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PORTFOLIO AND SELECT COMMITTEES ON FINANCE

March 2006. PORTFOLIO AND SELECT COMMITTEES ON FINANCE. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS International Economy. International oil price - monthly average. OECD leading indicator and industrial production. World economic outlook: Real GDP. Annual percentage change in real GDP

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PORTFOLIO AND SELECT COMMITTEES ON FINANCE

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  1. March 2006 PORTFOLIO AND SELECT COMMITTEES ON FINANCE

  2. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSInternational Economy

  3. International oil price - monthly average

  4. OECD leading indicator and industrial production

  5. World economic outlook: Real GDP • Annual percentage change in real GDP • Actual Projections • World 5,1 4,3 4,3 • Advanced economies 3,3 2,5 2,7 • USA 4,2 3,5 3,3 • Japan 2,7 2,0 2,0 • Euro area 2,0 1,2 1,8 • United Kingdom 3,2 1,9 2,2 • Newly industrialised Asian • economies* 5,6 4,0 4,7 • Emerging market and • developing countries 7,3 6,4 6,1 • Africa 5,3 4,5 5,9 • Central and eastern Eur. 6,5 4,3 4,6 • Developing Asia 8,2 7,8 7,2 • Western hemisphere 5,6 4,1 3,8 • * Includes Hong Kong SAR, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan Province of China • Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, September 2005 2004 2005 2006

  6. World economic outlook: Consumer prices • Annual percentage change in consumer prices • Actual Projections • World 3,7 3,9 3,7 • Advanced economies 2,0 2,2 2,0 • USA 2,7 3,1 2,8 • Japan 0,0 -0,4 -0,1 • Euro area 2,1 2,1 1,8 • United Kingdom 1,3 2,0 1,9 • Newly industrialised Asian • economies* 2,4 2,2 2,3 • Emerging market and • developing countries 5,8 5,9 5,7 • Africa 7,8 8,2 7,0 • Central and eastern Eur. 6,5 4,8 4,3 • Developing Asia 4,2 4,2 4,7 • Western hemisphere 6,5 6,3 5,4 • * Includes Hong Kong SAR, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan Province of China • Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, September 2005 2004 2005 2006

  7. Key central bank interest rates • Per cent • Countries 1 January 2005 10 March 2006 Latest change • (Percentage points) • USA 2,25 4,50 31 Jan 2006 (+0,25) • Japan 0,00 0,00 19 Mar 2001 (-0,15) • Euro area 2,00 2,50 2 Mar 2006 (+0,25) • United Kingdom 4,75 4,50 4 Aug 2005 (-0,25) • Canada 2,50 3,75 7 Mar 2006 (+0,25) • Denmark 2,00 2,50 3 Mar 2006 (+0,25) • Sweden 2,00 2,00 23 Feb 2006 (+0,25) • Switzerland 0,25 – 1,25 0,50 – 1,50 15 Dec 2005 (+0,25) • Australia 5,25 5,50 2 Mar 2005 (+0,25) • New Zealand 6,50 7,25 8 Dec 2005 (+0,25) • Israel 3,70 4,75 23 Jan 2006 (+0,25) • China 5,58 5,58 29 Oct 2004 (+0,27) • Hong Kong 3,75 6,00 1 Feb 2006 (+0,25) • India 4,75 5,50 24 Jan 2006 (+0,25) • Malaysia* 2,70 3,25 22 Feb 2006 (+0,25)

  8. Key central bank interest rates • Per cent • Countries 1 January 2005 10 March 2006 Latest change • (Percentage points) • South Korea 3,25 4,00 9 Feb 2006 (+0,25) • Taiwan 1,75 2,25 22 Dec 2005 (+0,125) • Thailand 2,00 4,50 8 Mar 2006 (+0,25) • Brazil 17,75 16,50 8 Mar 2006 (-0,75) • Chile 2,25 4,75 9 Feb 2006 (+0,25) • Mexico** 8,81 7,50 24 Feb 2006 (-0,25) • Czech Republic 2,50 2,00 27 Oct 2005 (+0,25) • Hungary 9,50 6,00 20 Sep 2005 (-0,25) • Poland 6,50 4,00 28 Feb 2006 (-0,25) • Russia 13,00 12,00 26 Dec 2005 (-1,00) • South Africa 7,50 7,00 15 Apr 2005 (-0,50) • * The central bank of Malaysia introduced a new interest rate framework on 23 April 2004. • ** The Bank of Mexico has decided on a gradual transition toward a policy target regime, but • retains the “el corto” until the transition is complete. • Source: National central banks

