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Operational Global Model Plans

Operational Global Model Plans. John Derber. Timeline. July 25, 2013: Completion of phase 1 WCOSS transition August 20, 2013: GDAS/GFS model/analysis upgrade #1 April 2014: GDAS/GFS model/analysis upgrade #2 Jan - June 2015: phase 2 WCOSS transition

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Operational Global Model Plans

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  1. Operational Global Model Plans John Derber

  2. Timeline • July 25, 2013: Completion of phase 1 WCOSS transition • August 20, 2013: GDAS/GFS model/analysis upgrade #1 • April 2014: GDAS/GFS model/analysis upgrade #2 • Jan - June 2015: phase 2 WCOSS transition • Dec. 2015: GDAS/GFS/GEFS model/analysis upgrade #3 • Beyond 2016

  3. Global Upgrade #1 (Aug. 20, 2013) • Primarily observation usage upgrade • Include METOP-B, NPP-CrIS, MSG-3 in data assimilation system • Possibly include post processor changes

  4. Global upgrade #2 (April 2014)Probable components • Model • T1534 Semi-Lagrangian (~13km globally) • Use of high resolution daily SST and sea ice analysis • Physics • Cloud estimate modifications • Radiation modifications • High wind surface drag modification • Convective gravity wave drag • Dissipative heating • Snow accumulation consistent between model and post-processor • Land Surface • Removal of soil moisture nudging to climatology • Modification of vegetation tables • 20 category high resolution vegetation and high resolution soil type • Spin up of land state

  5. Global upgrade #2 (April 2014)Probable components • Analysis upgrades • GPSRO quality control enhancements + METOP-B GPSRO • Updates to radiance assimilation • Assimilate SSM/IS UPP LAS (1-7,23-24) data for F-17,18 • CRTM v2.1.3 • Unified angle/airmass bias correction • Adjustments to ob errors and channel usage • Satwind data • GOES – hourly data • EUMETSAT cloud top WV winds • EnKF modifications • T574 semi-Lagrangian ensembles • Ensemble hurricane relocation • Stochastic physics for analysis ensembles • Ensemble • Unification of analysis ensemble with GEFS ensemble • Ensemble resolution increase to T574L64

  6. Global upgrade #3 (Dec. 2015)Potential components • Model • Higher vertical resolution (~128 levels) - higher model top • Higher horizontal resolution • Physics • WAM physics for higher levels • Upgraded radiation (incremental neural net) • Enhanced convective parameterization (for higher resolution) • Upgrades to gravity wave drag • Coupled ocean/atmosphere/ice/land (also 1-d lake model) • Upgraded land and ocean models • Non-hydrostatic • NEMS infrastructure

  7. Global upgrade #3 (Dec. 2015)Potential components • Analysis upgrades • Cloudy radiances for microwave observations • Cloudy radiances for IR observations • Additional IASI, AIRS and CrIS channels (esp. moisture channels) • Improved use of surface land variables • Station by station conventional data QC and ob. errors • Bias correction for aircraft observations • 4d hybrid assimilation • Enhanced variational Quality Control • Inclusion of diabatic effects in initialization • Stochastic physics for ensembles

  8. Related global system modifications • Air quality model and Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) – Unified? • Lower horizontal resolution • WAM • 600km top • High atmosphere physics • Air Quality • Inclusion of aerosols and chemistry • Surface sources (daily estimate) • Volcano sources

  9. Beyond 2016 • Model • Higher vertical and horizontal resolution • Improved physics • WAM and AQ applications – impact on deterministic run • Possible new dynamic core • Analysis • Better use of current data • Use of more data • Improved use of cloud impacted radiances • Collaboration with external groups to enhance global prediction system • All work constrained by available human and computational resources and product delivery requirements

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