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Toward a Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises

Toward a Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises. Oliver Markley, PhD oliver@olivermarkley.com Ver 2.0, August, 2011. Outline. Framing and communicating wild-cards (aka STEEP Surprises) A long-range outlook on critical risks and disruptive change

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Toward a Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises

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  1. Toward a Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises Oliver Markley, PhD oliver@olivermarkley.com Ver 2.0, August, 2011 OliverMarkley.com

  2. Outline • Framing and communicating wild-cards (aka STEEP Surprises) • A long-range outlook on critical risks and disruptive change • The World Economic Forum (WEF) and Risk Resilience Network (RRN) reports and activities • Three TYPE II STEEP Surprise themes not considered by WEF/RRN • Resilience as a key capacity • Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises Appendix: The original journal article clearinghouse proposal OliverMarkley.com

  3. Traditional Definition of a Wild Card(aka “STEEP Surprise) “Wild Card” – a low probability event that would have a huge impact if it were to occur Call this a Type I Wild Card

  4. New Definition From My NewResearch on Disruptive Change Type II Wild Card – a high probability event (as seen by someone with relevant expertise) that has low credibility (for most other observers)

  5. Additional Types of Wild-Cards Useful for Monitoring and Strategy • Type I – Low Probability High Credibility • Type II – High Probability Low Credibility • Type III – High Probability Disputed Credibility • Type IV – High Probability Agreed Upon Credibility

  6. “Risky Communication” The Ostrich Effect OliverMarkley.com

  7. On the Social Psychology of Communicating Future Risks See: “Discounting of frightening socio-ecological crises: An "Ostrich Effect?” (“Research and Action Toward the Upside of Down,” p157, http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/15-3/E01.pdf) OliverMarkley.com

  8. To Successfully Communicate Future Risks Not Being Handled by Official Leaders • Provide one or more promising solutions, or approaches through which solutions might be found • Don’t question leadership competence or integrity • Talk about how nothing is certain, open minded inquiry is always needed; emphasize provisional “if-then” thinking • Use scenarios that look backward from a future time in which the risk was/was not mitigated successfully.

  9. My Publications on These Topics • “A New Methodology for Anticipating STEEP Surprises,” Technology Forecasting & Social Change (2011) • “Research and Action Toward the Upside of Down,” Journal of Futures Studies (2011) • “Living Resiliently in a Wild-Card World,” Noetic Now (2011) All can be downloaded from: http://www.imaginalvisioning.com/anticipating-disruptive-surprises-with-futures-research/ OliverMarkley.com

  10. Three Promising Applications of the New STEEP Surprise/Wild Card Typology • Conventional environmental scanning and monitoring of Type II items as they gain credibility in society (or not) • Strategic guidance for citizen activist mobilization on Type II items • A Citizens Clearinghouse for systematic sharing of proactive intelligence on Type II items by futurists, investigative journalists, citizen activist leaders, etc. OliverMarkley.com

  11. 1. Conventional Environmental Scanning and Monitoring Source: Information and the Future: A Handbook of Sources and Strategies (Wygant & Markley,1988); based on “How to anticipate public-policy changes,” (Molitor, S.A.M. Advanced Management Journal, 1977).

  12. 2. Citizen Activist Strategizing For Mobilization Source: Created by Tom Atlee for Democracy Now: The MAP Model for Organizing Social Movements, by Bill Moyer, et al (2001)

  13. 3. A Citizens Clearinghouse for Systematic Sharing of Proactive Intelligence Graphic source: ShapingTomorrow.com OliverMarkley.com

  14. Outline • Framing and communicating wild-cards (aka STEEP Surprises) • A long-range outlook on critical risks and disruptive change • The World Economic Forum (WEF) and Risk Resilience Network (RRN) reports and activities • Three TYPE II STEEP Surprise themes not considered by WEF/RRN • Resilience as a key capacity • Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises Appendix: The original journal article clearinghouse proposal OliverMarkley.com

  15. 2. a. World Economic Forum/Risk Resilience Network Reports and Activities http://www.weforum.org/globalrisks2011 OliverMarkley.com

  16. WEF Now Moving Beyond Risk To Dynamic Resilience • From Risk to Opportunity: Building a Response to the New Reality (January, 2011) http://outlook.weforum.org/ • An initiative of WEF’s new Risk Resilience Network OliverMarkley.com

  17. The World Economic Forum’s New Risk Resilience Network (RRN)www.weforum.org/rrn • Introduced at the December, 2010 WEF Davos Conference • Mission: • To create a more resilient world by identifying and mitigating complex and interconnected global risks while identifying emerging opportunities • By means of public/private collaboration among networked communities of C-Level executives, Chief Risk Officers, and leading professionals OliverMarkley.com

