The Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Studies (MAIRS)

1. The Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Studies (MAIRS) A Project of START/SCOPE Rapid Assessment of Global Environmental Change in East Asia 2-5 November 2004, Manila, Philippines By Yongyuan Yin (Materials provided by Prof. Fu, Z.B.)Adaptation and Impacts Research Group, Environment Canada, and Sustainable Development Research Institute (SDRI)/UBC International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University

2. Outline • Background: the Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Studies (MAIRS) • MARIS BOOK and the Hangzhou Workshop • Highlights of the MARIS Workshop • Recommendations for MARIS Development by Professor Congbin Fu

3. The MAIRS Project • The global change SysTem for Analysis, Research, and Training (START), at the request of the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP), has initiated the Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Studies (MAIRS). • The integrated regional studies are preceded by sub-regional scoping/rapid assessment studies (RAPs) in China/East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. • MAIRS are undertaken jointly by START and its regional networks, and SCOPE, to systematically review current knowledge on regional aspects of global change in Monsoon Asia.

4. The MAIRS Book and Workshop • Each sub-regional RAP will produce an authoritative book of regional assessments. • The China/East Asia Rapid Assessment Workshop: Changes in the Monsoon System of East Asia was held from 6-8 October 2004 in Hangzhou, China.

5. Highlights of the MARIS Workshop • Thematic Section highlights and reviews • Driving forces of change • Variability of the East Asia Monsoon • Changes in land cover, ecosystems and regional climate • Atmospheric composition changes and related impacts • Changes in marine/coastal ecosystems

6. Group Discussions of the Workshop • WG 1: Current Status and Past Trends of the East Asia Monsoon System • This working group discussed both the variations in the paleo data and how this background data can be used • WG2: Human Forcing of Change in the Monsoon System and Region • Topics discussed: ultimate drivers of change including demographic/economic growth, urbanization, industrialization and resource consumption as well as proximate drivers of change, especially land use conversion/intensification, fossil fuel combustion and emissions • WG 3: Responses of the East Asia Monsoon System to Human Forcing • WG 4: Consequences of environmental change for human well-being and development

7. Recommendations for Development of a coordinated data, observation and modeling program of MAIRS: A draft proposal presented by Prof. Congbin Fu for a coordinated regional observational, monitoring and modeling program The participants of the workshop discussed the recommends on future directions of research under the MAIRS program for East Asia

8. Background • What we know about monsoon Asia as a region; • What we do not know,but need to know; • Key issues of sustainable development of Asia; • Central scientific theme of MAIRS; • Requirement for a coordinated data,observation and modeling program of MAIRS.

9. The region is characterized by monsoon climate • Seasonal turning of dominate wind direction and air flow; • Seasonality of precipitation distribution; • Seasonal shifting of monsoon rain-belts;

10. Monsoon is a physical climate system mainly driven by • Solar radiation; • Land – ocean thermal contrast; • Dynamic and thermal-dynamic effects of Tibetan Plateau

11. What we do not know,but need to know • Can monsoon system be modified in certain extent by human activities? • What will be the Monsoon Asian region to be like in 50 years (2050), under both natural and human forcing? • What will be the consequences of these projected changes for the welfare of the Asia region? • What will be the consequences of these changes for the Earth system?

12. Recommendation 1 Central Scientific theme of MAIRS Human-monsoon system interaction and their linkages with the earth systemdynamics

13. WATER FLOOD ARIDIZATION POLLUTION AIR GREEN HOUSE EFFECT AIR QUALITY LAND/WATER USE Global warming/ Monsoon variability/ ENSO Industrialization/ Urbanization Recommendation 2 Key issues of sustainable development of Asia

14. FEEDBACK BIOGEOCHEMICAL/HYDROLOGICAL CYCLES OF THE EARTH SYSTEM GLOBAL CLIMATE KEY PROCESSES ECOLOGICAL LANDSURFACE HYDROLOGICAL ATMOSPHERIC CHEMICAL PROCESS PROCESS PROCESS PROCESS REGIONAL SUSTAINABILITY ECOSYSTEM SECURITY HUMAN HEALTH SOCIAL-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION AIR WATER KEY ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES GREEN HOUSE EFFECT AIR QUALITY FLOOD ARIDIZATION POLLUTION DRIVING FORCES GLOBAL WARMING/ MONSOON VARIABILITY/ ENSO INDUSTRIAZATION/ URBANIZATION LAND/WATER USE

