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Lecture 15 – Psyco 350, B1 Fall, 2011

Lecture 15 – Psyco 350, B1 Fall, 2011. N. R. Brown. Outline. 1. Discrepant Partner Reports and the MSP The Discrepancy MSP Evidence: strategy differences & Estimation bias. Two Studies UA undergrads -- Questionnaire Study USA random sample -- Web-based Survey Telephone Web.

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Lecture 15 – Psyco 350, B1 Fall, 2011

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  1. Lecture 15 – Psyco 350, B1Fall, 2011 N. R. Brown

  2. Outline 1. Discrepant Partner Reports and the MSP • The Discrepancy • MSP • Evidence: strategy differences & Estimation bias. • Two Studies • UA undergrads -- Questionnaire Study • USA random sample -- Web-based Survey • Telephone • Web Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 2

  3. Time for another Memory Demo Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 3

  4. Accurate (?) Frequency Judgments Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 4

  5. Memory for “How Many” Modal explicit memory test: • Memory for “what” Other explicit memory test focus on event properties: • when – event age/date/recency, list position • where – physical location • physical properties – appearance/sound/smell • how often/how many – frequency Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 5

  6. Memory for “How Many” Theoretical Issues: • Understand the impact of repetition on memory. • Why is frequency performance often very good? • How is frequency information represented, updated, & used? • How and when is frequency information used to inform probability judgments and prediction? Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 6

  7. Memory for “How Many” Practical Issue: • Self-reported “behavioral frequency” questions common in surveys & scales. • business, government, Social Sciences, medicine (epidemiology) • When are estimates accurate/inaccurate? • When/why are they inaccurate/biased? • Is there anyway to improve accuracy? Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 7

  8. A Commonly Asked Frequency Question How many sexual partners have you had in your lifetime? Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 8

  9. Importance • Epidemiology • Sociology • Psychology • Methodology ♂SPs = ♀SPs SP = sex partner Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 9

  10. ♂SP Mean = ♀SP Means F M F M F M F M F M Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 10

  11. ♂SP Mean = ♀SP Means F M F M F M F M F M (♀SP = 2) = (♂SPs = 2) Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 11

  12. ♂SP Mean = ♀SP Means F M F M F M F M F M Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 12

  13. ♂SP Mean = ♀SP Means F M F M F M F M F M (♀SP = 2) = (♂SPs = 2) Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 13

  14. The Discrepancy ♂s report far more opposite-sex SPs than ♀s Magnitude: • 2 X – 4X Generality: • US, UK, France, Canada, Norway, New Zealand Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 14

  15. SP Discrepancy as Case Study: Explanations Sampling Response Social Cognitive Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 15

  16. Sampling Account (Brewer, et al 2000) • Prostitutes under-sampled • Support: • adjustment = estimate[# CSW]* estimate [# partners/CSW] • adjustment reduces discrepancy • Problems • implication: For ♂s,≈75% SP are CSWs • Wiederman (1997) – removing “Johns” reduces discrepancy slightly, but does not eliminate it. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 16

  17. Social Account: Self-Presentation Bad-faith Explanations • Respondents are "telling themselves and others enormous lies“ -- Lewontin • "Intentional misreports are the main source of the discrepancies.” -- Smith Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 17

  18. Social Account: Self-Presentation Bad-faith Explanations Assumed to Reflect a socially prescribed Directional Biases The-Macho-and-the-Maiden Hypothesis: • ♂ exaggerate • ♀ minimize Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 18

  19. The Social Account: Support Intuition Robust attitude differences (Oliver & Hyde, 1993) Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 19

  20. The Stakes Bad-Faith Partner Estimates Undermine credibility of self-report placing "all scientific sociology...in deep trouble” -- Lewontin Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 20

  21. A Problem for the Social Account Problem: • Non-discrepant response patterns are the norm -- duration, frequency, activities, # past-year SPs • Example: Laumann et al. (1994) Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 21

  22. A Cognitive AccountThe Multiple Strategies Perspective Links the discrepancy to between-sex differences in strategy use. Identifies common strategies w/ explicable bias • Enumeration underestimation • “Rough Approximation”  overestimation Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 22

  23. Multiple Strategy Perspective • multiple strategies • multiple representations • encoding  content • content  strategy • strategy  performance References: • Blair & Burton, 1987; Brown, 1995, 1997, 2002, in press; Burton & Blair, 1991; Conrad et al, 1998, 2003; Menon, 1993. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 23

  24. encoding factors contents strategy effort bias accuracy Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 24

  25. Multiple Strategy Perspective • Encoding factors determine task-relevant contents of memory. • Contents of memory restrict strategy selection. • Strategy selection and response bias often related. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 25

  26. An Empirically Derived Taxonomy of Frequency Estimation Strategies Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 26

  27. Relating Encoding, content, strategy & Performance Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 27

  28. Evidence for MPS: Brown (1995) Two Experiments: • common materials • common estimation task • different process-based based measures • Experiment 1 – concurrent verbal protocols • Experiment 2 – RT Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 28

