1 / 10

CAR Commercial Forum Meeting – September 2013

CAR Commercial Forum Meeting – September 2013. (Chicago Metro) . Robert Carrillo September2013. Macro Economic Trends and Forecast. Estimate for 2013.Q2 GDP is 1.7 indicating modest but sustained growth QOQ Quantitative Easing and Tapering is coming

naomi
Download Presentation

CAR Commercial Forum Meeting – September 2013

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. CAR Commercial Forum Meeting – September 2013 (Chicago Metro) Robert Carrillo September2013

  2. Macro Economic Trends and Forecast • Estimate for 2013.Q2 GDP is 1.7 indicating modest but sustained growth QOQ • Quantitative Easing and Tapering is coming • QE4? Fed likely to taper back on asset purchases • Key interest rates expected to leave rates near 0 (until unempl. rate nears 6.5%). Economists split on when Fed will raise but most say 2015. *Reporting and polling by DeeptiGovind

  3. Jobs • Unemployment dropped to 7.3% Nationally • 63.2% Participation Rate (lowest since 1978) • Economists Mixed (sustained growth at subpar pace

  4. Business Sentiment • Business spending shows growing confidence in the first half of the year • The first quarter spending was down 4.6 percent, with a decline driven by a 25.7 percent drop in spending on commercial structures • However, the second quarter posted a much better performance, with an annual growth rate of 4.6 percent • Spending on commercial buildings rose 6.8 percent • In line with growing demand for properties, prices rose 8 percent on a yearly basis, according to RCA’s Commercial Property Price Index. Prices rose the most for apartments (15%) and retail buildings (13%).

  5. Business Sentiment (cont’d)

  6. General Market Info • Chicago is the 3rd largest US city by population • Employment lagging US and unemployment still high, 10.3 (Chicago) and 9.1 (Illinois), but positive movement being made • Multi-family projected increase of over 225%

  7. Risks and Opportunities • Foreclosure in SFR sector is still a little high • Unemployment slow to recover • Apartments greatest improvement, • due to increased household formations and tight • mortgage underwriting • Multi-family permits forecasted to increase • exponentially, vacancy rates declined sharply • and now stabilizing, inventory dropping and rent • forecasted to increase. Supply and Demand coming in line.

  8. Overall Snapshot Los Angeles = Los Angeles County New York = Manhattan, Brooklyn, Queens and The Bronx Miami = Miami-Dade County Chicago = Illinois component of Chicago MSA Philadelphia = Philadelphia County San Francisco = San Francisco County Population data from US Census Bureau, July 2011 *estimate

  9. BREF Partner Value • Underserviced Market • Our customer is your customer • There are over 27 million small business owners* in the U.S. and they are heavily invested in real estate • Ninety-five (95) percent of small business owners own their personal residence per the National Federation of Independent Business, Access to Credit Study in 2008 • Twenty-two (22) percent have taken out at least one mortgage on their personal residence to finance business activities • Thirty-four (34) percent own the commercial property that houses their small business • Forty-one (41) percent own investment real estate, excluding their residence and business • The majority, fifty-eight (58) percent of those owning investment property, own more than one such property “In Chicago over the past 12 months 82% of CRE sales transactions were <$1million compared to  53% in LA, 62% in New York and 77% in Miami.”

  10. Sources • NAR 2013 CRE Outlook • REIS • CNNMoney.com • Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

More Related