Fróðskaparsetur Føroya Tórshavn 26. September 2013

1. Fróðskaparsetur FøroyaTórshavn26. September 2013 Avbjóðingar í framtíðar útbúgvingum Udfordringer fremtiden stiller for uddannelse Jón Torfi Jónasson MenntavísindasviðHÍ, School of Education University of Iceland jtj@hi.is http://www3.hi.is/~jtj/

2. Mine udgangspunkter My points of departure I am assuming – and I believe, that the Nordic education enterprise is generally doing quite well, in many respects very well, even though there is, as always, room for improvement. Thus we are wondering how we may do even better and continue our good work for many decades to come. My approach is both very positive and optimistic. I want to ensure that our citizens young and old can take the initiative, be creative and be able to be in control of their lives and environment. Jeg går ud fra - og jeg tror, at nordisk uddannelse generelt klarer sig ganske godt og i mange henseender meget godt, selv om der er, som altid, plads til forbedringer. Derfor overvejer vi, hvordan vi kan gøre det vi gør, endnu bedre og fortsætte vores gode arbejde i mange årtier ind i fremtiden. Min tilgangerbådemegetpositivogoptimistisk. Jegønsker at sikre, at voresborgereungesomgamlekantageinitiativ, værekreativeogværeikontrol over dereslivogmiljø. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

3. Hvor er vi henne I vores diskussion vedrørende uddannelse, meget generelt?Where are we now within education? On balance? How is the school system addressing the past, the present and the future? JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

4. Indhold Content Hvorfor tale om det? Udfordringer for uddannelse Fremtiden Uddannelse Inerti, træghed, konservativisme Hvordan overfører man idéer om fremtiden til uddannelse. Hvilken mekanisme(r) kunne man bruge? Why talk about this? Challenges for education The future Education Inertia, resistance to change How do you map the future onto education? What mechanism(s) could be used? JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

5. Hvorfor tale om det? Why talk about it? Et vigtigt område – forsømt indenfor uddannelses sektoren. Det er meget vigtigt at den uddannelse som vi tilbyder er ægte og troværdig, d.v.s har det indhold og den kultur som idéen om uddannelse bygger på. Jeg vil også tage op diskussionen om ansvar: hvilket ansvar har myndighederne, akademikerne, skolerne og lærerene vis-à-vis de spørgsmål jeg rejser? Hidtil så er der (næsten) ingen som tror at han har noget ansvar og det synes jeg at er meget alvorligt. An important area - neglected within the education sector. It is very important that the education that we offer is genuine and credible, i.e. has the content and the culture on which the idea of ​​education is based. I also want to take up the discussion of responsibility: What responsibility do the authorities, schools and teachers assume vis-à-vis the questions I raise. So far there is no one that thinks he has any responsibility for this arena and I think that is very serious. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

6. Hvorfor tale om det? Why talk about it? Jeg spørger: Hvem følger på en systematisk måde udviklingen på adskillige områder, med hensyn til uddannelse? I ask: Who follows in a systematic way the development in several areas, with reference to education? JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

7. De store udfordringer for uddannelse - i fremtiden The Grand Challenges for education - in the future • Her nævner jeg de største udfordringer og jeg synes de er næsten ikke diskuterede - nogen steder (inden for uddannelse, undtagen helst nr. 2) • Overføring (projicering) af fremtiden oven på uddannelse • Brobygning mellem forskning og praksis inden for uddannelse • Uddannelse, demokrati og lighed • Se at LLL bliver central i uddannelses systemet • Hvordan kan man lade det virke at skolerne tager initiativet for fremtiden • Uddannelse af lærere – fragmentering af professionen. • Here I am noting the biggest challenges – and they are generally not discussed anywhere (within education, except nr. 2) • Mapping the future onto education • Forging the research-praxis nexus within the system of education • Education, democracy and equity • Moving LLL to the centre of the educational system • The teacher as the initiator of change dilemma • The professional education of teachers – the fragmentation problem. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

8. Fremtiden The future Can we predict? No, but of course, there are quite a few very important phenomena we know that are evolving or changing fast – very fast and very robustly and regularly What characterizes the development? There are quite many areas developing exponentially and it is very important to understand what it means. But unfortunately there are quite many who do not. Kan vi forudsige, spå? Nej, men jovist, der er ganske mange meget vigtige fænomener vi ved at udvikler sig eller ændrer sig hurtigt – lynhurtigt og mæget regelmæssigt. Hvad præger udviklingen? Der er ganske mange områder som udvikles eksponentielt og det er meget vigtigt at forstå hvad det betyder. Men desværre er de ganske mange som ikke gør det. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

