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Introduction of the MAHASRI as the Post-GAME Monsoon Research Program in Asia Jun Matsumoto

Introduction of the MAHASRI as the Post-GAME Monsoon Research Program in Asia Jun Matsumoto Department of Earth & Planetary Science, University of Tokyo Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)/ Institute of Observational Research for Global Change (IORGC)

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Introduction of the MAHASRI as the Post-GAME Monsoon Research Program in Asia Jun Matsumoto

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  1. Introduction of the MAHASRI as the Post-GAME Monsoon Research Program in Asia Jun Matsumoto Department of Earth & Planetary Science, University of Tokyo Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)/ Institute of Observational Research for Global Change (IORGC) Chairman of the Post-GAME Planning Working Group Flood in Assam, India, August, 2004

  2. Status of the post-GAME planning • Aug. 28, 2005: 1-st International Planning Workshop at Kyoto, Japan • Sept. 26, 2005: First proposal in the GEWEX Hydrometeorology Panel (GHP) meeting, at Melbourne, Australia • Nov. 1, 2005: 2-nd International Planning Workshop at Tokyo, Japan Still in the build-up stage, until September 2006

  3. Project title (candidates proposed in the final GAME Conference etc.) • COPAM: Coordinated Observation & Prediction of Asian Monsoon (Proposed in the Final GAME Science Conference in December 2004) • COMAP: Coordinated Monsoon Asian Program • GMAP: GEOSS Monsoon Asian Program • ICECREAM: International Cooperative Experiments for Climatic Research on Asian Monsoon • PHACE-AM: Project on Hydro-Atmospheric Collaborative Experiment in Asian Monsoon • COPE-AM: Coordinated Observation and Prediction Experiment in (for) Asian Monsoon • AM-CoRE: Asian Monsoon Coordinated Research and Experiment

  4. Project title (tentative) MAHASRI Monsoon Asia Hydro-Atmosphere Scientific Research and Prediction Initiative or Monsoon Asia Hydrosphere-Atmosphere Scientific Research and Prediction Initiative or Monsoon Asia Hydrospheric-Atmospheric System Research and Prediction Initiative

  5. Bodhisattva Stupa-mahasri 卒都波大吉祥菩萨also known as the Vajra of Joyous Benefit. Stupa refers to the 5 Elements that constitutes all sentient beings. This deity manifests the joy of liberation in the midst of the endless cycles of birth & death that sentient beings experience.

  6. Objective "To establish hydro-meteorological prediction system, particularly up to seasonal time-scale, through better scientific understanding of Asian monsoon variability".

  7. Key Science Issues (1) • Atmosphere-ocean-land interactions in the Asian monsoon system • Scale-interactions among diurnal, synoptic, intraseasonal and seasonal variability of Asian monsoon • Interactions of surface and boundary layer processes with convective cloud system • Comparisons of hydro-meteorological characteristics among regional monsoon sub-systems

  8. Key Science Issues (2) • Effect of human influences (i.e., aerosols, land-use change, and greenhouse-gas increase) on hydro-meteorological variations in Asian monsoon regions • Down-scaling and up-scaling for/with regional hydro-meteorological modeling and forecast • Transferability of land-surface hydrological models and parameters for prediction of ungauged basins • Incorporation of new technologies for observation and computation

  9. Linear trend of summer precipitation（JJA）:1961-2000 increasing Analysis based on daily rainfall data of more than 700 stations for 1950s-2000 Changes in the Pacific Ocean? Changes in the Tibetan Plateau? Global warming? Aerosol increase? Deforestation over Indochina etc….?? decreasing (Endo et al., 2005)

  10. What will we achieve? • Determine predictability and key phenomena of Asian monsoon variability up-to seasonal time-scale for the use of hydro-meteorological prediction system • Develop real-time monitoring and/or modeling system for hydro-meteorological prediction and water management in specific river basins in Asian monsoon regions • Develop integrated hydrometeorological database of Asian monsoon regions with data rescue

  11. International cooperation strategies • Facilitate and/or improve hydro-meteorological observations in Asian monsoon countries in conjunction with GEOSS • Cooperate with CEOP-II by observations, data and hydrometeorelogical studies in Asian monsoon • Contribute IPY by conducting intensive observations in Asian monsoon region • Capacity building for observation, analysis, data-integration and modeling • Data exchange to establish an integrated database

  12. Differences from GAME？ • More concrete collaboration with Asian hydrometeorological agencies and research institutes 　→ Present proto-type model for the hydrometeorological prediction system • Expansion the target field not only air-land interaction but also air-land-sea interaction, thus closer collaboration with CLIVAR community • Expansion of the target area over the Maritime Continent, Western Pacific, and India, while retreat from Siberia

