Environmental Services for the 21 st Century Supporting Programs Summary and Future Directions

1. Observational Issues for Weather & Climate ServicesDr. Marie ColtonDirectorOffice of Research and Applications12 Nov 02 Environmental Services for the 21st CenturySupporting ProgramsSummaryand Future Directions

2. Sustaining capabilities & servicesEl Niño Anomalies: 1997 - 1998 Topex/Poseidon POES

3. Fundamental components of operational, environmental services for 21st Century Requirements Robust Observations Attributes of Environmental Services User-Inspired R&D Performance Measures

4. Synthesizing User RequirementsEX: Sea Surface Temperature Requirements • GODAE “GODAE requiresglobal high resolution sea surface temperature in near real-time for assimilation into ocean models. Remote sensing missions planned in the near future broadly meet GODAE needs in term of sampling and accuracy, though they are marginal for some climate applications and for global high resolution problems” • OceanOBS99 “For remote sensing, continuity of the higher accuracy ATSR-class measurements needs to be addressed and further research is needed on the assimilation and use of geostationary data for improved temporal resolution and microwave measurements for better spatial coverage. “ • IGOS Ocean Theme “Continuation of the geostationary, and low-earth-orbit meteorological satellites that produce merged sea-surface temperature data products. A second issue is to consider how to transform ATSR-class instruments to operational systems.”

5. Ocean Observer User Requirements Document, Feb, 2000(updating NPOESS IORD-II) Justification: Sea Surface Temperature (SST) (DOC/DoD): (USAF) The requirements for the stated thresholds are documented in AWS Report. (USN) Navy Requirements Review concluded sea surface temperature details (i.e., frontal analysis) can be taken into proper consideration only by emerging high-resolution models using a polar-orbiting weather satellite. Horizontal resolutions of 4 km (global) and 1 km (regional) and a measurement accuracy of 0.5o C specify the resolution and accuracy needed. In addition, these resolution and accuracy requirements are needed to bound detection and accuracy parameters for emerging shallow water antisubmarine warfare systems. (DOC) A regional resolution of at least 3 km at nadir (global resolution) and 1 km (0.25 km Objective) (regional resolution) is required to support coastal management missions within DOC, as described by NOAA Requirements for Support from Polar Orbiting Satellites, NOAA, DOC, June 1990, and in NOAA-DOD-NASA Triagency Polar Requirements Summary, NOAA, 1993. In order to be able to discern thermal details in bays and estuaries for analyses of coastal dynamics, human health, ecosystem sustainability, and resource management, this high-resolution capability is key.

6. Accommodating Change MULTIPLATFORM SST POES IR has high spatial resolution GOES IR has high temporal resolution Microwave has all-weather capabilityBuoys, ships for in-situ observations Combine to obtain the optimal SST analysis

7. Quality MattersLong-Term Calibration/Validation and Inter-Sensor and In-Situ Comparisons

8. Technology InsertionContinuous, but Evolving Instruments

9. The Basic Framework drawn from meteorological analogue Real-time remotely sensed and in-situ data Assimilating numerical models Quality control of observational data sets and models Real-time dissemination of information products User feedback mechanisms Archival of observations and model output Highly educated workforce Diverse basic and applied research enterprise Support by a scientific and professional society But adapted for 2000+ …in an Internet world… Shortened development cycles Experimental, distributed platforms Innovation insertions …with immediate societal applications GIS Economic benefits Education and Community building …with long-term continuity for monitoring and stewardship commitments …with performance measures applied to R&D, technology, operations, and user segments …and commercial opportunity System DesignAttributes of operational, environmental services for a New Century