  9. USA: Real gross domestic product

  10. USA: Unemployment rate

  11. USA: Consumer prices and central bank interest rates

  12. Japan: Real gross domestic product

  13. Japan: Unemployment rate

  14. Japan: Consumer prices

  15. Euro area: Real gross domestic product

  16. Euro area: Unemployment rate

  17. Euro area: Consumer prices and central bank interest rate

  18. UK: Real gross domestic product

  19. UK: Unemployment

  20. UK: Consumer prices and central bankinterest rate

  21. SADC: Inflation • Annual percentage change in consumer prices • 2004 2005 Nov 2005 Dec 2005 Jan 2005 • Africa 7,8 * * * * • Angola 43,6 23,2 19,0 18,5 17,2 • Botswana 6,6 8,6 11,3 11,4 16,6 • Lesotho 5,0 3,4 3,4 3,5 * • Malawi 11,6 15,4 16,2 16,5 16,7 • Madagascar 13,8 18,8 12,8 11,4 10,0 • Mauritius 4,3 4,9 3,6 3,9 6,0 • Mozambique 12,6 7,2 9,6 14,0 11,5 • Namibia 4,1 2,3 3,4 3,4 3,6 • South Africa 1,4 3,4 3,4 3,6 4,0 • Swaziland 3,5 * 6,2 6,3 * • Tanzania 4,3 ,4 4,8 5,0 5,4 • Zambia 18,0 18,3 17,2 15,9 12,2 • Zimbabwe 350,0 266,8 502,4 585,8 613,2 • * Not available • Source: National central banks, unpublished Standard Bank data and IMF World Economic Outlook, • September 2005

  22. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTSNational Economy

  23. Real gross domestic product 6-year upswing

  24. Real gross domestic product in thesecondary sector

  25. Real gross domestic expenditure

  26. Real final consumption expenditureby households

  27. Real disposable income of households

  28. Household debt as percentage of disposable income of households

  29. Real final consumption expenditure bygeneral government

  30. Real gross fixed capital formation

  31. Real gross domestic final demand

  32. Change in inventories

  33. Gross saving as percentage of grossdomestic product

  34. Non-agricultural employment

  35. Labour market statistics, based on the labour force survey • Sep Mar Sep Mar Sep • 2003 2004 2004 2005 2005 • (000’s) (000’s) (000’s) (000’s) (000’s) • a. Total employment 11 424 11 392 11 643 11 907 12 301 • b. Total unemployed (official definition) 4 434 4 415 4 135 4 283 4 487 • c. Total economically active = a + b 15 858 15 807 15 778 16 190 16 788 • d. Total not economically active 13 080 13 324 13 527 13 334 12 909 • e. Total aged 15-65 years = c + d 28 938 29 131 29 305 29 524 29 697 • f. Official unemployment rate = b * 100/c 28,0% 27,9% 26,2% 26,5% 26,7% • Source: Labour Force Survey by Statistics South Africa

  36. Non-agricultural nominal remunerationper worker

  37. Non-agricultural labour productivity

  38. Non-agricultural nominal unit labour cost

  39. Nominal unit labour cost in manufacturing

  40. Headline inflation and CPIX

  41. All-goods production prices

  42. Balance of payments: Current account

  43. Balance on financial account*

  44. Financial account

  45. Gross gold and other foreign reserves and international liquidity position of the South African Reserve Bank

  46. Imports covered by reserves

  47. Average net daily turnover in the SouthAfrican foreign exchange market

  48. Exchange rates of the rand

  49. Growth in M3

  50. Total loans and advances extended toprivate sector

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