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PEAK OIL AND THE FATE OF HUMANITY Chapter 2 –The Important Question: When Will Oil Production Peak? Robert Bériault

PEAK OIL AND THE FATE OF HUMANITY Chapter 2 –The Important Question: When Will Oil Production Peak? Robert Bériault. Wow! I can see that this stuff is really indispensable! Where does it come from?.

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PEAK OIL AND THE FATE OF HUMANITY Chapter 2 –The Important Question: When Will Oil Production Peak? Robert Bériault

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  1. PEAK OIL AND THE FATE OF HUMANITY Chapter 2 –The Important Question: When Will Oil Production Peak? Robert Bériault

  2. Wow! I can see that this stuff is really indispensable! Where does it come from?

  3. Oil originates from the decomposition of microorganisms that got buried under geologic formations in the sea millions of years ago. In some cases the sea retreated, which explains why oil is also found on land. home.att.net/ ~cat6a/fuels-IV.htm.

  4. You mean that it’s not continuously being made?

  5. That’s right. Mother Nature took millions of years to generate the oil. She made it once.She won’t be making a second batch.

  6. Well, how much oil do you have down there?

  7. Before the first oil well was dug in Pennsylvania in 1859 Mother Nature had made about two trillion barrels of oil and scattered it unevenly around the world.By 2004 we’ve used up about 0.9 trillion. In other words we’re near the half-way point. “Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage”, Kenneth S. Deffeyes

  8. So when do you figure you’ll run out?

  9. An oil well isn’t like a car’s gas tank. • With a car you can drive at any speed and you run out of gas all of a sudden. • That’s because your tank is a hollow cavity. The gasoline fills the bottom of the tank and there’s nothing preventing it from being pumped out.

  10. Click But an oil well isn’t a hollow cavity. • It’s a large deposit of stones or sandstone sandwiched between two layers of impervious rock. The hollow spaces between the stones or sand are filled with thick and viscous oil. • A pipe is lowered into the mixture of oil and stones or sand and the oil is slowly pumped up. It takes time for oil to ooze from zones of high concentration to the zone of low concentration near the pipe.

  11. In order to extract the oil from an oil field, a large number of wells are drilled.

  12. With a car you can simply step on the accelerator to increase the flow rate of gasoline. If you try to pump the contents of an oil field too fast, you can permanently impede its ability to produce oil in the future.

  13. An oil field empties rapidly at thestart and yields lots of oil. An oil field yields its contents more and more slowly over the years, something like this. Then the flow slows down gradually. Towards the end the flow eases to a trickle.

  14. When you plot the production of an aggregate of oil fields you get roughly what is called a bell curve Top of the curve Mid point 1st half 2nd half

  15. Click So to answer your question, we will never actually run out. There will always be oil left in some nook or cranny where it will be uneconomical to extract.

  16. Well, what’s the worry then? So what’s the problem then?

  17. The problem is that we will soon reach the point where we can’t pump out enough to keep up with demand.

  18. …and from then on, oil production will decline year after year… …that’s what petroleum experts refer to as the oil peak or peak oil. Remember that we’ve used up almost half of the world’s oil. When we reach the half-way point on a bell curve, we embark upon the decline. http://www.oilcrisis.com/

  19. When will that be? Oh gee! When will that be?

  20. We don’t know for sure. But there are seven pieces of evidence that lead us to believe that the oil peak might come soon.

  21. Evidence 1.

  22. The Hubbert Peak To forecast oil peak for the whole world, petroleum experts used a method developed by oil geologist Dr.M. King Hubbert

  23. The Hubbert Peak In 1956 Hubbert, using mathematical models, predicted that the US lower 48 states would peak in 1970 http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/

  24. The Hubbert Peak At that time the US was the world’s largest petroleum producer! He was laughed at…

  25. The Hubbert Peak But it turned out he was right!!!

  26. And now oil geologists think we’re close to the Hubbert Peak for the world… We’ve used up almost half of the world’s oil. http://www.oilcrisis.com/

  27. Evidence 2.

  28. Before looking at predictions Before looking at predictions for the whole world, lets consider a logical condition…

  29. If you want to extract (produce) oil, you’ve got to find (discover) it first, right?

  30. Oil discoveries in the US peaked- then 40 years later production peaked The US lower 48 states Adapted from Collin Campbell, University of Clausthal Conference, Dec 2000

  31. If the world follows the US pattern: …theworld would peak soon Adapted from: Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist

  32. It’s inevitable that sooner or later the peak of discoveries will be followed by a peak in production.

  33. Evidence 3.

  34. There Are No More Giant Oil Fields to Be Discovered • In spite of advanced exploration technology we are finding smaller and smaller oil fields

  35. Hold it! What do you mean by a giant oil field

  36. Any field that has more than 500 million barrels is deemed to be a giant. Prudhoe Bay production plant, pipelines, roads, flaring www.arcticgems.org

  37. This chart of giant oil field discoveries proves the point, doesn’t it? Since 2003 no giant fields have been found Simmons Company International

  38. We’re consuming 4 barrels… …for each barrel of oil that is being discovered “The Party’s Over”, Richard Heinberg

  39. Yeah! • If you take $4 out of your bank account for every $1 you put in, how long will it take before the creditors come after you?

  40. Evidence 4.

  41. Energy ReturnOn Energy Invested (EROEI) It refers to the ratio of: The amount of energy spent on getting the fuel: exploration, drilling, pumping, transportation and refining The amount of energy in the fuel: Either gasoline, diesel, kerosene, etc. AND “The Party’s Over”, Richard Heinberg

  42. Energy Return On Energy Invested is diminishing as we resort to going after the hard-to-get oil: • Before 1950 it was about 100 to 1 • In the 1970s it was down to 30 to 1 • Now (2005) it’s about 10 to 1 • The Tar Sands have an EROEI of about 4 to 1 “The Party’s Over”, Richard Heinberg

  43. A dropping EROEI is a sure sign of a coming decline

  44. Evidence 5.

  45. We have to drill deeper – up to three miles deep! It’s Getting a Lot More Expensive to Produce Oil • We’re exploring the far corners of the Earth to find it Adapted from “The Party’s Over”

  46. Exploration doesn’t pay anymore In 2003 oil companies spent $8 billion on exploration and discovered $4 billion in new reserves.* Since 2000, the cost of finding and developing new sources of oil has risen about 15% annually. * Thomas Homer Dixon and Julio Friedmann, N.Y. Times, 25 Mar 2005 ** John S. Herold consulting firm

  47. Evidence 6.

  48. There’s no more spare capacity in the world supply Spare capacity = how much extra oil can be produced within 30 days notice and maintained for 90 days Adapted from “The Oil Age is Over”, Matt Savinar

  49. Turning the valve further open doesn’t yield more oil.

  50. Evidence 7.

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