Aviation and climate change: thoughts on UK policy

1. Aviation and climate change: thoughts on UK policy Peter Lockley Ubina Environmental Consulting Saturday 18th June 2011

2. Contents The Climate Change Act Aviation emissions – do they fit? 2050 target and the CCC Report Is the 2050 target the right one? Cleaner planes? Implications for policy

3. The Climate Change Act 2008 • First climate change target enshrined in legislation: • 80% cut on 1990 levels by 2050 • 5-year budgets to keep UK on track to meet target • Advice of Committee on Climate Change on budgets etc • International aviation (+shipping) excluded, but: • Budgets must be set ‘taking into account’ IAS • Govt must include by end of 2012, or say why not.

4. Q: How does aviation fit into the budget?

5. A: With difficulty. • Overall 80% cut in 2050 requires: • International shipping no higher than 2005 levels; • Non-CO2 emissions cut by 70% (maximum feasible); • International aviation no higher than 2005 levels; • All other sectors reduce emissions by c.90% • No offsets available by 2050 • Cost of forcing extra cuts in other sectors?

6. 2050 target and CCC report • Jan 2009: previous Govt set target for absolute emissions to be no higher in 2050 than 2005 • Dec 2009: CCC Report on how to meet the target: • 0.8% annual improvement in fuel efficiency ‘likely’ • Passenger numbers can increase to 370 mppa by 2050 – MAX compatible with target • cf ATWP: 470 mppa by 2030, 570 by 2050. • Even with no new runways, and C price rising to £200/t in 2050, demand = 425 mppa.

7. Is ‘2005 levels’ the right target? • Impact on other sectors • Shipping may be higher than assumed by CCC – report due this year • Aviation non-CO2 impacts: • NOx at altitude, cirrus, contrails • Problems with RFI, but new work on GWP(100) suggests multiplier of 2. • So… cut aviation target in half? Or other sectors cut by 95%?!

8. CCC on non-CO2 effects “As scientific understanding develops, and to the extent that this confirms the significant additional warming from aviation non-CO2 effects, it is very likely that these will become fully accounted for…” “It is reasonable to assume… that some additional emissions reduction effort would be required in aviation.” IMPLIES that stabilisation is a bare minimum acceptable target for aviation.

9. Cleaner planes: in theory Source: Sustainable Aviation Roadmap 2008

10. Cleaner planes: in practice Trends in UK terminal passengers and emissions from UK aviation Source: CAA airport Statistics and UK National GHG Inventory data (DECC)

11. “A genuinely sustainable framework” • Reaffirm 2050 target, with a commitment to regular review of adequacy in light of: • Non-CO2 science; • Trends in other sectors. • Immediate freeze on airport expansion: • ATWP is dead, so no policy basis to support expansion • Current permitted expansion = c.370mppa (AEF/WWF) • Growth only in return for proven fuel efficiency gains • New slots auctioned to highest bidder every 5 or 10 years – if any available? • Increase in APD, strengthening of EU ETS when possible, package of support for alternatives.