9. I mange områdersåerdetmuligt at forudsehvaddersker Jegvisernogleeksemplersomallevisereksponentielvækst (Albert Bartlett) Og vi snakkeromændringersomerheltregelmæssige over langtid. Most of this is robustly regular, not only over 25 years but probably 125 years and the growth 1970-2010 could have been accurately predicted in most cases. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

10. An example of exponential growthAssume that the start value is the number of students going to university, expressed as % of one cohort. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

11. Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-1970 JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

12. Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-1970-2010 JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

13. Expansion of HE systems – The Nordic countries JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

14. Expansion of HE systems – Three different systems JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

15. The rate of growth in scientific publication and the decline in coverage provided by Science Citation IndexPederOlesenLarsen1 and Markus von Ins2Scientometrics. 2010 September; 84(3): 575–603. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2909426/Fig. 3. Number of records for nine databases 1907–2007 (semi logarithmic scale) JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

16. The rate of growth in scientific publication and the decline in coverage provided by Science Citation IndexPederOlesenLarsen1 and Markus von Ins2Scientometrics. 2010 September; 84(3): 575–603. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2909426/ “... whether the growth rate of scientific publication is declining? The answer is that traditional scientific publishing, that is publication in peer-reviewed journals, is still increasing although there are big differences between fields. There are no indications that the growth rate has decreased in the last 50 years. At the same time, publication using new channels, for example conference proceedings, open archives and home pages, is growing fast.” “A tentative conclusion is that old, well established disciplines including mathematics and physics have had slower growth rates than new disciplines including computer science and engineering sciences but that the overall growth rate for science still has been at least 4.7% per year. However, the new publication channels, conference contributions, open archives and publications available on the net, for example in home pages, must be taken into account and may change this situation.” JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

17. Eksempelpåeksponentielvækst JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

18. Et eksempel, der viservækst i tidsskrifteromklimaændringer JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

19. Eksempelpåeksponentielvækst JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

20. Staðan tekin JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

21. Eternal exponetial growth?From Kristín Vala and Harald Sverdrup JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

22. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

23. Men denneudvikling er ikke let at måle, men den er meget intressant og vigtig – men ogsåuklar. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

24. Stærke grunde til at ændre uddannelse Powerful reasons to change education The school system has the role to prepare for the future. Developments in recent years suggest we should put more emphasis on ethics. There are massive big global challenges related to demographics, energy, food, climate, ... The emphasis placed on sustainability is a good reason to direct our system far more towards this issue. New knowledge in all disciplines requires that old content is replaced by new (e.g. genetics should play a very big role). Skolesystemet har den rolle at forberede for fremtiden. Udviklingen i de sidste år peger på at vi skulle lægge større vægt på etik. Der er massive store globale, udfordringer, i forbindelse med demografi, energi, mad, klima, … Den vægt vi lægger på bæredygtighed er i for sig god grund til at rette vore system langt mere imod den sag. Ny viden i alle discipliner kræver at man skifter ud nyt for gammelt (f.eks. genetik skulle spille en meget stor rolle). JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

25. Stærke grunde til at ændre uddannelse Powerful reasons to change education New technology could change our ways of working in almost every area we deal with, but also in our social life. A whole new culture to communicate both socially and at work can transform the concept of education. The job market is changing in many ways; the old job can become completely transformed and a large number of new jobs emerge. In addition, people will switch jobs more than before. Completely new skills are required and the school system must adapt. There are good research projects in education that suggest ways to substantial changes in how to educate people inside and outside the system. Ny teknologi kunne ændre vores arbejdsmåder i næsten alle områder vi beskæftiger os med, men også i vores sociale liv. En helt ny kultur at kommunikere både samfundsmæssigt og i arbejde kan transformere begrebet at uddanne sig. Job markedet ændrer sig på mange måder; gamle job kan helt transformeres og et stort antal nye job bliver til. Desuden skifter man job mere en før. Helt nye kompetencer kræves og skolesystemet må tilpasse sig. Der findes gode forskningprojekter inden for uddannelse som kan inspirere store forændringer i hvordan man uddanner indenfor og udenfor systemet. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

26. So why should we, not be content with small steps forward? • The formal argument. Many statutes (laws) on education, require the school system to prepare for the future, not just for to-morrow, but also the day after (even if we don’t exactly know how). II. The ethical dimension. There is a strong indication that social and ethical issues are (largely neglected) long term goals for education. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