  18. “About” the Risk Resilience Network • Online video intro to RNN by WEF COO, Kevin Steinberg at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-qUgodop7Q • From Risk to Opportunity: Building a Response to the New Reality (January, 2011) http://outlook.weforum.org/ • Global Risks Meeting Report (April 2011 ) http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-meeting-report-2011/ OliverMarkley.com

  19. 37 Global Risks in Five STEEP Domains(10 year time horizon) Identified by WEF/RRN Source: Global Risks 2011http://www.weforum.org/globalrisks2011 OliverMarkley.com

  20. All Risks Assessed Re: Estimated Probability and Magnitude of Impact OliverMarkley.com

  21. The Six Highest Rated Risks OliverMarkley.com

  22. Developed Risk InterconnectionsCan Be Explored Interactively Online

  23. Three Highest Rated Clusters of Risk(Detailed on p 14-35 of the report) Macro-economic Imbalances nexus Illegal economy nexus Water-food-energy nexus OliverMarkley.com

  24. Outline • Framing and communicating wild-cards (aka STEEP Surprises) • A ten-year outlook on critical risks and disruptive change • The World Economic Forum (WEF) and Risk Resilience Network (RRN) reports and activities • Three TYPE II STEEP Surprise themes not considered by WEF/RRN • Resilience as a key capacity for times that are disruption-prone and uncertain • Cooperative Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises OliverMarkley.com

  25. 2.b. Three “Type II STEEP Surprise” Themes Not Considered by WEF/RRN • Technocultural Optimism—Multiple scientific, technological and humanistic breakthroughs cascading toward new possibilities: (a) Massively scalable biotechnologies leading to sustainable bioenergy; b) Integrative technologies leading to “The Singularity“ and/or “Transhumanism”) • Technocultural Transformism—Multiple system disruptions cascading toward socioeconomic disintegration and hopefully reform-based recovery: Insights from a) Panarchy Theory’s Cycle of Adaptation; b) TheUpside of Down; and c) Other sources) • Prophetic Transformism—Multiple impulses toward ascension of consciousness, I.e.., the 2012 meme: a) Secular viewpoints; b) A traditional Christian viewpoint; and c) Esoteric viewpoints. OliverMarkley.com

  26. 1. a) Biotechnology Breakthroughs for Massively Scalable Bioenergy • “A Strategy for American Innovation: Securing Our Economic Growth and Prosperity” (National Economic Council, Council of Economic Advisers, and Office of Science and Technology Policy, 2011) http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/uploads/InnovationStrategy.pdf • “Biotechnology: Toward a sustainable future” (Biomechanism.com, 2011) http://biomechanism.com/about/ • Renewable biological systems for alternative sustainable energy production (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Kazuhisa Miyamoto. Ed., 1997) http://www.fao.org/docrep/w7241e/w7241e06.htm • “Photosynthesis or photovoltaics: which is better? (Robert E. Blankenship, et al, 2011). Summarized at ”http://www.rdmag.com/News/2011/05/Energy-Solar-Photosynthesis-or-photovoltaics-which-is-better/ OliverMarkley.com

  27. 1. b) Integrative Technologies Leading “The Singularity“ and/or “Transhumanism” • Wikipedia on Singularity-related topics http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity • The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology (Ray Kurzweil, 2006)  • Singularity University home page http://singularityu.org/ • Wikipedia on Transhumanism http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transhumanism • Ending Aging: The Rejuvenation Breakthroughs That Could Reverse Human Aging in Our Lifetime (Aubrey D. N. J. De Grey, 2007) • More Than Human: Embracing the Promise of Biological Enhancement (Ramez Naam, 2005) • Transhumanist Society home page http://www.aleph.se/Trans/Cultural/Society/index.html OliverMarkley.com

  28. 2. a) Panarchy & The Cycle of Adaptation: A “New Paradigm” Socio-Ecological Theory • Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems (Gunderson & Holling, 2001) • The Resilience Alliance www.resalliance.org/ OliverMarkley.com

  29. The Cycle of Adaptationfrom Panarchy Theory Source: Panarchy OliverMarkley.com

  30. Simplified Cycle of Adaptationfrom Panarchy Theory OliverMarkley.com

  31. Nested Cross-Scale Interactions Source: Resilience and regions: building understanding of the metaphor” (Rolf Pendall, et al, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, (2009) http://www.ipg.vt.edu/resilience/docs/PendallR_ResilienceandRegions_v1.pdf OliverMarkley.com

  32. 2. b) TheUpside of DownBy Thomas Homer-Dixon (2006) Includes a good summary of Panarchy Theory, the Cycle of Adaptation, and plausible cascading of system disintegration followed by cultural reformation. OliverMarkley.com

  33. Homer-Dixon Quoting C.S. “Buzz” Holling “…for a variety of well-established natural systems principles, [Holling] thinks that the world is reaching a stage of vulnerability that could trigger a rare and major ‘pulse' of social transformation. Humankind has experienced only three or four such pulses during its entire evolution, including the transition from hunter-gatherer communities to agricultural settlement, the industrial revolution, and the recent global communications revolution. Today another pulse is about to begin.” Source: http://www.worldwatch.org/node/6008 OliverMarkley.com

