Authority: • covers changes in power, structures and processes. • Reforms often result in changes in decision making and in new formulations of rights, obligations, incentives and sanctions that in turn will influence the behavior of government actors and citizens. .

10. A framework for Social Analysis

11. 1.1. Understanding country context • Questions: What is the significance of: • Historical context • Political-ideological climate • Political-institutional culture • Economic and social make-up • Tools: • Country Social Analysis • Drivers of Change • Power Analysis • Governance Questionnaire

12. Country Social Analysis (CSA) • CSA is an upstream, political economy analysis that seeks to inform policy dialogue and to improve the effectiveness and sustainability of development interventions • provide recommendations for the removal of barriers to equal opportunities for participating in development, accessing public institutions and holding them accountable, • The CSA framework analyzes the interaction between two dimensions: • Social diversity, assets, and livelihoods • What is the existing distribution of and access to assets and services across different social groups? What is the impact of that distribution in the livelihoods and coping strategies of the poor? • Power, institutions, and governance • What are the institutions that mediate access of the poor to assets and services? How do these institutions impact policy making and resource reallocation ?

13. Country Social Analysis: Guinea Bissau • Institutional context of the post-conflict period: analysis of political economy factors that contribute to understand its current state of institutional fragility and political and macroeconomic instability • Macroeconomic and fiscal policies for promoting sociopolitical stability and growth: the analysis reviews recent economic performance, and explores policy options for preserving sociopolitical stability • Agriculture sector and poverty reduction: impact of transactions costs on income generation and poverty reduction in the cashew sector. Attention to the need to diversify agricultural output • Education and health: Impact of cost recovery and functioning of the service delivery system. • Poverty analysis: an in-depth analysis of the socioeconomic profile, determinants of poverty and livelihoods of the poor using the 2002 ILAP and the 2005 QS and rapid appraisal data

14. CSA: Guinea Bissau Recommendations • Poverty analysis: Develop a coherent and reliable poverty database over time • Institutional: Enhance political stability in order to mitigate risks of conflict as experienced in the past. Address: • security issues (improving living conditions in military barracksdownsizing the armed forces, reforming the pension system, and balancing the ethnic composition of the security sector). • Land: implement the new Land Law in order to provide a legal and regulatory framework. Update the cadastre (to facilitate thee implementation of a land reform) • Macro-Fiscal policies: pursue essential expenditure programs in order to preserve social and political stability • Short-term: paying salaries, delivering social services, improving living conditions in military barracks, rehabilitating basic utility services); • Medium term: reducing the wage bill in non-productive segments of the public administration in the context of a PSR program • Agricultural development and poverty alleviation: • Increase employment generation and value added: cashew processing • Increasing food security and diversifying the growth base: (fruit exports and rice production for internal consumption)

15. 1.2. Understanding policy reform context 1.2.1. Macro-level stakeholder analysis • Questions: Who are the stakeholders? What is their position with respect to policy change? What motivates them? • Tools: Policy interest matrix Political mapping 1.2.1. Macro-level institutional analysis • Questions: What are the institutional rules and relationships that influence policy reform? • Tools: Network analysis Transaction cost analysis

16. Political mapping: Import tariff removal on agricultural staple

17. Network Analysis: How GOG agencies are linked by their expressed priorities with respect to the Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy

18. 2. Understanding the policy implementation process • Analysis of the process of implementation allows us to explore how, why and under what conditions a policy intervention might work, or fail • Objective: a greater understanding of the contextual factors, mechanisms and processes underlying a policy’s success or failure. • Stakeholders:focuses on interests and the relative importance and influence of different interests groups and actors and the role each might play in the implementation process • Institutions: as a sets of rules that govern individual and collective behavior. Assesses whether institutions mediate and distort the anticipated poverty and social impact of policy reform • Institutions may be formal ( legal systems, property rights, enforcement mechanisms); or informal, (cultural practices and social norms) • Institutions operate and influence behavior in different domains of daily life: • the state domain (governing justice, political processes and service delivery), • the market domain (governing credit, labor and goods) and • the societal domain (governing community and family behavior).