27. So why should we, not be content with small steps forward? III. Global or grand challenges are now considered to call for a total rethink of the funding of research; similarly it calls for a re-evaluation of the educational system for the same purposes. Seee.g. 2009– Lund declaration; climate change, food and energy security and the ageing society; See also“New worlds – new solutions”. See also 2008, Challenging Europe’s Research: Rationales for the European Research Area (ERA). IV. The sustainability issue. The (over)use of the worlds resources and the general call for a self sustainable local and global economy and culture. This presents an enormous challenge to the future generations; a host of problems need to be solved. Self sustainability, use of resources and energy production see e.g. UNESCO’s Teaching and Learning for a Sustainable Future. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

28. So why should we, not be content with small steps forward? V. New knowledge. The fast development of scientific and technological knowledge calls for a thorough revision of curriculum in a number of fields but probably more importantly for totally new subjects for study. We can find fields with doubling time down to 2-5 years but even if it is 10-20 years this is very fast. This should be taken into account and the redesign of the curriculum should be considered. VI. New technology. Technological development allows for dramatic changes in a whole spectrum of tasks. In the computer field the doubling time can be around 1-3 years. All kinds of tools for designing, communicating, writing, calculating etc. etc. will be used. Many tasks of today are already obsolete. Assume our students will use these tools; all of them and much more. “General-purpose computing capacity grew at an annual rate of 58%. The world's capacity for bidirectional telecommunication grew at 28% per year, closely followed by the increase in globally stored information (23%).” Martin Hilbert1* and Priscila López2 2011 Science April 1 http://www.sciencemag.org/content/332/6025/60.full.pdf JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

29. So why should we, not be content with small steps forward? VII. New cultures of connection and communication. The communication technology similarly calls for important changes. Whether it is the environment afforded by Web 2.0 or Web 3.0 (semantic web) , 4.0 (symbiotic web) we may anticipate important changes. The recent development of GSM, tablets etc. underlines that much of the technology the children use today will soon become obsolete; but some of ours schools still operate as if not even these instruments are there, as normal tools of their lives. The same applies to other levels of education. VIII. Changes in labour markets. Global changes in the labour market, both cultural and technical within the jobs themselves, but also mobility issues. Jobs change fast, people move fast within a particular labour market; the situation in many sectors is already very different from what was the case only 10 years ago. These changes call for a discussion of the role of the education system, not only to respond to the employment market but to have a proactive influence. Education could play an active role rather than the thoroughly passive one it is accustomed to. See Nearly half of US jobs could be at risk of computerization, Oxford Martin School study shows, this is over the next two decades. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

30. So why should we, not be content with small steps forward? IX. The demand for new skills for our new economy and culture. This is a discussion that has got furthest but perhaps has made least headway. Now there are easily 20, 25 years since this claim started to emerge (forgetting Dewey in the 1910s). The call was for new or 21st century skills, or key skills or competencies (European Union). but has not had much success X. Substantial research on education, teaching and schooling affords a lot of suggestions for change to our educational practices. Thousands of research papers are published on every aspect of educational practice every year (perhaps 6-10 thousand articles every month). But it is very unclear what impact it has on education; in fact the channels for the interaction between the two are not very wide. But a host of suggestions for change exist. But research should mostly inspire further research, let it not necessarily control all we do. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

31. Skills that probably should play a central role in our curriculum; not a marginal role as some people think. • New skills, 21st century skills • http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/education_culture/publ/pdf/ll-learning/keycomp_en.pdf • http://www.p21.org/ • http://www3.hi.is/~jtj/greinar/JTJ%20DISCUSSION%20PAPER%20May%2031-2010.pdf JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

32. Uddannelse Education My view is that one should not wait for all the new developments and try to react. But this seem to be the stance now. I think we should be more proactive, be at the front. But it seems that there is not much interest in it. Mit udgangspunkt er at man skal ikke vente på alle de nye udviklinger og så prøve at reagere. Men sådan virker det nu. Man skulle være proaktiv, være med på fronten. Men det ser ud til at der er ikke in stor interesse for det. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