  34. 2. c) Other Sources:A Type II “Tipping Point” Toward Epochal Change Source: “Research and Action toward the Upside of Down” (Markley, 2011) http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/15-3/E01.pdf OliverMarkley.com

  35. After the Tipping Point: The “Great Bifurcation” Source: “The collapse and transformation of our world“ (Taylor & Taylor, 2007) http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/11-3/A02.pdf OliverMarkley.com

  36. Will this be the Next Crisis to Hit? (2005) (2010) OliverMarkley.com After they predicted (in America’s Bubble Economy),the subprime loan meltdown two years in advance, David Wiedemer and colleagues (in Aftershock), now predict another fiscal meltdown within three years.

  37. A Short Video that Clarifies OliverMarkley.com 4 min. of key clips from the 150 min., 3-partBBC documentary“The Love of Money”Posted athttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T1M7z90Azps

  38. Paraphrasing Alan Greenspan’s Comments in The Love of Money Clip • “The roots of this crisis are global and geopolitical. … If the subprime loan crisis had not been the trigger, it would have been something else.” • “There will be more such crises…unless human nature changes.” OliverMarkley.com

  39. Are We Doing Futures Research on the Titanic? OliverMarkley.com

  40. Recent Informed Views Worth Considering • “Prophets of Doom” (90 min. documentary, History Channel, 2011) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gi53kq4vzY • “Are we entering a period of concatenated global crises?” (Daniel Biggs, et al, Ecology and Society, 2011) http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol16/iss2/art27/ • “Patterns of social unrest: Complexity, conflict, and catastrophe (John L. Casti, Album/Der Standard, 2011) http://www.scribd.com/doc/57213305/Patterns-of-Social-Unrest-Complexity-Conflict-and-Catastrophe • “Complexity and collapse: Empires on the edge of chaos” (Niall Ferguson, Foreign Affairs, 2010) www.informationclearinghouse.info/article24874.htm • “Overcoming systemic roadblocks to sustainability: The evolutionary redesign of worldviews, institutions, and technologies (Rachel Beddoe, et al, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010)http://www.pnas.org/content/106/8/2483 ) • “A civilizational tipping point (Lester R. Brown, 2009) www.earth-policy.org/index.php?/book_bytes/2008/pb3ch01_ss5 OliverMarkley.com

  41. 3. The 2012 Meme • Secular Viewpoints • WorldShift 2012: Making Green Business, New Politics & Higher Consciousness Work Together (Ervin Laszlo, 2009) • A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change (John Petersen, 2008) • Traditional Christian Viewpoint • Surprised by Hope: Rethinking Heaven, the Resurrection, and the Mission of the Church (N.T. Wright, 2008) • Esoteric Viewpoints • Make the World Go Away: The Gift of 2012 (Ruth Miller, 2011) • Earth Changes and 2012: Messages from the Founders (Sal Rachele, 2008) OliverMarkley.com

  42. Outline • Framing and communicating wild-cards (aka STEEP Surprises) • A long-range outlook on critical risks and disruptive change • The World Economic Forum (WEF) and Risk Resilience Network (RRN) reports and activities • Three TYPE II STEEP Surprise themes not considered by WEF/RRN • Resilience as a key capacity • Clearinghouse on STEEP Surprises Appendix: The original journal article clearinghouse proposal OliverMarkley.com

  43. Summary: Why Resilience Is Now a Critical Need Why Resilience Now • Profusion of STEEP Risks and forecasts of “Perfect Storm” of cascading disruption • Uncertainty about which will hit first and when, but danger signs increasing ominously • Proactive resilience improvement is the one positive thing to do regardless of which type of disruption will hit first or which alternative future will emerge OliverMarkley.com

  44. What is Resilience? Is this Resilience in Action? (p.s. add “debt” to his load) OliverMarkley.com

  45. From Webster’s Online Dictionary Resilience: An ability to recover from or adjust easily to misfortune or change OliverMarkley.com

  46. Now what? For example… OliverMarkley.com

  47. Reactively Adaptive Resilience…Recovery back to “normal” OliverMarkley.com

  48. Transformatively Emergent Resilience…Recovery to a Better “New Normal” Cartoon source: by Steven Wright, in Engaging Emergence: Turning Upheaval into Opportunity, by Peggy Holman (2010) OliverMarkley.com

  49. Proactively Dynamic Resilience… Preparing for Multiple Risks Source: World Economic Foundation OliverMarkley.com

  50. As Defined by the WEF/Risk Resilience Network Dynamic Resilience: • Is forward looking and proactive • Forecasts alternative risk scenarios • Monitors current trends and defines “trigger points” for active mitigation • Involves “whole systems,” both before and after a risk has materialized OliverMarkley.com

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