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Future of Lake Wingra Meeting

Future of Lake Wingra Meeting. University of Wisconsin May 9, 2007. Welcome!. Steve Carpenter, Center for Limnology. Overview. Oonsie Biggs, Center for Limnology. Scenarios for the future of Lake Wingra. 9 May 2007. Future of Lake Wingra?. ?. Why think about the future?.

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Future of Lake Wingra Meeting

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  1. Future of Lake Wingra Meeting University of Wisconsin May 9, 2007

  2. Welcome! Steve Carpenter, Center for Limnology

  3. Overview Oonsie Biggs, Center for Limnology

  4. Scenarios for the future of Lake Wingra 9 May 2007

  5. Future of Lake Wingra? ?

  6. Why think about the future? Lake Wingra is a community resource FOLW is developing goals for the watershed in collaboration with the community Future changes in the greater Madison area and beyond will impact our ability to meet the goals for Lake Wingra

  7. 2035 FOLW strategies TODAY Zoo 955: Sketch future scenarios FOLW: Develop goals & strategies

  8. Scenario analysis • One approach to thinking about the future • Scenarios are not predictions! • Scenarios are plausible stories that expand our understanding of what the future might bring

  9. Scenarios approach Scenarios can be qualitative and/or quantitative Today Time

  10. Process 2 March Scenarios workshop with invited stakeholders to develop draft scenario storylines 9 May Presentation of scenarios to FOLW 3 Feb FOLW goals public meeting Early April Individual feedback interviews with stakeholders 7 Feb Systems analysis brainstorming session March Synthesis of scenario workshop & drafting of 4 selected storylines Late April Scenario revisions & drafting of final report

  11. Goals for Lake Wingra Jim Lorman and Anne Forbes Friends of Lake Wingra Jim Lorman and Anne Forbes

  12. Scope of the Project Matt Van de Bogert, Center for Limnology

  13. System AnalysisOverview Economic Social Political Ecological Lake Wingra

  14. Overview of systems analysis workshop • Goals included: • Define the system, its components, and the connections between them

  15. Overview of systems analysis workshop • Goals included: • Define the time horizon and frequency of projection

  16. Overview of systems analysis workshop • Goals included: • Identify key inputs and drivers to the system

  17. City of Madison…The Social-Ecological System People: individuals, households, families, taxpayers, voters Physical, chemical, biological characteristics: water clarity, bacteria, algae, nutrients, macrophytes, fish community, migratory birds, etc. User groups: anglers, swimmers, boaters, young explorers, bikers, hikers, skiers recreation, resource use, ecosystem services voting, lobbying Lake Wingra Organizations: neighborhoods, fishing or boating clubs, Friends of Lake Wingra, others Shore and adjacent wetlands Hydrology Surface-water runoff, phosphorus, salt, etc; groundwater depletion, recharge Businesses; investment; growth policies, incentives, regulations Watershed Land use: development, infilling, sprawl, construction Education Institutions: Edgewood, UW-Madison, UW-Arboretum. Infrastructure: roads, storm sewers, sanitary sewer, etc. Other lakes: Mendota, Monona City Government City of Madison

  18. City of Madison External components, drivers, and inputs of the system THE WORLD Climate change Key Uncertainties • Invasive species • Economy • Human health UNITED STATES Federal legislation National security U.S. economy National environmental awareness & practices Federal agencies (e.g., EPA) Uncontrollable (From the system level) STATE OF WISCONSIN • U.S. economy • National security • Climate change State legislation State economy State agencies (e.g., DNR) DANE COUNTY No Alternative Demographic changes L & W commission • Climate change Invasive species Transportation Technological innovations Human health; disease

  19. Current Condition of Lake Wingra Matt Diebel, Center for Limnology

  20. Lake Wingra in 2007

  21. Lake Wingra Watershed Vilas Park Edgewood Campus Lake Wingra Westgate Mall Odana Golf Course Arboretum

  22. Lake Wingra Watershed Lake Wingra

  23. Hydrology Groundwater Inflow Direct Precipitation Surface Runoff

  24. Pollutants Sediment increase 500% Phosphorus increase 1000% Chloride increase 1500%

  25. Poor Water Quality • Frequent algae blooms • Secchi depth 0.7 m

  26. Native plant communities remain but are threatened by invasive species

  27. Scenarios Overview Amy Kamarainen, Center for Limnology

  28. Big Green Brother Garden State Exotic Exchange C-CLEAR

  29. Big Green Brother Jennifer Schmitz, Center for Limnology

  30. 2010: City supports grassroots efforts with new tax incentives 2015: City and State support open space initiatives to the tune of $1 million

  31. 2022: “What was once viewed as an opportunity for grassroots initiatives is now seen as big government,” reflects resident. 2029: Shorter winters and ice accidents lead to new safety regulations

  32. 2029: Madison experiences eighth consecutive summer of below average rainfall 2033: County permits extraction of water from the Yahara lakes

  33. 2033 - City begins construction of multi-million dollar water park 2035 – Lake Wingra goals eclipsed by top community priorities

  34. Garden State David Zaks Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment

  35. 2012: Rain gardens and permeable blacktop used to recharge groundwater and reduce sediment loads

  36. 2016: Wisconsin Center for Green Technology built on site formerly known as the Arboretum

  37. 2020: Carp-a-thon mobilizes disparate community groups and effectively controls the Common carp population

  38. 2022: Population growth leads to loss of dark sky certification

  39. 2030: Wisconsin Center for Green Technology stock high-protein fish strain in Lake Wingra

  40. C-CLEAR Chris Uejio Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment

  41. Community Coalition for Lake Ecology and Recreation(C-CLEAR)

  42. 2015: “Success breeds success” • New individuals & organizations join Friends of Lake Wingra • “Friends” generate & leverage more resources • Pressure local government to improve water quality

  43. 2015-2025: “Gridlock” • Community change: Older, more culturally & geographically diverse • Violent conflict between anglers and fisher people • C-CLEAR positively broadens access, outreach & education

  44. 2015-2025: “Gridlock” (cont.) • Dane county population & power grows; gridlock over environmental policy ensues • Geographically broader coalition organizes across watershed; Yahara-CLEAR • Less effort focused locally on original goals

  45. 2025-2035: “Sustainable Organizing” • Fracture: members leave & resume working locally • Water quality steadily improved, but slower than members hoped • Uncertainty over the coalition’s future

  46. Exotic Exchange Brian Weidel, Center for Limnology

  47. BEFORE AFTER WATER CLARITY 2010… common carp virtually eliminated

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