33. Uddannelse Education Hvorfor uddanner man folk i skole i 2+9+3 = 14, år eller 3+9+3+5 = 20 år eller .... Til hvilken grad er det for fortiden (kulturarven o.s.v.)? nutiden og den komplekse verden vi lever i daglig? fremtiden og det samfund og det arbejdsliv der venter os? Er det for personen, eller samfundet, eller arbejdslivet, eller måske alle disse og hvilken vægt skal man så lægge på hvert hensigt eller mål? Why do we educate people in school for 2 +9 +3 = 14 years or 3 +9 +3 +5 = 20 or more years To what extent is this for the past (cultural heritage etc.)? the present and the complex world we live in everyday? the future and the society and the work that awaits us? Is it for the person or the community, or work, or perhaps all of these and what weight should we put on each intention or goal? JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

34. Uddannelse Education Og spørgsmålet er hvordan opnår man demål man har for børn og unge og ældre som skal leve og fungeregodt i 2030-2060 og i hvilkengradskulledenværeanderledes en man troede var bedst i 1950 eller 1970 tallet. Jegtrordetskullegøres helt anderledes. And the question is how do we achieve the goals we have for children and young and older people, for them to live and work successfully in 2030-2060 and to what extent should it be different than was thought to be best in 1950 or 1970. I think it should be done very differently. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

35. Når jeg hævder at man har ikke tænkt som jeg gør nu så er det selvfølgelig uretfærdigt fordi vi har jo den flotte og jeg tror klassiske rapport: Delors four pillars of education, from the 1996 Learning: the Treasure Within:Learning to do to be informed and for some, to be skilled toknow Men til trods for alle disse idéer er der mange som tror at skolen skulle kun beskæftige sig med de gamle mål: tolive tobe JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

36. To perspektiver - to historier Historien om udviklingen af ​​uddannelsen, hvordan vi lærer af uddannelse i gamle dage, deltager i den nuværende og forestiller os fremtidige metoder og opgaver for uddannelsen. Historien om den nuværende uddannelse, hvordan vi respekterer fortiden, forstår og håndterer nutiden og forbereder os for fremtiden. Uddannelsesnhistorie Voresfortid Voresnutid Uddannelseinutiden Uddannelseifremtiden Voresfremtid JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

37. En nyverden, nyekampeomlæreplaner Komplet fornyelse af de eksisterende fag Heltnye fag De grundlæggende målsætninger for uddannelse skal revurderes hele tiden Fagenei de 19. og 20. århundreder Nye værktøjer, nyekulturer Nye færdigheder --vigtige kompetencer JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

38. A schematic diagram indicating the way many people think (implicitly) about education, accepting a relatively sensible description for the 1950’s It is suggested here that a much more appropriate description or conceptual framework would be (note we are hinting at 5 x 20 year periods): JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

39. Inerti - Modstand mod forandring Inertia – Resistance to change JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

40. Inerti, træghed, konservativisme Inertia, resistance, a conservative stance Ofte når man taleromændringersåkommer man til sidst til at anerkende at der er nogle som ikke vil ændringer. Og der er mange i dengruppenår man kommer til uddannelse. Og jeg har fundet i detmindstetigodegrunde til at tro at uddannelsesindhold, arbejdsmetoder, kultur og system vil ændre sig meget langsomt – alt for langsomt. Often when we talk about changes, in the end one comes to recognize that there are some people that don’t want change. And there are many in this group when one comes to education. And I have found at least ten good reasons to believe that the educational content, methods, culture and system will change very slowly – far too slowly. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

41. Possible explanations why education will change too slowly Mulige forklaringer hvorfor uddannelse vil ændre sig for langsomt The general discourse is very conservative New ideas are unclear Old ideas were once good If we don't change nothing happens! The restraining forces are often powered by large vested interests Nobody as the overview over what is happening and is pushing for change Standards are very conservative Educational leaders are preoccupied with other things The logistics of change are overwhelming Research is essentially and largely backward looking Den generelle diskurs er meget konservativ Nye idéer er uklare Gamle idéer var engang god Hvis vi ikke ændrer, intet dårligt sker! Fastholdelseskræfterne er ofte drevet af store særinteresser Der ingen som har overblik over udviklingen og presser på for forandring Standarder er meget konservative System og skole ledere og lærere er optaget af andre ting Logistikken i ændring er overvældende Forskning er hovedsagelig og i vid udstrækning tilbageskuende JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

42. What are we researching, talking about? Where is the focus? understandably? Hvadforsker vi med? Oghvaddiskuterer vi iforbindelse med uddannelsensfremtid? Hvadfokuserer vi på, forståeligtnok? Uddannelsesforskninggenerelt Uddannelsesforskningsigtedmodfremtiden Diskussionsigtedmoddenæste 5-15 år Diskussionsigtedmoddenæste 10-25 år JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

