1 / 9

Kenya 2016/17 Drought Analysis

Kenya 2016/17 Drought Analysis. Kenya Meteorological Department Joyce Kimutai. Past droughts events in Kenya. In 2010/11 , 3.7 million were affected Counties most impacted : Turkana,Mandera , Marsabit , Garissa , Wajir , Isiolo , and Tana River

mwitt
Download Presentation

Kenya 2016/17 Drought Analysis

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Kenya 2016/17 Drought Analysis Kenya Meteorological Department Joyce Kimutai March 2017

  2. Past droughts events in Kenya March 2017

  3. In 2010/11, 3.7 million were affected • Counties most impacted : Turkana,Mandera, Marsabit, Garissa, Wajir, Isiolo, and Tana River • In 2016/17 over 3 million by March 16th 2017 • The 12 counties in an alarm stage : Marsabit, Garissa, Mandera, Isiolo, Kwale, Turkana, West Pokot, Samburu, Tana River, Kilifi, Wajir and Lamu. Some expected to slide into the emergency phase in the coming weeks. • 11 counties at the alert stage: Baringo, Embu (Mbeere), Kajiado, Kitui, Meru (North), TharakaNithi, Laikipia, Makueni, Narok, Nyeri (Kieni) and TaitaTaveta. March 2017

  4. MAM 2011 OND 2010 MAM 2010 MAM 2016 OND 2016 ? March 2017

  5. Study area March 2017

  6. Methodology • Scientists from Kenya Met Department, World Weather Attribution and University of Nairobi collaborated on this analysis • Multiple methods of attribution science were used to look at the possible roles of climate change and La Nina in the drought. March 2017

  7. Results • The areas with the lowest rainfall in this drought are in the northwest and southeast parts of the country. • Trends indicate that the temperatures involved in this drought are hotter than they would have been without the influence of climate change. • There is no significant shift in rainfall amounts due to climate change, but the team cannot exclude small changes in the risk of poor rains • The depressed October-December rainfall was largely influenced by La Nina March 2017

  8. Recommendations • Temperature increase due to climate change can lead to a stress on water supply and livestock. In order to reduce future impacts of climate change this remains a priority in disaster management and agriculture planning. • The La Nina influence demonstrates the importance of managing climate variability-the regular year-to-year shifts in climate. • There is a high potential for using seasonal forecasts to trigger preventative actions, before the onset of a meteorological event, to reduce impacts. March 2017

  9. MARCH-APRIL-MAY 2017 RAINFALL OUTLOOK March 2017

More Related