GEOGRAPHY, CONFLICT AND POVERTY IN NIGERIA.

1. GEOGRAPHY, CONFLICT AND POVERTY IN NIGERIA. By OLANIRAN, Hezekiah Daramola Department of Geography Faculty of the Social Sciences University of Ibadan. August, 2011.

2. Introduction Incidence of ethno-religious conflict is on the rise in Nigeria. Between 1996-2011, 88 cases of ethno-religious conflict had been reported. Incidence of poverty is getting astronomically high in Nigeria. About 54.4% of the population are poor (NBS,2004).

3. OBJECTIVES The specific objectives are; • To examine trends in ethno-religious conflict in Nigeria. • To examine trends in poverty in Nigeria. • To determine the relationship between poverty and conflict and; • To examines the role plays by geography in occurrence of poverty and conflict.

4. Theoretical explanations Basic theories that explain the relationship between ethnicity, conflict, geography and poverty are: • Primordialist theory • Instrumentalist theory • Constructivist theory. • Theory of opportunity cost (Collier and Hoeffler, 1998. • The Chicago School of thought.

5. REVIEW OF LITERATURE Conflict has been found to be related to: • Long legacy of oppression based on caste and ethnicity (Bray et al, 2003; Sengupita, 2005). • Landlessness or relative deprivation (Deraniyagala, 2005; Murshed and Gate, 2005) • Poverty and Underdevelopment (Gersony,2003; Thapa and Sijapati,2004). • Poverty, weak state capacity and geographical conditions (Fearon and Laitin, 2003). • Poverty and geographical location (Do and Iyer, 2009)

6. The geography and economy of Nigeria • Located in the tropics (Lat 10:00 N and Long 8:00E. • Total land area= 923,768 sq km • Population = 140 million (NPC, 2006). • Population Density= 166.0 per sq km.

7. The geography and economy of Nigeria contd. • Ethnic group: Hausa/Fulani=29%, Yoruba=21%, Ibo=18%. • Religion: Muslim=50%, Christian=40%, Traditional=10% • GDP US$= 1152.82 (2009) • HDI= 0.436 (2010) Compare to Norway (0.954),US (0.917), South Africa (0.581).

8. DATA SOURCES Data were gathered from various sources for this study; • For measurement of ethno-religious conflict, the author scoop data from newspaper reports, Magazine, internet publications, journal article and other relevant unpublished materials. • Data on socio-economic data were obtained from Central Bank annual reports (2005& 2009), National Bureau of Statistics (2005 & 2009), Federal Ministry of finance, National Population Commission and Nigeria Metrological Authority

9. VARIABLES USED Model 1: Y= Ethno-religious conflict, Xi= Total Population. Model 2= Y= Ethno-religious conflict. X1= Area sq km, X2=Total Pop, X3= Poverty Headcount X4= Total Revenue X5= Distance from the coast, X6 =Major religion, X7= Distance to Abuja, X8= GDP, and X9= Total Expenditure.

10. VARIABLES USED contd. Model 3 & 4: Y= Poverty Headcount Xi= Area sq km, X2= Total Pop, X3= Unemployment rate, X4= Total Revenue, X5= Dist. From Coast, X6= Major religion, X7= Dist. To Abuja, X8= GDP X9= Total Expenditure, X10=HDI. Model 4 has Poverty Headcount as X9.

11. METHOD OF ANALYSIS Method of regression analysis was principally employed in the analysis of the data. Regression model is given as; Y= a + b1x1 + b2x2………bnxn + e Where; Y= Dependent variable a= Constant b= Coefficients of variable factor x= Explanatory variable e= error term.

12. Discussion on data 1 Trends in incidence of poverty in Nigeria Source: National Bureau of Statistics

13. DISCUSSION ON DATA 2 HDI, HPI and Ethno-religious conflict by regions. Source: HDR and Personal Survey.

14. Result of regression models and discussion Model 1: (Stepwise regression): Ethno-religious conflict and Total population. R = 0.478 R2 = 0.228 P= 0.016

15. RESULT OF REGRESSION .MODELS CONTD. Model 2: (Simple linear regression); Y= Ethno-religious conflict R= 0.765 R2= 0.585 P= 0.004 Important coefficient TOPOP= 0.671 P=0.000 PHCOUNT=0.445 P=0.020 TOREV =2.749, P=0.48 DISTCOAST= 0.700 p=0.012

16. RESULT OF REGRESSION .MODELS CONTD. Model 3: (Simple linear regression) Y=Poverty Headcount R=0.712 R2+0.506 P= 0.022 Important Beta AREASQKM =0.466 P=0.031 UNEMPLOYRT =0.610 P= 0.007 GDP= 0.263 P=0.443 TOEXP 3.311 P= 0.008

17. RESULT OF REGRESSION .MODELS CONTD. Model 4; (Simple linear regression) Y= HDI R= 0.791 R2= 0.625 P=0.001 Important Beta TOPOP =0.303 P= 0.49 GDP = 0.713 P= 0.008

18. CONCLUSION • The result of our various models shows that ethno-religious conflict is related to some geographical variables, however they are not significant except distance from the coast in model 2. • Models show a relationship between ethno-religious conflict and poverty. • Our Models reinforce the structural perspective on poverty. • Conflict in Nigeria is largely caused by religion as been made to believe. It is both political and economical.

19. RECOMENDATION • Macroeconomic policy that will reduce poverty is needed. • Politicians should stop using religion and ethnicity for achieving political end. • Rule law should entrenched. • Religious bigotry need to be de-emphasized. • Utterances that are capable of cause tension and conflict should be avoided and punished. • Maximum security should be provided in areas that are prone to conflict and security personnel should avoid partisanship.

20. THANK YOU.