10. How well are we doing?Value-oriented Performance Indicators for User-Inspired Science Small, Flexible, Diverse Science MASTER: BE SUSTAINABLE CREATE: BE NEW Radically new ideas A new way to ask or thinkGlobal leadership Unusual projects Incrementally new ideas Develop teachable pointsCommunity leadership Great Contributors Evolutionary INTERNAL Revolutionary EXTERNAL IMPROVE: BE BETTER PRODUCE: BE FIRST Incrementally new products Standardized applicationsReliable facilitiesGood Technical Management Projects on track Radically new products Identify applicationsRapid Deployment Projects have high yieldStrategic Partnerships Large, Controlled, Convergent Science Excerpted from “Recognizing the Competing Values of R&D Organizations,”G. Jordan, Sandia National Laboratories

11. Ongoing ProgramsSolving the“simultaneous data equations” for Ocean, Weather, and Climate applications Ocean Remote Sensing Program Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Participation in Climate Change Research Initiatives

12. For Whom are we working? Multiple users Standalone and Merged Products for Ocean Weather and Climate SST Anomalies- data fusion Hot Spots: Potential Coral Bleaching TOPEX Sea Level Sea WIFS Ocean Color QuikSCAT Winds

13. FY03 Sources of Income and Planned Budget for Ocean Remote Sensing Line

14. Cutting the Pie to serve the many

15. Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation The MISSION of the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation is to accelerate the quantitative use of satellite data in weather and climate prediction models for operational and research purposes SPONSORS:NOAA, NASA , NPOESS IPO PARTNERS:NOAA (NCEP, NESDIS, OAR), NASA GSFC/DAO, Navy N096/ONR, Air Force XOW, NCAR • GOALS of the JCSDA • Accelerate the use of data from the advanced satellite sensors • Advance data assimilation technology • Standardize the data assimilation infrastructure for nationwide uses • Accelerate the transition of the advanced data assimilation scheme into the research and operational forecast models PROGRAMMATIC APPROACHDirected Internal Research and Infrastructure External Research, Education, Outreach FUNDING PROFILE FIVE YEAR SCIENTIFIC PRIORITIES • Improve radiative transfer models • Prepare for advanced instruments • Advance techniques for assimilating cloud and precipitation information • Improve emissivity models and surface products • Improve use of satellite data in ocean data assimilation for weather and climate forecast MAJOR FY02 ACCOMPLISHMENTS • Inclusion of cloud liquid water data • Inclusion of GOES-10 IR radiances • Inclusion of TRMM microwave imager precipitation estimates into NCEP operational system • Inclusion of Quikscat data into NCEP operational system: • 3-8% improvement in 10m winds vs mid-latitude deep ocean buoys at 27 to 96h • 7-17% improvements for MSCP

16. NOAA Climate Observations & Services OAR Climate Research Long-Term Climate Modeling Monitoring of Atm Composition Ocean Obs Climate Obs & Services Sustained Obs Assessments/ Predictions Outreach Trans. to Operations NWS Climate Prediction Regional/Local Forecasting In Situ Obs NESDIS Space-Based Climate Observations Data Records Climate Monitoring & Assessment Network Performance Monitoring Reference Network

17. How do we get there?A Step-wise Approach • Near term (0-12 mo): • Climate Obs & Svs Program planning • NRC Study on Climate Data Records from Operational Sats • NIST/NASA/NPOESS satellite calibration for measuring global climate change • Satellite benchmark (CLIMSAT) requirements workshop • Longer term (12-36 mo): Expand Joint Center activities to include climate applications (eg., ocean data assimilation) • Intermediate term (6-18mo): Initiate production of high priority CDRs from historical satellite record

18. Where do we want to go?GenerateClimate Data Records (CDRs): The Basis for all Climate Applications • A CDR is a time series that accounts for sources of error and noise, producing a a stable, high-quality data record. Creation of CDRs requires in-depth attention to: • Calibration, inter-calibration and characterization of satellite instruments • Development of processing algorithms • Detection and elimination of artifacts in the data set • Generation of stable climatic time series • Validation of data products • Analysis of data • Reprocessing as needed • Comment: Ozone is the only CDR that comes close to satisfying these requirements, but provides example of necessary approach