  29. Materials & Task Study Phase: 260 word pairs visual presentation: 6 s / pair Word Pairs: category label – category instance CITY – Boston Presentation Frequency of category labels: 2, 4, 8, 12, 16 Test Phase: 36 category labels “How many times did the word CITY appear on the study list”? Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 29

  30. Two Types of Study Lists: Different Context & Same Context Different Context Lists TargetContext city Paris sport football color red . . . . color green city Cleveland metal iron . . . . woman Mary city Boston . . . . Same Context Lists TargetContext city Boston sport football color red . . . . color red city Boston metal iron . . . . woman Mary city Boston . . . . Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 30

  31. Results: Process Measures • Different Context: enumeration very common • Same Context: unjustified very common – • fluency/availability-based estimates Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 31

  32. Results: Protocol Results Interpretation: • People enumerate when possible because it provides concrete credible basis for an estimate • Readily-retrieval instances are a precondition for enumeration. Alternative Interpretation: • People generally do not enumerate • In protocol study: enumeration common because task demands imply that participants SAY something relevant to justify their response. • possible in different context condition • not possible in same-context condition Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 32

  33. Results: Process Measures Different Context: • RTs  frequency • evidence for silent enumeration Same Context: • RT slope much shallower. • no enumeration Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 33

  34. Results: Accuracy Measures Measures: • Mean Signed Error = (estimatei – actuali)/N • Mean Absolute Error = |signed errori|/N Findings: • Performance good regardless of context type • Absolute error: Different < Same • Signed Error (bias): Different < 0 < Same Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 34

  35. Different Context  underestimation Same Context  overestimation RT Study Protocol Study Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 35

  36. Experimental Summary Multiple strategies Strategy selection restricted by memory contents Bias & Strategy related: • enumeration underestimation • rough aprox overestimation Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 36

  37. Lifetime Partner Discrepancy from the MSP Multiple strategies: • Enumeration • Rough Approximation • Others(?) Strategy & magnitude related. • enumeration < rough aprox Strategy selection related to sex • Enumeration: ♀ > ♂ • Rough Aprox: ♂ > ♀ Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 37

  38. MSP Predictions – Past Year Estimates • Comparable past-year reports • Multiple strategies used • Strategy & magnitude related • Strategy & sex of respondent unrelated Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 38

  39. A Questionnaire Study: Brown & Sinclair (1999) Method: • Demographics • SP reports: • lifetime estimate & written strategy report • past-year estimate & written strategy report • Attitude measures Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 39

  40. A Questionnaire Study: Brown & Sinclair (1999) Participants: University Students: AB, PA, NJ 1036 ♀ 687 ♂ Age: M = 20.7 MD = 19 Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 40

  41. Distribution of SP Estimates -- AlbertaQ Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 41

  42. Sexual Active Subset -- AlbertaQ • Most active 10%; SP  8 • Heterosexual • 90 Females Age: md = 22 SPs: m = 13.61 • 85 Males Age: md = 23 SPs: m = 19.91 Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 42

  43. SP Est– Sexaul Active Subset -- AlbertaQ Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 43

  44. Protocol Content – AlbertaQ Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 44

  45. Sample Protocols -- AlbertaQ Enumeration (Retrieve & Count) "By retracing chronologically the partners I've had. Beginning with the first, ending with the present." -- M, 20 "I recalled and counted." -- F, 18 "Counted all the names I remembered." -- F, 11 "I can recall who they were and can count them." -- F, 15 Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 45

  46. Sample Protocols -- AlbertaQ Rough Approximation • “Rough guess, give or take 1 or 2 partners." -- M, 16 • "Rough estimate plus-or-minus error 5" -- M, 20 • "I used to keep count. # has slowed down is likely about there" -- M, "30 (or so)“ • "It is a guess based on the amount of partners I have had at the minimum.“ -- M, 50 Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 46

  47. Sample Protocols -- AlbertaQ Retrieved Tally "Keep track of them as they occurred." -- M, 21 "I know the number without thinking as it has been previously discussed among friends“-- M, 10 "I didn't estimate. I've kept count."-- F, 11 "I kept track in my diary and I know that my boyfriend is #27." -- F, 27 Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 47

  48. Sample Protocols -- AlbertaQ Rate • "Avg of 5/year from 16-21, then remained monogamous." -- M, 25 • "The average length of relationship since the time I became sexually active." -- M, 20 Ambiguous/Unclear • "Memory." -- M, 22“ • “I remember them."-- M, 10 Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 48

  49. Strategy Usage – Sexual Active – AlbertaQ EN = ENumeration TA = TAlly AP= rough APproximation AM = AMbiguous Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 49

  50. MD Lifetime SPs X Strategy Sexual Active AlbertaQ EN = ENumeration TA = TAlly AM = AMbiguous AP= rough APproximation Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 50

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