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Defining the Canadian-Class Gold Mine. Michael Doggett Department of Geological Sciences and Geological Engineering, Queen’s University Jianping Zhang Minerals, Oil and Gas Sector Resources, Wildlife and Economic Development Government of the Northwest Territories PDAC Toronto 9 March 2004.
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Defining the Canadian-Class Gold Mine Michael DoggettDepartment of Geological Sciences and Geological Engineering, Queen’s UniversityJianping ZhangMinerals, Oil and Gas Sector Resources, Wildlife and Economic DevelopmentGovernment of the Northwest Territories PDAC Toronto 9 March 2004
Case Study: Canadian Gold Mining • 228 gold mines operating in Canada from 1946-2000 • Production profile for each mine • Annual tonnage processed • Annual average grade processed • Annual processing recoveries • Annual gold production • Annual production costs
Canadian Gold Mining • Production profiles include entire mine life plus reserves as of January 2001 • Total ore processed – 1.1 billion tonnes • Total gold produced – 7,700 tonnes • Total production years – 3,500 years
Geological Attributes of Canadian Gold Mines • Composite year-over-year statistics • Totals and averages • Mine-by-mine comparisons • Geological size considerations
Year-over-Year Geological Attributes • Number of mines • Ore processed • Total and average • Grade of ore processed • Gold Production • Total and average
Relationship Among Geologic Attributes • Tonnage - grade • Tonnage - gold • Grade - gold
Geological Size Considerations • Giant mines – containing more than 100 tonnes of recoverable gold • Large mines – containing less than 100 tonnes and more than 10 tonnes of recoverable gold • Small mines – containing less than 10 tonnes of recoverable gold
Geologically Giant Mines • 22 mines (10% of total) • 605 million tonnes of ore (55% of total) • Average size of 30 million tonnes • 4,845 tonnes of gold (63% of total) • Average gold production 220 tonnes • 8.58 grams per tonne average grade • Average mine life of 50 years
Geologically Large Mines • 78 mines (34% of total) • 420 million tonnes of ore (39% of total) • Average size of 5.4 million tonnes • 2,494 tonnes of gold (32% of total) • Average gold production 32 tonnes • 6.27 grams per tonne average grade • Average mine life of 25 years
Geologically Small Mines • 128 mines (56% of total) • 65 million tonnes of ore (6% of total) • Average size of 0.6 million tonnes • 371 tonnes of gold (5% of total) • Average gold production 2.9 tonnes • 6.23 grams per tonne average grade • Average mine life of 6.2 years
Comparison of Total Geological Attributes among Giant, Large, and Small Mines
Time Trends in Geological Size Attributes • Number of mines • Ore processed • Annual Capacity • Gold produced
Trend of Average Mine Capacity of Giant, Large, and Small Mines
Trend in Gold Production Share by Giant, Large, and Small Mines
Economic Quality of Canadian Gold Mines • Which of the historical mines would be economic if found today • Current technological and market outlook conditions • Base case gold price - $325 US • Base case exchange rate – 0.65 • Base case cost of capital – 8%
Economic Attributes • On a before-tax basis, 102 of the 228 historical mines in Canada would be economic to develop today • These mines would generate approximately: • $100 billion in total sales revenue • $15 billion in net present value • 45% average rate of return
Tonnage-Grade Relationship between Economic and Uneconomic Mines
Economic Size Considerations • Giant mines – top 10% of mines based on NPV. Minimum size of $440 million • Large mines – generate less than $440 million and more than $44 million in NPV • Small mines – generate less than $44 million in NPV (1 to 10 ratio with giants)
Economic Giant Mines • 10 mines (10% of total) • $47 billion total revenue (43% of total) • Average revenue of $4.7 billion • $7.1 billion in NPV (49% of total) • Average rate of return of 50%
Economic Large Mines • 42 mines (41% of total) • $43 billion total revenue (40% of total) • Average revenue of $1.02 billion • $6.4 billion in NPV (44% of total) • Average rate of return of 45%
Economic Small Mines • 50 mines (49% of total) • $18 billion total revenue (17% of total) • Average revenue of $0.4 billion • $1.0 billion in NPV (7% of total) • Average rate of return of 27%
SUMMARY Breakdown of Economic and Uneconomic Mines by Recoverable Gold