Climate Change and Environmental Security in Southeast Asia

1. Climate Change and Environmental Security in Southeast Asia By Sofiah Jamil Non-Traditional Security Training Course forIndonesian Police Lecturers, Doctors and NGO Leaders S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Seminar Room 1 22nd -24th August 2007 Photo Source: Global Fire Monitoring Center

2. Summary • What is environmental security (ES) and climate change (CC)? • What is the link between ES and CC? • What are the cause and effects of CC in Southeast Asia? • What has been done to secure SEA’s environmental security? • What still needs to be done?

3. Natural Resources Society Economy

4. What is Environmental Security? • the dynamics and interconnections among the natural resource base, the social fabric of the state, and the economic engine for local and regional stability • Various environmental problems BUT common underlying causes • Industrialisation  Overconsumption of resources by world’s richer nations & communities • Demographic pressures in poorer states • Competition/abuse of resources  unequal access to resources  conflict/violence  instability • depletion and pollution of fresh water supplies, depletion of fisheries, degradation and disappearance of biodiversity, degradation and loss of agriculture lands, air pollution, food and health safety, stratospheric ozone depletion, climate change/global warming.

5. What is Climate Change? • Changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of climate • Not new but the effects of it more apparent in recent decades • Industrialisation  Carbon emissions  Global Warming and Extreme Weather Conditions

7. Climate-related disasters in ASEAN states Source: www.reliefweb.int

9. Climate Change Environmental Insecurity

10. “Global Warming is now a Weapon of Mass Destruction” - Sir John Haughton, Former Chief Executive, UK Meteorological Office Co-Chair of Scientific Assessment Group of IPCC . Quoted in The Guardian, 28 July 2003 “Climate Change acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions in the world” - National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, The NCA Corporation, 2007 “The Security Council is the forum to discuss issues that threaten the peace and security of the international community. What makes wars start? Fights over water. Changing patterns of rainfall. Fights over food production, landuse.. There are few greater potential threats to our economies too ... but also to peace and security itself” - British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett, during UNSC Climate Change debate, 2007

11. Kyoto Protocol (1997) • entered into force on 16 February 2005. • committing to individual, legally-binding targets to limit or reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Only Parties to the Convention that have also become Parties to the Protocol • BUT has its limitations • Major player US has not ratified it • Some states find it difficult to keep to their quotas • Does not take into account emerging developing economies – eg. India, China • Does not take into account carbon emissions from agricultural sources (which as we will see in accounting for an increasing substantial part)

12. Peatlands…  Before degradation After degradation

13. Role of Peatlands in Climate Change • Draining and burning of peatlands • Nature of desiccated peat • Location of peatlands in the world • Southeast Asia’s carbon emissions mostly from forestry sector • BUT not included under Kyoto Protocol • Further implications when Energy sector expands as part of economic growth and development

15. Effects of Fires Health problems Impeding productivity Haze Damage to land Disrupt livelihood Disruption of modes of transport Poor Visibility Slump in Tourism Crippling economic growth Higher likelihood of accidents Increased mortality rates   

16. Climate Change Increase Greenhouse effect Less carbon sinks Increased “natural” disasters Increased Freaky weather Co2 Emissions Increased lightning Warmer and dryer environments Increase spread of diseases Poverty & Reduced capacity to deal with crises Fires

17. Fires Climate Change Haze Crises: 1997- 1998 and late 2006

18. Minimizing and adapting to effects of Climate Change • Vientiane Action Programme (VAP) for (2004- 2010). • Working groups on :- • multilateral environmental agreements, • nature conservation and biodiversity, • coastal and marine environment, • environmentally sustainable cities • water resources management. • consolidating best local practices • tapping on foreign resources

19. ASEAN Peatland Management Initiative (2003) • ASEAN Peatland Management Strategy (APMS) (2005 – 2020) • Multi- stakeholder and multi-agency involvement • including plantations and companies and local farmers • Sustainable development measures • Discuss the development of corresponding National Action Plans (NAPs) • enhance cooperation and coordination with partners and supporters

20. Jambi Master Plan • More proactive action • Singapore to deal directly with Muaro Jambi regency • enhancing capacity in preventing and mitigating fires. • Assistance in sourcing out for financial and technical resources, including matching agencies to project • legislation and enforcement • early warning and monitoring • regional and international collaboration . • If successful, will be used as a model for other fire-prone areas. • Need to be realistic

21. Challenges for ASEAN • Strengthening capacity to address issues • Balancing rising global demand for alternative energy sources • Malaysia and Indonesia prime sources for biofuel • Biofuel production precipitating climate change? • Strengthen international support for sustainable development • Securitizing the demand for biofuels? • Regional problems with diversifying energy sources

22. “Global warming is a "modern" problem -- complicated, involving the entire world, tangled up with difficult issues such as poverty, economic development, and population growth. Dealing with it will not be easy. Ignoring it will be worse.” - UNFCCC