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Global NEWS Model

Global NEWS Model. N utrient E x port from W ater S heds. At river mouths, predicts annual average export of:. Dissolved Particulate Inorganic Organic N DIN DON PN P DIP DOP PP C DIC * DOC POC Si DSi. * DIC in prep.

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Global NEWS Model

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  1. Global NEWS Model NutrientExport from WaterSheds At river mouths, predicts annual average export of: Dissolved Particulate Inorganic Organic N DIN DON PN PDIP DOP PP C DIC* DOC POC SiDSi * DIC in prep. Original models and scenario applications published in 2 special issues of Global Biogeochemical Cycles (>25 papers)

  2. Global NEWSModel Nutrient Sources Hydrology & Physical Factors In-River N, P, Si Removal Natural N2-Fixation P Weathering Water Runoff Precip. Intensity Land-use Slope Lithology Rivers & Reservoir Consumptive Water Use Anthropogenic Non-Point Fertilizer (by crop type) N2-fixation - crops Manure (by animal species) Atmos. Dep. N Point Sewage(pop.; treatment level) Nutrient Loading to Coastal Waters Seitzinger et al. 2005, Mayorga et al. 2010 Seitzinger et al. 2010

  3. Global NEWS modeling Environment (GNE)(Python code that runs NEWS models) “Raw”, Heterogeneous GIS Source files Pre-processed, homogenized GIS Input files Diffuse sources Diffuse sources Basin-scale Inputs tables Model outputs Manual steps, Ad-hoc automation Global NEWS model(s) Papers, Glory, $$$$ Direct Global NEWS inputs Global NEWS outputs Point sources Point sources GNE Hydrology Hydrology Complicated Variables other than basin means/sums. e.g. dam retention, FQrem, lithology class

  4. Comparison of Model Predicted vs Measured River Transport R2=0.88 Susquehanna Ganges Ganges Rhine Modeled DIN export (kg N basin-1 yr-1) Modeled DOC yield (kg C km-2 yr-1) Gambia Dnepr Colorado Measured DOC yield (kg C km-2 yr-1) Measured DIN export (kg N basin-1 yr-1)

  5. Regional variations in watershed yields for all forms • Different spatial patterns for N and P and forms (due to differences in controlling factors) • Difference in dominant forms between N and P kg P/km2/yr kg N/km2/yr > 1220 > 2000 880 500 100 570 50 350 20 190 110 10 70 5 2 40 15 1 0 0 Nitrogen Phosphorus Disolved Inorganic N Disolved Inorganic P Dissolved Organic N Dissolved Organic P Particulate N Particulate P

  6. Dominant DIN Sources (Seitzinger & Harrison, 2008)

  7. Millennium Assessment Scenarios Global Regional Reactive OS GO Proactive TG AM

  8. Integrated Development Scenarios Policy Options & Costs Population and Climate NutrientSources from Food and Energy Nutrient Export at River Mouth

  9. kg N/km2/yr > 250 80 40 10 0 -10 -40 -80 < -250 DIN yields (kg N/km2/yr)2030 scenarios vs mean 2030 2030 Average DIN Yield Average Change 2000-2030 N yield change See legend on slide 1 Global Orchestration Techno-garden Order from Strength Adapting Mosaic Run 4, 5/22/08 (Seitzinger et al., 2010, Global Biogeochemical Cycles)

  10. NEWS-Predicted DIP Yield(kg P / km2 / yr) NEWS-DIP-2005 NEWS-DIP-HD-2010 (Harrison et al., 2010; GBC)

  11. NEWS-DIN recently applied to CA sub-watersheds (Goodwin et al., Submitted)

  12. Acknowlegements and for more details Mayorga et al. 2010 Model development, Envir. Modelling & Software Global Biogeochemical Cycles 2010 - Special section Seitzinger et al. overview Bouwman et al. agriculture Van Drecht et al. urban wastewater Feketeet al. hydrology Harrison et al. increased spatial resolution Yan et al. Changjiang river VanderStruijk & Kroeze South America Yasin et al. Africa Garnier et al. river nutrient export ratios Billen et al. watershedauto-/heterotrophy

  13. No improved sanitation Improved sanitation, but not connected to sewer Removed via sewage treatment Discharged to surface waters Human Emissions Human emission 100% Rural No No Urban Yes Yes Yes No Access to improved sanitation? Connection to sewer system? Removed Via Wastewater treatment? Population Van Drecht et al. Global Biogeochem. Cycles (2003), Van Drecht et al., (2010) Global Biogeochem. Cycles

  14. Outputs -crop/grass N export Incl. Fodder crops Excl. residue management -Ammonia volatilization Outputs -crop/grass N export (Nexp) Incl. Fodder crops Excl. residue management Inputs -Fertilizer -Animal manure -Biological N fixation -Atmospheric deposition Nsur=Inputs -Nexp-Nvol Nutrient Balances For Diffuse Source Estimates Upland crops Wetland rice Legumes Energy crops 0.5 by 0.5 degree grid cell Grassland SOIL Van Drecht et al. Global Biogeochem. Cycles (2003) Bouwman et al. Pedosphere (2005)

  15. River transport of DIN to coast(kg N km-2 y-1) Seitzinger et al. 2005 Global Biogeochemical Cycles

  16. Integrateddevelopment scenarios Policy Options & Costs NutrientSources from Food and Energy Nutrient Export at River Mouth

  17. Millennium Assessment Scenarios Global Regional Reactive OS GO Proactive TG AM

  18. NEWS-DIN Performance N.S.E.= 0.70 Modeled DIN yield (kg N km-2 y-1) Calibration Validation Measured DIN yield (kg N km-2 y-1) (Dumont et al., 2005: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Mayorga et al. 2010, Env. Modeling and Software)

  19. 1970-2050 Projections of River DIN ExportGlobal Orchestration Scenario

  20. NEWS-DIN-Predicted DIN Yield(kg N km-2 y-1) (Dumont et al., 2005: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Mayorga et al. 2010, Env. Modeling and Software)

  21. Global NEWS Global (N)utrient (E)xport from (W)ater(S)heds Project Co-chairsA.F. Bouwman, PBL, NetherlandsJ. Harrison, Washington State U., USA Other Participants A. Beusen RIVM, The NetherlandsG. Billen UMR Sisyphe (CNRS-UPMC), FranceD. Breitburg, SERC, USAF. Dentener JRC, Ispra, ItalyR. Diaz, VIMS, USAP. Döll Univ. Kassell, GermanyH. Envoldesen, UNESCO-IOC, DenmarkJ. Garnier, UMR Sisyphe (CNRS-UPMC), FranceP. Glibert, UMD, USAV. Ittekkot Ctr. Mar. Trop. Ecology, GermanyR. Kudela, UCSC, USAF.T. Mackenzie Univ. Hawaii, USAM. Meybeck UMR Sisyphe, France S. Seitzinger, IGBP, SwedenR. Smith, USGS, USAC. Vörösmarty Univ. New Hampshire, USAW. Yan Chinese Academy Sciences, China N. Caraco, Institute Ecosystem Studies, USAD. Conley, National Envir. Res. Inst., DenmarkJ. Garnier, UMR Sisyphe, FranceC. Kroeze, Univ. Wageningen, Netherlands

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