In the name of God, the Compassionate, the merciful

1. In the name of God,the Compassionate, the merciful The Role of drought monitoring & management in improving NAPs implementation West Asia Hossein Badripour Forest, Range and Watershed management Organization, Tehran, I.R.Iran badripour@yahoo.com

2. I.R.Iran at a glance: • Area: 1,648,195 km2 • 28 provinces (293 cities) • Population: 60,055,488 (50.81% men and 49.18% women) year 1996 • Number of families: 12,398,235 • Urban: 64% • Rural: 36% • Mean altitude: 1,200 m ( Caspian sea -28 m & Mount Damavand 5,677m)

3. Climate: • Locates in world arid zone. • 65% of the country is arid and hyper arid zone • 85% of the country is semi arid, arid and hyper arid zone

4. Land Resources: • Rangelands:90 mh (55%); • Forests: 12.4 m.h ( 7.4%); • Deserts: 34 m.h (20%) • Settlements, infrastructures, water bodies: 10.1 m.h • 33 million hectares have average to good capacity for cultivation while: • Just 18.5 million hectares are cultivated. • 8.5 million hectares are irrigated (irrigated farming 5.2 mh and irrigated gardens 1.1 mh and irrigated fallows 2.2 mh) • 10 million hectares rainfed

5. Farmings: • From 10 m.h annual crops (in 2000), some 7 m.h or 68% was cereal cultivation. 54% irrigated;46% rainfed; • Cereal production was 28.76% of annual crops; • Wheat , barley and rice the most common, respectively producing 62.87%,15.32% and 13.11% of the cereals; • Wheat is cultivated on 72.75% of cereal farms

6. Rainfall • Mean rainfall: 246mm • 13% country less than 100 mm • Some places receive 1,000 to 2,000 m • Total water: 413 billion cubic meter • 6 main watersheds, namely: The Caspian Sea, the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, Urumieh Lake, the central Plateau, Eastern border region and Ghare-Ghoom .

7. Distribution of Rainfall in Iran As you can see the percentage covering the range between 100-250mm is the highest In the country

8. Variation of Mean Annual Rainfall

9. Degraded area 1951-91

10. Drought: • Multi-faceted concept • Needs precise and objective definition. • Water shortages • Is an inevitable part of normal climate fluctuation and should be considered as a recurring environmental feature which must be included in planning

11. Drought aspects: • Meteorological • Hydrological • Environmental • Agricultural • Socio-economic

12. Frequency of climatological drought occurrence ( no regard to the severity) Every 2.5 years or 4 years out of 10,

13. Climatological Droughts in a 10 -years period Probability of drought occurrence is 40% year 1Mild drought: year 1 Moderate drought: Severe drought:1year 1 year:droughtVery severe

14. جدول 10 - فراوانی وقوع خشکسالی های شدیددراستانهای کشور در دهه 1370-80 جدول 10 - فراوانی وقوع خشکسالی های شدیددراستانهای کشور در دهه 1370-80 جدول 10 - فراوانی وقوع خشکسالی های شدیددراستانهای کشور در دهه 1370-80 Drought impacts • Meteorological • Agricultural • hydrological • Economic • Social • Environmental Classification of impacts Indirect and direct impacts Long term - short term impacts social and economic impacts At macro level On macro variables On sectors and sub-sectors Other economic impacts Community level At micro level

15. -Vegetation changes in 1995-6 and 2001-2

16. Relation between Drought, Poverty and land degradation Poverty Drought poverty Land degradation

17. Measuring Drought • Remote sensing • NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) • VCI (Vegetation Condition index) • Prediction 1980’s • Composite Indices • Crop moisture index • Palmer index • Keetch index Better Understanding of variability Improved Data availability 1960’s Single data - Precipitation - Temperature - Stream flow 1900’s

18. The indices used by USDA: • Palmer Drought Severity Index • Crop Moisture Index • Standardized Precipitation Index • Percent of normal rainfall • Daily stream flow • Snow pack • Soil moisture • Daily soil moisture anomaly • Vegetation and Temperature Condition Index • Stream flow forecasts

19. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Based entirely on rainfall data. Flexible – applies to various durations. Measures rainfall deficiency in a common currency – standard deviation units. Could be used to compare different regions. Simple and popular. Drought Indices Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) Complex function of rainfall and evaporation. Better for large areas of uniform topography. Deciles Based entirely on rainfall data. Level of dryness is expressed in scores related to cumulative statistical distribution of rainfall. Based on rainfall. Most straightforward.Region-specific. Percent of normal Many more exist. New indices continue to emerge.

20. Relation of time and amount of forage yield on rangeland

21. Comparison of drought maps based on SPI and RDI in 1997-8 Spatial pattern of Deciles in 1997-8 Spatial pattern of SPI in 1997-8

22. How to manage drought? • Preparedness (Before drought outbreaks); • Crisis management (during drought); • Relief assistance (After drought).

