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Climate Change and Projection for Asia

Climate Change and Projection for Asia. Data and Uncertainty. Modeling the climate processes AND Model Outputs for Climate Change Analysis.

myra-ellison
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Climate Change and Projection for Asia

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  1. Climate Change and Projection for Asia Data and Uncertainty\

  2. Modeling the climate processesANDModel Outputs for Climate Change Analysis Climate model is reduced complexity numerical system, which simulates one possible time evolution in which the major features have a response to primary forcing similar to the real world.

  3. SNU RCM Downscaled Climate Change for East Asia Region

  4. SNU RCM Downscaled Climate Change for East Asia Region

  5. Dispersion and Inconsistency in downscaling Seasonal Cycles by RMIP models

  6. Dispersion and Inconsistency in climate projections

  7. Dispersion and Inconsistency in climate projection RMIP downscaled Precipitation changes Center China South China ΔP(mm/day) ΔP(mm/day)

  8. Sources of Uncertainty

  9. Interannual variability for future climate by multi-RCMs Asia Land Ocean Annual T Trends for 2040-2070 (c/10yr)

  10. Ensembles in RMIP

  11. Ensembles in RMIP

  12. Ensembles in RMIP

  13. Ensembles in RMIP

  14. Ensembles in RMIP • Ensemble averages work well for mean climate; • Explorer the best methods for evaluating changes and extremes; • Use ensemble spread to inform uncertainty;

  15. Model outputs and Observation • For surface climate: • Daily average MSLP, maximal/minimal temperature, surface wind speed (optional) • 3-hourly: 2m temperature, RH, convective precipitation, large scale precipitation, evaporation, 10m wind (U,V) (optional, depending on individual model) • For upper level atmosphere • Daily average: U, V, T, H at 200, 500, 850 hPa • Observation • CRU surface temperature, OISST SST • APHRODITE and GPCP Precipitation

  16. RMIP data • http://rmip.nju.edu.cn, available soon, • Contact wsy@nju.edu.cn

  17. Thank you!

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