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James Brown

RFC Verification Workshop. Plans for expanding probabilistic forecast verification. James Brown. James.D.Brown@noaa.gov. Contents. 1. Future of EVS Release schedule Planned improvements 2. New verification techniques Real time forecasting Screening verification datasets

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James Brown

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  1. RFC Verification Workshop Plans for expanding probabilistic forecast verification James Brown James.D.Brown@noaa.gov

  2. Contents • 1. Future of EVS • Release schedule • Planned improvements • 2. New verification techniques • Real time forecasting • Screening verification datasets • 3. Discussion and feedback survey 2

  3. 1. Future of EVS

  4. Release schedule • XEFS is outside of AWIPS • First limited release of EVS 1.0 beta • MARFC and CNRFC to conduct initial tests • Beginning 09/07 • Other RFCs?? • After initial tests complete (1-2 months) • Depends on expressions of interest 4

  5. Planned improvements • Managing workload • Batch processing (for forecast groups etc.) • Tailor interface for different users • Functionality for screening results • Improved documentation/help • Use cases for different metrics • Improved user’s manual and online help • Confidence intervals for metrics 5

  6. Planned improvements • Longer term goals • Common platform for ensemble forecasting… • …XEFS: common appearance and functions. • Led by HSEB, Steve Shumate and others. • Common platform for verification (with IVP). 6

  7. 2. New verification methods

  8. Prognostic verification • The principle • Live forecast issued X days into future • How well are they likely to perform? • How did similar forecasts perform in past? • Three sources of information: • a) The forecaster: what determines ‘similar’? • b) The past forecasts that are ‘similar’ • c) Past observations corresponding to (b)

  9. Huntingdon, PA: 1st June 1994

  10. Lead day 1 from previous example

  11. North Fork, CA: 13th June 2003

  12. North Fork, CA: 13th June 2003 Lead day 1

  13. Current status • Very early stage • Preparing a manuscript on methods • Generated several examples (/w code) • Critical questions • How to select ‘similar’ forecasts? • Conditioning may be simple or complex • What types of products (graphics etc.)? • What functionality to include in tools?

  14. ‘Meta-verification’ • Screening large verification datasets • Large volumes of data produced by EVS • End-users need condensed data • But a single summary metric = biased view • Better to build rules using several metrics • Make rules ‘aware’ of forecasting situations • Status • Will investigate possibilities soon (e.g. AI) 14

  15. 3. Discussion and feedback 15

  16. Questions What plans for ensemble verification? What priorities for diagnostic verif.? What priorities for real-time verif.? Ideas on specific products for each? 16

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