19. 2. Understanding the policy implementation process • 2.1. Meso-level Stakeholder Analysis • Objective: To test assumptions about the interests of social actors. • Tools: Stakeholder analysis matrices • Micro-political mapping • Force field analysis • 2.2. Meso-level Institutional analysis • Objective: To test assumptions about the social rules governing the implementation of policy • Tools: Organizational (static and process) mapping

20. Stakeholders Analysis

21. Legend

22. Figure 4.1. Analytical Sequencing in Organizational Mapping Static Mapping Process Tracing Process Mapping Identify and place actors in a spatial map Examples: Chad cotton Trace cause-effect flows in key processes between actors Examples: Chittagong port Map out the dynamics and relations between actors Examples: Chad cotton Analytical sequencing in Organizational mapping

23. Cotton flow decrease inquality? “White as snow” … but always downgraded! Accord d’Ouverture Producers He “travels with the cotton” … and with bribes, in case cotton has been downgraded Interface CT resp. for quality of cotton after signing of Accord… in theory Marche Autogere Convoyer Transporters CotonChad Ginnery Commission de Classement Biased balance of power Technical Transformation and Production Duala 97% first class cotton -Japan -France -Europe

24. 3. Understanding the impacts of policy reform • Objective: examining the likely or actual impact of policy reform  at the meso and micro levels • Social models are applied • evaluating winners and losers • understanding how different social groups act in the face of the events and how institutions impact on their lives, • Tools: Analytical frameworks that provide a “theory of change” and employ concepts of opportunity structure, shocks, assets, entitlements, capabilities • Methods and data • Objective: Employing a common set of questions on impacts, linked to the transmission channels • Tools: A range of methods that generate both qualitative and quantitative data

25. Impact analysis: Methods and data

26. 4. Policy Analysis: Assessing uncertainties and risks to policy reform • Objective: Assessing how confident we are that the predicted impacts will occur? • Risk assessment: utilizing PSIA data and analysis to identify and map the risks to policy reform. • Institutional risks, political economy, exogenous, and country risks • Scenario analysis help us choose the policy option that is most likely to result in our desired outcome • (4 steps: Identify the counterfactual, Identify scenarios for policy reform, Analyze the impact of each scenario against the counterfactual, Compare and choose the preferred scenario)

27. Challenges • Improving methodological rigor • Use of standardized tools and field manuals to ensure consistency and replicability • Make assumptions transparent • Aligning economic and social analytic tools • Integrate methods from the beginning and iteratively • Use different techniques for triangulation • Strengthen in-country capacity for PSIA • Enhance policymakers ability to review results and consider policy alternatives • Results have to be transparent, credible and easy to understand and communicate • Analysis will have to be disclosed for it to be useful for policy dialogue • Provide govt. and key stakeholders evidence to consider to inform policy debate and enhance ownership

28. Importance of process • The policy process is critical for analysis to have meaningful impact on policy • Distinction between the process of undertaking PSIA from the policy process • The latter is nested in country strategies and policy dialogue such as PRSPs • e.g., the World Bank has a separate GPN on participation

30. What determines the choice of analytical focus and methods? • the nature of impacts (direct and indirect) • the channel through which impacts are transmitted • Prices • Employment • Access to goods and services • Assets • Transfers and taxes • Institutional rules or Authority • data, resources, client capacity and time available

31. Analytical focus vs type of data and analysis Qualitative analysis Quantitative analysis Social Economic

32. Producers Interface Gestionnaire Interface DG Production CotonChad Transporters International Bid International Market Place Areas Ginneries Duala CotonChad Input flows (from projections to delivery) debt trap Inputs on credit, full cost deducted from final payment • Unclear idea about input needs • Prices unknown Unable to provide instructions Fixed demand not accounting for changing needs Distribution of inputs & collection of cotton Separate bids cause untimely- uncoordinated distribution

34. PSIA in the PRS-Cycle Ex ante PSIA PSIA monitoring Diagnostic Strategy design Monitoring PSIA during implementation Implementation of reforms