Realities and a few myths regarding dropping out in South African schools Martin Gustafsson

1. Realities and a few myths regarding dropping out in South African schools Martin Gustafsson March 2012

2. Topics to be covered • What is dropping out and why is it a policy challenge? • How many learners drop out, why and when? • South Africa’s figures in an international context • Policy solutions

3. > What is dropping out and why is it a policy challenge? • Learners leave school before ‘they should’. The ‘should’ part is debatable, not necessarily Grade 12. • Where the problem is very clear-cut: Children leaving school in or before the year in which they turn 15. (It is not illegal to be out of school if you turned 15 the previous year.) • Where we should probably pay more attention: Learners leaving school without having successfully completed Grade 9. (But does having Grade 9 mean very much currently???)

4. > What is dropping out and why is it a policy challenge? • One is not necessarily dealing with systemic failure if learners leave for the following reasons: • Enrolment in an FET college • Migration out of the geographical area • Death

5. > How many learners drop out, why and when? • The debate should be informed by accurate statistics. Unfortunately, clearly inaccurate statistics abound: • In e.g. 2009 EFA Global Monitoring Report of UNESCO, Grade 1 drop-out rate for SA said to be 10%. The problem affects many countries and relates to abuse of UNESCO’s ‘cohort reconstruction model’. • SAHRC and others have referred to Grades 1 to 3 dropout rates of over 25%. This part of impetus behind 2008 Ministerial report on learner retention. Problem here was that enrolment totals were compared with no consideration of grade repeaters (of which there are many in Grade 1).

6. > How many learners drop out, why and when? • So how does one avoid the confusion? One way is to use household survey data that used the right questions. Very rare, e.g. NIDS 2008. Grade-specific dropout rates Source: NIDS 2008 (Smallness of sample means overall trend, not single-number bumps, are key.)

7. > How many learners drop out, why and when? • Another approach is to go a simpler route and just look at enrolment by age graphs… There just cannot be e.g. 25% dropout rate here. South Africa Source: GHS 2010 Most of this gap is accounted for by pre-primary. Gauteng

8. > How many learners drop out, why and when? • It is also useful to look at ‘attainment curves’… Gr 12 GHS 2010 Gr 9

9. > How many learners drop out, why and when? • The largest reasons for dropping out before Gr 12 (nationally, NIDS 2008): • Lack of money (±20%) • Pregnancy (±20%, ±40% of females) • Look for a job (±20%) • Job situation for those with and without Gr 12 probably less dissimilar than is often believed: Ages 15 to 35 not studying

10. > South Africa’s figures in an international context • In a nutshell… • Enrolment ratios below end of secondary (i.e. Gr 12) are above average. South African concerns with pre-Grade 12 dropping out have to be understood in the context of no pre-Grade 12 school qualification (and perhaps an ‘all-or-nothing’ approach to things). • Ratio successfully completing secondary is a bit on the low side. • Ratio in post-schooling is terribly low.

11. > South Africa’s figures in an international context

12. > South Africa’s figures in an international context In some rich countries not everyone completes 12 years of education.

13. > South Africa’s figures in an international context

14. > Policy solutions Better learning outcomes: Above all, this is needed in order to ensure that more Grade 12 learners are university-ready (and can become teachers!). Less learner pregnancy: Pregnancy accounts for almost half of female dropouts. A qualification below Grade 12: This will make leaving school before Grade 12 less traumatic, increasing the chances of a smooth transfer to a post-school institution or employment.