23. A 10-Step Process[1 • 1 Appoint a Drought Task Force • 2 State the Purpose and Objectives of the Drought Plan; • 3 Seek Stakeholder Participation and Resolve Conflict; • 4 Inventory Resources and Identify Groups at Risk; • 5 Develop Organizational Structure and Prepare Drought Plan; • 6 Integrate Science and Policy, Close Institutional Gaps; • 7 Publicize the Proposed Plan, Solicit Reaction; • 8 Implement the Plan; • 9 Develop Education Programs; • 10 Post-Drought Evaluation • [1]Donald A. Wilhite;Michael J. Hayes; Cody Knutson; Kelly Helm Smith

24. The Cycle of Disaster Management (Source : Dr. Donald Wilhite, NDMC, University of Nebraska – Lincoln)

25. Components of Drought for Risk Management Vulnerability Risk Hazard x = (social factors) (natural event) Meteorological drought • Population growth • - Technology change • - Land use practices • - Environment degradation • - Water use trends • - Government policies • - Public awareness

26. Risk Management Approach Control Loss prevention Loss reduction Risk retention Analysis Duration Frequency Severity Potential loss CONTINUOUS IN-DEPTH INVESTIGATION OF RISKS AND POSSIBLE MEASURES TO REDUCE LOSSES AND VULNERABILITY Risk transfer Insurance Non-insurance Identification Identify risk Quantify risk Monitoring

27. Drought Monitoring based on Network System of Stations By examining many of the drought indices based on network system of stations, we can get a grasp on the possibility of encroaching drought conditions. By examining such drought-related scales as the Percent of Normal, SPI, Crop Moisture Index, Surface Water Supply Index, and the Drought Monitor, an idea of present conditions and forecasts are at our fingertips.

29. DROUGHT MONITORING Drought monitoring can . . . • Improve detection of drought onset / termination and early warning • Provide information for anticipating drought impacts and be better prepared to face it • improve self reliance and public awareness

30. Monitoring with satellites: • Satellite imageryis increasingly applying inmonitoring drought conditionsthrough vegetation indices and other approaches

31. Assessment of Vegetation Cover Condition Using Remote Sensing • Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) • Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) • Temprature Conditon Index (TCI) • Standardized Vegetation Index (SVI) • Temperature-Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) • Relative Greenness (RG) • Vegetation Temperature Condition Index (VTCI) • Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) • NDVI Deviation of long-term mean (DEV) • Ratio Vegetation Index (RVI) • Ratio Drought Index (RDI) • Rapid Indicator of the Drought (RID) • Vegetation-Temperature Index (VTI) • Difference Vegetation Index (DVI) • Transformed Normalized Vegetation Index (TNDVI) • Perpendicular Vegetation Index (PVI)

32. Integrated Drought/Climate Monitoring. It is critical that an integrated approach to climate monitoring be employed to obtain a comprehensive assessment of the status of climate and water supply. Too often, drought severity is expressed only in terms of precipitation departures from normal, neglecting information about soil moisture, reservoir and ground water levels, stream flow, snow pack, and vegetation health. Seasonal climate forecasts may also provide valuable information regarding whether conditions are likely to improve or deteriorate in the coming months. Use of multiple climate indices and parameters provides monitoring specialists with an assortment of tools, each with its own strengths and weaknesses. Understanding these strengths and weaknesses will provide a scientific basis for accepting or rejecting indicators. By comparing multiple drought indicators, the relationships between these indices/tools will be better understood.

33. Monitoring Unit • Adopt a workable definition of drought which should be defined by a multi-disciplinary ad-hoc working group. The group may need to adopt more than one definition of drought in identifying impacts in various economic, social, and environmental sectors because no single definition of drought applies in all cases. For example for the irrigated farming, the definition and indices differ from those which can be used for rainfed regions. The definition is important because it can be used to phase in and phase out levels of local or provincial, and national actions in response to drought

34. Monitoring Unit • Develop a data collecting system for compiling historic and real-time weather, streamflow, groundwater, reservoir and soil information from various national and provincial agencies such as MOE, IRIMO. The system can also include the local extension centers all over the country for providing information on the status of plant growth. • Inventory other data collection networks. In addition to MOE and IRIMO networks, other networks also exist and may provide critical information for a portion of a province or region.

35. The outcome of these indices + some other helpful ones: • Drought Monitoring System

36. The basic components of Drought plan: • Monitoring • Early warning • Impact assessment • Preparedness • Response • Recovery • Mitigation

37. Conclussion • When efficient drought monitoring and management system has been established, less people and environemnt would be vulnerable to drought. • Resilient environments is equal to IMPROVEMET OF UNCCD MANDATE.

38. National Strategy & action plan on Drought preparedness, Management and Mitigation The TCP/IRA/3003 (A) National strategy and Action plan on drought preparedness, Management and Mitigation in the agricultural Sector :

39. Thanks for your attention