CAP CHALLENGES IN CUBA

1. CAP CHALLENGES IN CUBA Presented 23 September, 2015by Jose Rubiera, Ph. D. <rubiera.jose@gmail.com> at the CAP Implementation Workshop (Rome, Italy)

2. Main Weather Hazards in Cuba and Leading Time for Warnings

3. Main Weather Hazards in Cuba and Leading Time for Warnings Just an hour or less!!!!

4. MainWeatherHazards in Cuba and Leading Time forWarnings CAP is the only way to alert people in very fast developing dangerous weather. An example was the squall line that effected Havana (2 million inhabitants) on April 29, 2015. Satellite Severe local storm developed rapidly just in front of Havana. Only a 20-min lead time to warn…. of course, the warning couldn´t go through….. Nobody received it before the event. Radar Winds were up to 27 m/s in a few minutes Atmospheric Pressure dropped to 998 hPa at the same time

5. MainWeatherHazards in Cuba and Leading Time forWarnings The main hazard in this event was the heavy and intense rainfall that disrupted all normal affairs in the 2-million inhabitants city, but fortunately with just one fatality Heaviestprecipitationfell in about 20 minutes. Greatestamountswererecorded in downtownHavana: 239 mm in Plaza de la Revolución; 197 mm in Cerro; 188 mm in Loma de la Cruz; 186 mm in La Palma; and 171 mm in Habana del Este

6. Main Weather Hazards in Cuba and Leading Time for Warnings City normal life completely disrupted in 15 minutes

7. MainWeatherHazards in Cuba and Leading Time forWarnings City normal life completely disrupted in 15 minutes

8. MainWeatherHazards in Cuba and Leading Time forWarnings The most intense rainfall lasted less than half an hour The night fell over a flooded city that was without electric power Havana completely under water

9. Main Weather Hazards in Cuba and Leading Time for Warnings • This intense rain event came over a very vulnerable city without warning. • Warning was issued, but was not received on time, almost by nobody, because of the fast evolution of the event and the slow procedures of writing a warning note, but mainly because of the very slow and complicated mechanisms for distributing the warning message. CAP WOULD HAVE BEEN A FAST, RELIABLE, MEANS FOR THE WARNING TO GO THROUGH IN A SHORT TIME

10. Telecomms in Cuba: CurrentLimitationsfor CAP • Internet not widely used in the Country; Only available for a small amount of people, roughly 3 million users, 25 % of 11 million inhabitants in 2014. • Very Slow Internet connection, normally no wide band. • Very high cost for one-hour surfing, around 8 - 9 % of an average monthly salary after a 50 % price off being in effect since July 2015. • Cell phone are available for many people, but still below 40 % of the population. • No Internet Connection in cell phones.

11. Telecomms in Cuba: New Perspectives and Oportunities for CAP • Currenttrendcallsfor a steadyincrease in Internet Access in thenextfewyears. • Thacost in Internet Access have a downwardtrend; althoughthecostdiminishedbyhalf in July 2015, itstillisveryhighforaveragepeople. • New public places with Internet havebeenopened 2015, as well as 35 publicareaswithwi-fi full internet access in July 2015, alwayswithmanyusersconnected at any time of day, notwithstandingthehighcost of theservice. An increase in Internet connections, including cell phones (3G) is likely to occur in the next years

12. Telecomms in Cuba: New Perspectives and Oportunitiesfor CAP • E-mail is widely used by people in national and international services. A national and International E-Mail service has been opened by ETECSA (National Telecomm Company), which includes cell phone E-Mail accounts since 2014. • Costs of cell phone calls and SMS messaging have been steadily dropping during the last two years; there are also frequent offers, with cheaper service. This trend continues. • There are no cell phones Internet connection yet; only the new 35 wi-fi public áreas created in July 2015. An increase in Internet connections, including cell phones (3G) is likely to occur in the next years

13. StategyDevelopedbyCuba’s NMS toImplement CAP in a Short Timeframe • Toinsert CAP intothe WEB institutionalsite. (AlreadyOperational). • To set a mechanismtoautomaticallysend CAP messagesthrough E-Mail registeredusers (AlmostOperational….. User’slists are beingmade). • Tomakeagreementswiththecellphoneserviceprovidertoautomaticallysend SMS CAP messagetocellphoneusers in a certain áreas – (Conversation are beingmade. There are posibilitiesthatthisoptioncould be operationalbeforetheend of 2015). • To set FinnishSmartAlert web page operationalnextyear (theefficiency of thissystemisverylimitedduetotheratherlowamount of Internet users, butthiswilllikelychange in thenearfuture).

14. StategyDevelopedbyCuba’s NMS toImplement CAP in a Short Timeframe • CAP intothe WEB -- notfastnoravailabletomanypeopletoday, butitwilllikely be so within a fewyears. • CAP messagesautomaticallysentthrough E-Mail -- CAP messagescouldgetto more peoplethantoday, mainlythroughcellphoneswith E-Mail capabilities (Nauta Service). • SMS CAP messagessentautomatically – Themostpromisingway in sightuntil Internet serviceisavailableforall. • ToinsertCuba’s CAP warningsintothe WMO CAP AlertHubtoallowitspublication in aninternationalservice.

15. CONCLUSIONS • CAP is a real need for Cuba’s NMS, mainly in rapidly developing hazardous weather systems. • The Cuban NMS, through its National Forecast Center, is taking all possible steps for the success of the implementation of CAP in Cuba, notwithstanding the technical constrains due to the rather poor development and expansion of the country’s Telecomm systems. • The Cuban NMS is working CAP with sound steps to be fully prepared towards the improvement in Internet and cell phone services that should likely occur in the next few years.

16. ThankyouMuchas GraciasGrazie Mille