19. How do we get there?Intermediate term (6-18 mo)Initiate production of high priority CDRs from historical and current satellite record • The AVHRR data record (1981 – present) has great potential as a source of CDRs • Sea Surface Temperature • Cloud cover and cloud properties • TOA Radiation budget • Aerosol optical depth • Land surface variables (Vegetation and snowcover) • Computational resources are now easily affordable. AVHRR 1b data are available from the Satellite Active Archive • Task is challenging, but low technical risk • Accurate calibration and orbital corrections required • Robust climate-quality algorithms must be developed • Incorporate latest science • Improved clear-sky detection will result in improved and consistent datasets of SST, aerosols and land variables

20. GOES Sea Surface Temperature Reprocessing How do we get there?Intermediate term (6-18 mo)Initiate production of high priority CDRs from historical and current satellite record BENEFITS • A uniquely powerful dataset for studying both diurnal warming of the ocean surface and the evolution of mesoscale features such as fronts and eddies • Improved retrieval quality • Derived from recharacterized and recalibrated archive of GOES radiance data being produced by NCDC • Modeling of the diurnal thermocline • End result will be a consistent climate-quality SST dataset extending back to 1994, which will be made available to the various user communities via the GOES Active Archive being set up by NCDC • Other derived products can be generated • Cloud cover and cloud properties • TOA Radiation budget • Aerosol optical Depth • Surface Winds

21. How do we get there?Intermediate term (6-18 mo)Other examples: high priority CDRs from historical and current microwave satellite record • The operational microwave instruments, MSU, SSMI/S and AMSU, will provide other climatologically important CDRs (essentially the “water component”) • Ocean parameters • Water vapor, Precipitation • Sea Ice • Atmosphere • Deep layer mean temperatures • Precipitation • Cloud liquid water • Surface emissivity • Low data volumes for microwave instruments make reprocessing easy and affordable • Microwave CDRs will be blended with data from future instruments, CMIS and ATMS

22. Summary and Conclusions • Climate and Ocean services are particular forms of emerging “environmental services” for 21st century that support multiple users and applications • Sea surface temperature was used as “tracer” for such services. Science, budget, and user priorities will determine which parameters are “operationalized” first. Must address multiplatform measurements, applications, validations, archive and distribution for each observing system • Operational weather and research satellites can provide the continuity and global coverage needed for monitoring climate variations • NESDIS is incorporating climate requirements into NOAA satellite programs using environmental service framework • Climate Reference Network is a very important in-situ component of the total observing system for climate • NOAA satellite, data and forecast center programs can provide for end-to-end climate monitoring in support of NOAA and national Climate Programs • Generation of CDR’s requires expertise in observing sensor as well as geophysics. Long-term expertise associated with the existing 25 yrs of satellite data is retiring • Re-analysis costs for high-priority parameters (SST) are reasonable given today’s computational capability and should be initiated as “CDR Pathfinders”.

23. BACKUP/Additional Information

24. Where are we Now?NESDIS Activities in Support of Generating Climate Data Sets From Satellites • NESDIS has long history of generating climatically useful data sets from its satellites - mainly as part of real-time operational processing • Snow cover - over 30 years • Outgoing Long Wave Radiation (OLR) - over 25 years • Sea surface temperature - over 20 years • Surface vegetation index - over 20 years • Ozone - over 15 years • NESDIS works with external community to generate satellite data sets • Archives all satellite observations and makes them available to external community • Participates in national/international climate projects generating climate data sets: WCRP’s ISCCP and GPCP, NOAA/NASA Pathfinder Program • Assists external investigator groups: Spencer/Christy-MSU atmospheric temperature; D.Robinson, snow cover

25. Problems to be Overcome in Constructing Long-Term Data Sets • NOAA’s current satellite instruments (except for SBUV ozone) were designed mainly for weather observations • Climate change signals are small (e.g., 0.2 C/decade) • Global averages have large variability in space • Sensors degrade in space • Orbital drift • Afternoon orbits prior to NOAA-16 • Satellite to satellite discontinuities • No two instruments exactly alike