43. Why inertia? There are a number of important reasons. We now turn to the more complex but more intriguing plethora of interacting factors that hold back education, rightly or wrongly; note that I am certainly not talking about ill-meaning conspiratorial factors, but mostly implicit genuinely cultural or systemic factors that happen to be in control. Educational systems evolve notoriously slowly; their history manifests this very clearly; this applies to their form, operation and content. Traditions and traditional values and often very strong interests keep education in the throes of old time (some see this as the role of education). The traditions are strong and so are the restraining forces which stem from many sources. They relate to old or traditional values, old content and old ways of doing things and not least entrenched interests. Of course some old values should be cherished, but which? JTJFróðskaparseturFöroya September 2013

44. Why inertia? There are a number of important reasons. Reason no. 1 The general discourse is conservative. A conservative discourse and ideas held by many outside the educational system who naturally control the course of its development. I am here referring to the views of many parents and politicians; somewhat conservative impetus from industry that the education system serve the economy (yes, but how is that best done ? and which economy?); teacher education, its content and organisation – related inter alia to the time since a lot of the teaching force graduated; conservative ideas proposed by the university as an institution about the education of young people and generally outdated notions about content and how new techniques, new content and new cultures could permeate education. As an agent in this would also be some well established standardised tests, which volunteer to gracefully take the central stage, marginalising other contenders. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

45. Why inertia? There are a number of important reasons. Reason no. 2 The new ideas that are to replace the old, are sometimes woolly or cloudy, not well moulded and sometimes even vacuous. Some might even not be very good! They may also be inherently very very difficult to implement. This applies inter alia to some new ideas that were proposed during the 20th century, e.g. applied to discovery or project learning, ideas fostering creativity, arts or moral values; this also applies to some of the 21st century skills programmes which have been proposed repeatedly for the last 20-30 years. This will probably also apply to the new basic factors in the new EC eight key competencies. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

46. Why inertia? There are a number of important reasons. Reason no. 3 The current ideas were once good. One reason why the push to introduce new ideas is somewhat undermined, is that the rationale, the utility and ambition behind the introduction of the current ideas, some time ago, were all convincing and credible, even though it took a long time for them to win their place. The proponents of some of those ideas may still be operative and still think the ideas they adopted or fought for or introduced stand the test of time. This is partly a problem that may be traced to the older (my) generation but may also influence the judgement of those outstanding young people who did so well with the content and operations of the traditional environment. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

47. Why inertia? There are a number of important reasons. Reason no. 4 Nothing dramatic happens if we don't exchange new ideas for old ones. In fact nothing happens ― yet. This is the fourth reason why it is somewhat cumbersome to secure the place for new ideas replacing old well established and tested ones. (It is relatively safe for the present era not to instigate changes). The ensuing problems are at least two: • Young people are not given the opportunity to do a variety of interesting and valuable things, that new ideas, new skills, new technologies or new cultures might afford them; but of course they will survive nevertheless. • The necessary pre-emptive and proactive action required by many of the grand challenges will be undermined. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

48. Why inertia? There are a number of important reasons. Reason no. 5 The stronghold of vested interests. It is especially important for those who want to argue for replacing new with old that one may seriously threaten a variety of vested interests and ideals of those who are already there. This may operate at several levels and perhaps present the most formidable obstacles of all I mention here. Here we may also introduce a variety of intra-institutional tensions that may stifle change. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

49. Why inertia? There are a number of important reasons. Reason no. 6 Lack of overview and lack of foresight. The sixth reason why new ideas don't emerge is that very few people who are engaged in education have the overview or a wide perspective over all the different, but pressing reasons for change. Very few have the responsibility or opportunity to follow the many quite substantial changes in the social and ethical and technological and cultural environment and speculate about the possible educational implications. The perspective we, in the educational arena, have is often very narrow, far too narrow. Fragmentation of the field of education is one of the most serious problems of education in general. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

50. Why inertia? There are a number of important reasons. Reason no. 7 Standards are conservative. The seventh reason relates to the metrics or indices that are used to indicate standards. These are implicitly very conservative, and the higher the stakes the more so. They are probably normally proposed and defended by those who have a relatively secure position to defend. They are also well intentioned and ambitious. Thus this is not meant to criticize their genuine ambition to retain a high standard. Standards are much more conservative than most of their proponents realise. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013