15. Data Requirements Objectives: • Providing the information for understanding mechanisms of interaction between human and Monsoon system in addressing the Air and Water problems • Providing the data base of integrated analysis, modeling and impacts assessment

16. Recommendation 3 Development of a coordinated data and information system of MAIRS • Identification of a set of critical data categories; • Development of a data management system; • Capacity building for development of data management and information subsystems of MAIRS in developing countries

17. Observation data categories

18. Networking available observation networks • Meteorological station network • Ecological station network • Hydrological station network • Environmental Monitoring station network • Flux net • Satellite and remote sensing information • Social and economic information network

19. Development of a data management system Including: data archiving, access, processing, • data exchange and dissemination, • to assure the data sharing, utility and usability;

20. Capacity building •personals training of data management • accessibility of data from various sources • improvement of infrastructure (e.g. laboratory equipment and facilities). Capability of scientists from developing countries to benefit from and contribute to the system

21. Recommendation 4 A proposal on enhanced observation experiments of summer monsoon-human interaction process Objectives • Understanding the interaction of human activities (mainly the industry emission of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and land use) and monsoon climate during the summer monsoon period

22. Enhanced observation and experiments Regions: • Yangtze River Delta • Mekong River delta • Ganges River delta Reasons: most active human development • the population density is highest among the region; • the development of economy and society is most rapidly; • rapid increase of consumption of various kind of natural resources, such as the energy resources, water resources; • rapid increase of emissions of various kinds of green house gases, aerosols and other pollutants into air, water and soil; • the large scale human-induced land cover changes.

23. Main components of observation • Enhanced meteorological observation for monitoring the behaviors of Monsoon system, including surface climate and atmospheric circulation, etc. ; • Atmospheric chemistry observation for monitoring the changes of atmospheric composition, including green house gases and various kind of aerosols; • Land/ocean surface fluxes measurement for understanding land/ocean-atmospheric interaction processes, including water,heat, CO2 and other materials;

24. Main components of observation • Land cover observation for monitoring the human-induced changes of land and vegetation cover; • Ground water system observation for monitoring the changes of water resources and hydrological processes • Remote sensing observationfrom satellite and airplane, etc.

25. Recommendation 5 Development of Regional Earth System Model for Monsoon Asia Regional Integrated Environment Model System (RIMES) to seek the interaction/feedback between atmosphere-biosphere-hydrosphere-anthroposphere Region Earth System Model (RESM)

26. A Regional Earth System Model

27. A Schematic Diagram of RI E MS version II U,V,W,Precipitation,Cloud Global analysis or GCMs outputs MM5v3 Heating Rate Lateral Boundary Scheme Radiation Flux Atmospheric chemistry/ particle model U, V T ,Rh Rh Radiation T Cloud Moisture Package Scheme (CCM3) (O3, CO2, sulphate, black carbon, dust aerosol, etc) P , Cloud Soil moisture Initialization scheme BATS Surface ( revised) Radiation Flux A hydrological model Emission model BIOME 3 Land use model

28. Recommendation 6 Development of linkages with on-going international observation and modeling programs (1)GEWEX/GAME of WCRP, focusing on Asia monsoon in global energy and water cycle experiment with representative sites of Tibetan plateau, Huaihe river basin, tropical monsoon areas and Siberia, etc. (2)CEOP of WCRP, Coordinated enhanced observation period in 2002-2004 with more than 10 reference sites over Asia;

29. Linkages with on-going international observation and modeling programs (3)Asia Flux Net, a net work of stations measuring the water, energy and CO2 fluxes over the land surface of Asia; (4)INDOX, focus on climate-chemistry-aerosol observations over Indian ocean from ships, aircraft, balloon, satellite and surface stations and has discovered the potential impacts of so-called Asia brown cloud on monsoon climate;

30. Linkages with on-going international observation and modeling programs (5)GEOSS, This global earth observation system of the systems under development aims to achieving comprehensive, coordinated, and sustained Earth observations for the benefit of humankind. MAIRS observation program will contribute to and benefit from GEOSS in all aspects; (6) RMIP for Asia, a joint effort of 10 research groups of regional climate modeling researches working for inter-comparison study of regional climate model apply for Asia monsoon region.