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Section 6.3 Probability Models

Section 6.3 Probability Models. AP Statistics November 22, 2010. Venn Diagrams: Disjoint Events . S. A. B. Venn Diagrams: Disjoint Events . S. A. B. Venn Diagrams: Non-disjoint Events . S. B. A. A and B. Venn Diagrams: Disjoint Events . S. B. A. A and B. Example.

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Section 6.3 Probability Models

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  1. Section 6.3Probability Models AP Statistics November 22, 2010

  2. Venn Diagrams: Disjoint Events S A B AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  3. Venn Diagrams: Disjoint Events S A B AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  4. Venn Diagrams: Non-disjoint Events S B A A and B AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  5. Venn Diagrams: Disjoint Events S B A A and B AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  6. Example • Deborah and Matthew are awaiting the decision about a promotion. Deborah guesses her probability of her getting a promotion at .7 and Matthew’s probability at .5. AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  7. Example • Deborah and Matthew are awaiting the decision about a promotion. Deborah guesses her probability of her getting a promotion at .7 and Matthew’s probability at .5. D M .5 .7 AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  8. D and M .3 Example • Since there is not enough information to do the problem, let’s add information. Deborah thinks the probability of both getting promoted is .3 D M .5 .7 AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  9. D and M .3 Example • What’s the probability of only Deborah getting promoted P(D-M)? • P(M-D)? • P(Dc)? • P(Mc)? • P(Dc and Mc)? D M .5 .7 AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  10. Different Look AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  11. Different Look AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  12. Different Look AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  13. Different Look AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  14. Different Look AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  15. Assignment • Exercises: 6.46-6.53, all AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  16. AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  17. A=is young (between 18 and 29) • P(A)=? • 22512/103870 AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  18. B=married • P(B)=? • 59920/103870 AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  19. A=is young (between 18 and 29) • B=married • P(A and B)=? • 7842/103870 AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  20. A=is young (between 18 and 29) • B=married • P(A | B)= (Read as “the probability of A given B”) • 7842/59920 • This is known as a “conditional probability” AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  21. A=is young (between 18 and 29) • B=married • P(B | A)= (Read as “the probability of B given A”) • 7842/22512 AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  22. P(A and B)= 7842/103870 • P(A and B)= P(A)*P(B|A) AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  23. P(A and B)= 7842/103870 • P(A and B)= P(B)*P(A|B) AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  24. P(A | B)= P(A and B) / P(B) AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

  25. Assignment • Exercises: 6.54, 6.55-6.61, odd, 6.66-6.77, all • Chapter Review Exercises: 6.78-6.87, all • Sample Test AP Statistics, Section 6.3, Part 1

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