  13. CEOP IAEA CSEs Data Management Water and Energy Budget Studies Northeast Asia MAHASRI Worldwide Integrated Study of Extremes East Asia Tibet/Himalaya Stable Water Isotope Intercomparison Group Tropics Transferability Water Resource Applications Project

  14. Differences from GAME？ • More concrete collaboration with Asian hydrometeorological agencies and research institutes 　→ Present proto-type model for the hydrometeorological prediction system • Expansion the target field not only air-land interaction but also air-land-sea interaction, thus closer collaboration with CLIVAR community • Expansion of the target area over the Maritime Continent, Western Pacific, and India, while retreat from Siberia • Targeting also winter monsoon • Main time-scale: weekly to seasonal for prediction, year-to-year variability for research including long-term data rescue

  15. Structure of (MAHASRI) Core Centers: • Program promotion office (PPO) for coordination of Observations and Modeling activities • Coordinated Modeling Center (CMC) • Data Archive & Management Center (DAMC) • Regional Centers (RC) Affiliated (coordinated) Projects: • National projects • International or mutli-national projects

  16. Structure of (MAHASRI) Project A Project B Project X PPC CMC DAMC Project C Core Structure Project E APHW AOGS Project D Each Project may be National, multi-national or International. 2005. 11. 1 version

  17. Structure of (MAHASRI) Project A RC-2 RC-1 Project B Project X PPC RC-3 Japan EOS Promotion Program (JEPP) CMC DAMC Project C Core Structure Project E APHW AOGS RC-4 Project D Each Project may be National, multi-national or International. 2005. 11. 1 version

  18. 70° 80° 10° 0° -10° 70° 80° Japan EOS Promotion Program (JEPP) Theme 2-1: Observation Network in Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) Indian-Ocean Mooring Array K. Mizuno (IORGC) Maritime-Continent Radar Network M. D. Yamanaka(IORGC) Radar Observation H. Hashiguchi (KyotoU) Y.Shibagaki (OsakaECU) T.Shimomai (ShimaneU) M.K.Yamamoto(KyotoU) M.Kawashima, Y.Fujiyoshi (Hokkaido U) R. Shirooka, M.Katsumata (IORGC) Data Analysis M. D. Yamanaka (IORGC/KobeU) S. Mori, P.M. Wu, Hamada J.I., S. Ogino, K.Ichiyanagi, T.Sasaki (IORGC) Y.Tachibana (IORGC/TokaiU) Buoy Observation Y. Kuroda (IORGC/MARITEC) K. Ando (IORGC) Y.Yamaguchi,Y.Ishihara K.Matsumoto (MARITEC) Data Analysis Y. Masumoto (IORGC/UTokyo) H.Hase, I.Ueki (IORGC)

  19. Japan EOS Promotion Program (JEPP) Theme 2-2: Observation research and technology development on water cycle and climatic changes in Asian monsoon regionDevelopment of rainfall observation system in Southeast Asia Jun Matsumoto(University of Tokyo ・ JAMSTEC/ IORGC) (2)Flood prediction (1)Rainfall distribution Rainfall estimation by micro wave remote sensing（Sato: NICT） Rainfall estimation using radar（Hayashi:KU., Terao:OGU ） Rainfall observation system study（Matsumoto: UT） Rainfall system and water cycle study （Kuraji: UT） Application of rainfall data to the flood prediction system （Kanae:RIHN） Rainfall database（Agata:UT） Real-time rainfall map and its application to flood prediction

  20. Time Schedule Research phases: • September, 2005-September, 2006: Planning and preparation phase • September, 2006-March, 2011(?): Research phase (2006-07: Build-up new observation systems) • 2008: IOP-year in conjunction with IPY (?) • 2009-2010: Major analysis phase • March, 2011-March, 2012: Concluding phase

  21. Short-term schedule • Nov. 1, 2005: 2-nd International Planning Workshop • Nov. 2-4, 2005: Water Cycle Symposium in Asia • Nov. 4-6, 2005: Workshop on Hydro-informatics and atmospheric sciences, Thailand • Mid-November: Proposal of Science Plan Draft to GEWEX-SSG members • Jan. 2006: Proposal in the GEWEX-SSG • Mar. 2006: Proposal in the WCRP-JSC • April 2006: Workshop in the WMONEX meeting, Malaysia • Oct. 16-18, 2006: APHW Meeting 1-st ISP meeting will be held along with scientific meeting in the special session

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