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Forecast & Scheduling Reserve Adequacy Assessment

August 2004. Forecast & Scheduling Reserve Adequacy Assessment. Joseph Mercer Supervisor, ISO-NE Forecast Operations. RAA Presentation. Time line Objective Deliverables Support processes Data and software Regulation optimization Questions.

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Forecast & Scheduling Reserve Adequacy Assessment

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  1. August 2004 Forecast & SchedulingReserve Adequacy Assessment Joseph Mercer Supervisor, ISO-NE Forecast Operations WEM101 – Introduction to ISO-NE’s Wholesale Energy Market Market Analysis & Training

  2. RAA Presentation • Time line • Objective • Deliverables • Support processes • Data and software • Regulation optimization • Questions WEM101 – Introduction to ISO-NE’s Wholesale Energy Market Market Analysis & Training

  3. SMD Timeline for Day-Ahead (DA) and RAA Processes Day before the Operating Day 1600 hrs.Post DAMSchedules, Open Re-Offer Period 1800 hrs. Close Re-Offer Period, Begin RAA process 2200 hrs.Complete Initial RAA process 1200 hrs.TradingDeadline 0001 hrs.RTMOpens Continue RAA 1100 hrs.Post 7-Day Capacity Margin Forecast 1000 hrs.Post Hourly Load Forecast for next Operating Day 1530 hrs Operations Look-Ahead Meeting Re-Offer Period, Redecs, SS Run, Review, Approve RSC Case Run, Review, Approve REGO Run, Review, Approve SPD / SFT Post Hourly RCP, FI_Unit reports, Issue start orders Operating Day 1100 hrs Market Operations Morning Meeting Focus of this training session Determine VU, 1st, RMR units WEM101 – Introduction to ISO-NE’s Wholesale Energy Market Market Analysis & Training

  4. RAA Objective • To ensure there is sufficient capacity available to meet the ISO-NE Real-Time (RT) demand, reserve requirements, (including replacement reserves), and regulation requirements • If sufficient capacity is scheduled in the Day-Ahead Market (DAM), and all system, congestion, and local area requirements are satisfied, no additional capacity will be scheduled by ISO-NE. • If insufficient capacity is scheduled in the DAM, ISO-NE will commit internal generators to meet ISO-NE system, congestion, and/or local area requirements: • The objective is to minimize the cost of bringing the capacity to the Market (Minimize the start-up, no load, and energy cost to operate at EcMin). WEM101 – Introduction to ISO-NE’s Wholesale Energy Market Market Analysis & Training

  5. RAA Deliverables • Forecast of ISO-NE hourly demand for current and next six days by 10:00 • Periodic Updates • 7-Day Forecast of ISO-NE Capacity Margin (11:00) • Publish FI_Unit reports for non-Fast Start units with each RAA update. Notify long lead time units of start-up times. • Initial RAA published by 22:00 for next Operating Day • RAA updates of the current operating day are published periodically throughout the operating day. • Publish hourly Regulation Clearing Prices by 22:00 for next operating day WEM101 – Introduction to ISO-NE’s Wholesale Energy Market Market Analysis & Training

  6. Development of Demand Forecast • Utilize three weather forecast vendors • Hourly Temperature, Dew Point, Wind Speed & Direction, Cloud Cover, and Precipitation for eight New England (NE) cities for current day and next six days. • Boston, Worcester, Hartford, Bridgeport, Concord, Portland, Burlington, and Providence • Each vendor multiple city forecast aggregated into single ISO-NE forecast via fixed city weights. • Multiple vendor ISO-NE forecasts aggregated into single ISO-NE forecast via user-entered weights. WEM101 – Introduction to ISO-NE’s Wholesale Energy Market Market Analysis & Training

  7. Development of Demand Forecast • Utilize several demand forecasting tools • Similar Day • Search engine compares weather forecast parameters and identifies days with best fit. • Up to six days can be pulled from database into spreadsheet application • User adjusts for energy growth and differences between historical and forecast weather (temperature, dew point, cloud cover, and precipitation). • Aggregates adjusted model days into single similar day forecast via user-entered weights. • 4 EPRI Artificial Neural Network • Metrix ND regression model • Individual demand forecasts aggregated into single ISO-NE Demand Forecast using user-entered weight factors. WEM101 – Introduction to ISO-NE’s Wholesale Energy Market Market Analysis & Training

  8. 7-Day Forecast of ISO-NE Capacity Margin • Published each day by 11:00 • Utilizes • Total Seasonal Claimed Capability (+) • Capacity available above SCC (+) • Known outages and reductions (-) • Schedule outages and reductions (-) • Allowance for forced outages and reductions (-) • Unit unavailable due to start time (-) • Anticipated net external transactions (-) • Forecast peak demand (-) • Forecast reserve requirement (-) • Indicates peak hour capacity margin for days 2-7 • Morning Report contains current day capacity margin. WEM101 – Introduction to ISO-NE’s Wholesale Energy Market Market Analysis & Training

  9. Market Operations Morning Meeting • Attended by: • Market Administrator, • Forecaster, • DA/RT Transmission Specialist • Discuss all approved transmission network maintenance for the next Operating Day. • Discuss Generation Requirement for Transmission (GRT) • Discuss generator availability to support GRT and transmission network maintenance. WEM101 – Introduction to ISO-NE’s Wholesale Energy Market Market Analysis & Training

