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2013 – The Year in Review

2013 – The Year in Review. The Fleets - 2013. Type Western Built Eastern Built Total Turbojets 22,113 1,007 23,120 Turboprops 4,797 1,001 5,898 Business Jets 18,072.

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2013 – The Year in Review

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  1. 2013 – The Year in Review

  2. The Fleets - 2013 TypeWestern BuiltEastern BuiltTotal Turbojets 22,113 1,007 23,120 Turboprops 4,797 1,001 5,898 Business Jets 18,072 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service

  3. Accident Classifications Aircraft * Type: Turbojets, Turboprops, Piston, Helicopters * Size: Weight, number of seats * Use: Passenger, cargo, business, government * Western built or Eastern built How Measured * Per hours flown * Per departures * Per number of aircraft Classification * Hull Loss Accident * Total Loss Accident * Economic Loss Accident * Substantial Damage Accident * Fatal Accident * Major Accident

  4. Accident Classifications Aircraft * Type: Turbojets, Turboprops, Piston, Helicopters * Size: Weight, number of seats * Use: Commercial, business, government * Western built or Eastern built How Measured * Per hours flown * Per departures * Per number of aircraft Classification * Hull Loss Accident * Total Loss Accident * Economic Loss Accident * Substantial Damage Accident * Fatal Accident * Major Accident

  5. Accident Classifications Major Accident: An accident in which any of three conditions is met: 1. Aircraft destroyed, or 2. Multiple fatalities to occupants, or 3. One fatality and aircraft substantially damaged

  6. CFITLOCExcursion Major Accidents Commercial Jets 1 January 2012 to 31 December 2012 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service

  7. CFITLOCExcursion Major Accidents Commercial Jets 1 January 2013 to 28 October 2013 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service

  8. Commercial Jet Major Accidents 2000 through 2012 20 19 19 19 15 16 17 17 14 13 13 13 10 11 5 7 2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Eastern Built

  9. Major Accidents Business Jets 1 January 2013 to 28 October 2013 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service

  10. Business Jet Major Accidents 2000 through 2012 20 15 15 14 14 10.5 10 13 12 11 9 8 8 8 7 7 5 2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

  11. Business Jet Major Accident Rate 2000 through 2012 (Accidents per 1,000 Aircraft) 1.0 .75 8 Year Average: .67 .50 4 Year Average: .52 .25 2005 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

  12. Major Accidents Commercial Turboprops (> 14 seats) 1 January 2013 to 28 October 2013 Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service CFIT

  13. Major Accidents Commercial Turboprops (> 14 seats) 1 January 2013 to 28 October 2013 (cont.) Source: Ascend - A Flight Global Advisory Service CFIT

  14. Commercial Turboprop Major Accidents 2000 through 2012 40 39 35 30 33 31 25.9 (12 years) 31 25 29 21.4 (5 years) 24 24 20 22 23 21 21 20 20 15 17 10 5 2001 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Eastern Built

  15. Approach and Landing Major Accidents Commercial Jets 1 January 2013 through 28 October 2013

  16. Controlled Flight into Terrain Major AccidentsCommercial Jets1 January 2013 to 28 October 2013 Sources: Honeywell (Don Bateman), Ascend

  17. Over the last 7 years, 26 of 88 turboprop major accidents has been a CFIT– that’s 30%, or almost 1 of every 3 ! 5 Year Running Average

  18. Aircraft Upset Major Accidents Commercial Jets 1 January 2013 through 28 October 2013

  19. Aircraft Upset Major Accidents Commercial Jets 1999 through 2012 6 4 Number of Accidents

  20. Being Predictive In A Reactive World

  21. Being Predictive • Can we be predictive ? • Will it be successful in reducing risk ?

  22. Safety Basics Safety = Risk Management * Eliminate risk * Reduce risk * Acknowledge risk

  23. Managing Risk

  24. Risk Management • Risk = Probability X Severity • Everything in life has risk • Manage Risk by modifying P or S

  25. The Key to Risk Management # 1 Identify Hazards

  26. Being Efficient Want to reduce risk in the highest risk areas e.g. Prevent 1 accident in 10 years: good Prevent 10 accidents in 1 year: better

  27. Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT) Aviation Occurrence CategoriesFatal Accidents – Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 2003 Through 2012

  28. Reactive: Tending to react, characterized by reaction Proactive: Preparing for, intervening in, or controlling an expected occurrence or situation Predictive: Inference regarding a future event based on probability

  29. The Spectrum of Safety Fly-crash-fix-flyIdentify hazardsas they appear in accidents Utilize data from incidents and normal operations to identify trends and reduce risk before an accident happens Study past accidents and incidents to identify hazards and reduce risk Reactive Proactive Predictive Single Accident Data----------Consolidated Accident/Incident Data ------Accident/Incident/Operational Data Data Availability/Utilization

  30. Predicting • We can easily predict 90% of next year’s accidents - > 50% will be approach and landing - Half of those will be runway excursions - There will be at least 2 Jet and 4 Turboprop CFIT accidents - There will be 1 or 2 upset aircraft

  31. Predicting “Black swan” events - TWA-800 - BA-038 - QF-32

  32. Being Predictive • Can we be predictive ?

  33. Being Predictive • Can we be predictive ? YES

  34. Fatalities by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT) Aviation Occurrence CategoriesFatal Accidents – Worldwide Commercial Jet Fleet – 2003 Through 2012

  35. Safety Fatality Data - Circa 1992 Collision with terrain Approach and landing Loss of control Maintenance ATC systems Postcrash survival Inflight fire/smoke Engine failures Airport ground control Nonconfiguration takeoffs Windshear Deicing/anti-icing Rejected takeoff 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

  36. Trending • Can detect trends and future hazards * Systems * Locations * Procedures

  37. ASAP and FOQA Analysis of OAK Arrivals Receiving TAWS Alerts

  38. TCAS Hotspot Snap Shot

  39. Being Predictive • Will it be successful in reducing risk ?

  40. Predictive Challenge - Being able to get the support of the decision makers

  41. Keys to Predictive Success 1. Data to make the risk management case 2. Decision maker support

  42. Keys to Predictive Success A Change of Paradigm Outcome Based Event Based

  43. The Spectrum of Safety Fly-crash-fix-flyIdentify hazardsas they appear in accidents Utilize data from incidents and normal operations to identify trends and reduce risk before an accident happens Study past accidents and incidents to identify hazards and reduce risk Reactive Proactive Predictive Single Accident Data----------Consolidated Accident/Incident Data ------Accident/Incident/Operational Data Data Availability/Utilization Negative OutcomeNegative Outcome(s) Events

  44. Challenges to beingsuccessful in predicting X • Data X • Technology to utilize data • Support of a reactive system TBA

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