  10. Determine Reliability Requirements • ISO-NE reliability commitments include • Voltage control during light load periods (VU flag) • Special Constraint Resource request by Satellite, Transmission Owner of Load Serving Entity (SCR flag) • 1st line contingency for local and import congestion area (no flag) • Reliability Must Run to meet 2nd line/generator contingency in an import congestion area (RMR flag) • Spinning Reserve Requirement (SPIN flag) • Regulation Requirement (REG flag) • ISO-NE System Operating Reserve Requirement (no flag) WEM101 – Introduction to ISO-NE’s Wholesale Energy Market Market Analysis & Training

  11. Determine Reliability Must Run • Using the forecast area demand, the GRT interface limits, the generator current operating plan, determine RMR generator commitment • If transfer exceeds the 1st line contingency limit • Include 2/3 of available off-line 10 and 30 minute resources (ICU) • Additional generator commitment required, no commitment flag set • If transfer exceeds the 2nd generation contingency limit • Include 2/3 of available off-line 10 and 30 minute resources (ICU) • Include NOP4 actions • Include load swap if it has been set-up for switching via SCADA • If additional generator commitment required, flag as RMR • If transfer exceeds the 2nd line contingency limit • Include 2/3 of available off-line 10 and 30 minute resources (ICU) • Include NOP4 actions • Include load swap if it has been set-up for switching via SCADA • Include load shed, if authorized by LSE (400MW) • If additional generator commitment required, flag as RMR WEM101 – Introduction to ISO-NE’s Wholesale Energy Market Market Analysis & Training

  12. Operations Daily Look-Ahead Meeting • Attended by: • Forecasters, • DA/RT Transmission Specialist • CR Shift Supervisor • Forecast weather and demand • Approved transmission network maintenance • Generation Requirement for Transmission (GRT) • Generator availability (AI, STO, ECON, Forced) • Transmission maintenance that requires/limits generator availability. • Anticipated capacity margin • Other power system reliability issues (extreme heat or cold, hurricane/blizzard, etc.) WEM101 – Introduction to ISO-NE’s Wholesale Energy Market Market Analysis & Training

  13. Re-Offer Period Re-Offer Period (16:00 – 18:00) • Generators not scheduled in DA can waive start and no load prices and can change energy prices for consideration in RAA and real-time dispatch. • Intermittent Resources can SS for Real-time. • Generators can re-declare operating limits to reflect the station physical capabilities. • Generators can request self commitment or de-commitment and changes to Self-Schedules (SS) • Approved if request does not cause or worsen a reliability constraint • Capacity Deficiency, Minimum Generation Emergency, congestion area or local requirement WEM101 – Introduction to ISO-NE’s Wholesale Energy Market Market Analysis & Training

  14. RAA Process (Resource Scheduling & Commitment) • RSC is the commitment engine of the MSS software • No access to transmission network model • Single system marginal price • Data • Uses positive difference between ISO forecast demand and DA cleared demand as an adder to the Operating Reserve requirement. • DA generator commitment schedules • Generator self-commitment or de-commitment approved during Re-Offer Period • Re-declarations of generator limits • RT external transactions that have checked out with the neighboring CA • ISO-NE reliability commitment (Voltage Control, 1st contingency, RMR, SCR) • If additional commitment is required to meet the system-wide Operating Reserve, minimize the start-up, no load and operating cost at EcMin output. WEM101 – Introduction to ISO-NE’s Wholesale Energy Market Market Analysis & Training

  15. RAA Process (Scheduling, Pricing & Dispatch) • SPD is the dispatch engine of the MSS software • Transmission network model • ISO-NE Forecast Hourly Demand • Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP) • Performs the economic dispatch of the COP to meet the ISO-NE forecast of hourly demand • Develop hourly schedules for generators, dispatchable external transactions, and dispatchable demand (pump load) • Considers generator ramp rates when progressing from hour to hour • Link to RSC for Limited Energy Generator logic (will not violate the Daily Maximum Energy) • Considers network model constraints (Line limits, interface limits) • Produces hourly generator, external transaction, and pumped storage schedules. • FI_Unit Reports are produced from the final SPD case. WEM101 – Introduction to ISO-NE’s Wholesale Energy Market Market Analysis & Training

  16. RAA Process (Simultaneous Feasibility Test) • SFT is a power flow application that performs Contingency Analysis (CA). • Uses a pre-defined set of contingencies, • Determines post contingency power flows, • Returns a set of generator constraints to SPD for re-dispatch • SPD / SFT iterations are performed for each hour WEM101 – Introduction to ISO-NE’s Wholesale Energy Market Market Analysis & Training

  17. Regulation Optimization (REGO) • Calculates the hourly LOC for generators included in the COP that are available for regulation • LOC represents the out-of-merit operation that would be required should the unit be placed on regulation. • Generator regulation offer and LOC value are added to determine the unit’s hourly regulating merit order price. • Software ranks the available regulating units in ascending merit order price and determines the least expensive set of units needed to meet the ISO-NE regulating requirement for each hour of the upcoming Operating Day. • Hourly RCP are posted to web site by 2200 of the upcoming Operating day. WEM101 – Introduction to ISO-NE’s Wholesale Energy Market Market Analysis & Training

  18. Questions WEM101 – Introduction to ISO-NE’s Wholesale Energy Market Market Analysis & Training

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