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Forward and inverse modelling of atmospheric trace gas at LSCE

Forward and inverse modelling of atmospheric trace gas at LSCE. P. Bousquet, I. Pison, P. Peylin, P. Ciais, D. Hauglustaine, S. Szopa Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE). Atmospheric chemistry modelling at LSCE. Forward modelling. Inverse modelling. LMDZ-INCA

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Forward and inverse modelling of atmospheric trace gas at LSCE

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  1. Forward and inverse modelling of atmospheric trace gas at LSCE P. Bousquet, I. Pison, P. Peylin, P. Ciais, D. Hauglustaine, S. Szopa Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE)

  2. Atmospheric chemistry modelling at LSCE Forward modelling Inverse modelling LMDZ-INCA Full model LMDZ-INCA CH4+MCF SACS Simplified Atm. Chemistry System CHIMERE Regional model Traditional inversion Variational inversion

  3. The general circulation model: LMDz-INCA • Standard horizontal resolution 3.75x2.5 • Standard vertical resolution: 19 hybrid -p levels (surface to 35 km). • Dynamic: large scale advection of tracers: LMDz • Chemistry: standard version for tropospheric ozone calculation including NMHCs (90 species – 300 reactions); aerosols (mineral, sea-salt, BC, OC, sulfur): INCA • Biogenic Emissions from the ORCHIDEE dynamical vegetation model • Anthropogenic emissions from either Edgar/IIASA/RETRO • Biomass burning from van der Werf 2006 Hauglustaine et al., JGR, 2004

  4. 2/ 1960-2000 long-term simulation 1/ Global to regional scale modeling platform LMDz-INCA General Circulation Model. INCA: tropospheric gaz phase chemistry, aerosols and long-lived greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O). 3.75° x 2.5°. ORCHIDEE dynamical vegetation model used to derive surface properties, vegetation distribution, carbon cycle, biogenic and soil emissions. 40km x 40km. Real-time chemical weather based on operational meteorology OR reanalysis (ERA40) OR free running GCM. Chimère regional air quality model nested in LMDz-INCA global model. 50km X 50km. 3/ 2030 simulation RETRO EU project (2003-2006) : reanalysis of the tropospheric chemical composition over the past 40 years. Best available meteorology (ERA40), new monthly resolved anthropogenic and biomass burning surface emissions, stratospheric ozone climatologies. Multimodel approach: 2 GCMs with chemistry and 3 CTMs. PHOTOCOMP intercomparison (IPCC AR4-ACCENT) of future atmospheric composition. 25 state-of-the-art global chemistry transport models. 3 different scenarios for future surface emissions. Regional model Chimère constrained by LMDz-INCA : relative impact of emissions versus long-range transport of pollution on air quality in Europe.

  5. 1/ LMDz-INCA global chemical weather platform 3 day (NCEP) and 5 day (ECMWF) forecasts for global tropospheric chemistry, aerosols and long-lived greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O) http://www.lsce-inca.cea.fr/

  6. 1/ Biomass burning emissions based on MODIS fires Siberian fires 31 Aug 2006 MODIS fire pixels over last 3 days

  7. 1/ Vegetation and carbon real-time platform Net Primary Production, soil water content, Leaf Area Index, PAR, … NPP gC/m2/day http://www.lsce-orchidee.cea.fr/

  8. 1/ Spatial and seasonal variations of BVOC emissions Monoterpenes BVOC emissions and NO soil emissions derived from the ORCHIDEE vegetation model Isoprene 10-10 kgC/m2/s ORCHIDEE GEIA January July Lathière et al., ACP, 2006

  9. 2/ 1960-2000 global simulation : surface emissions Anthropogenic Emissions: New global inventories for NOx, CO, and (detailed) NMVOC on a 0.5° 0.5° and monthly time resolution from 1960 to 2000. TEAM methodology (Pulles et al. 2006). Processed by M. Schulz (MPI Met).

  10. 2/ 1960-2000 global simulation : ozone evolution 1970 1980 1990 2000 1960 Max Min

  11. 3/ Implication for Europe : regional model Surface ozone change (ppb) averaged over July (2030-Present) Current Legislation Max. Feasible Reduction IPCC SRES A2 Szopa et al., GRL, 2006

  12. Traditional inversion Large TRANSCOM regions Several processes on each 1979-2006 period MCF optimisation to get OH CH4 optimisation using optimized OH over 1984-2006 Monthly emissions & observations Use of 13CH4 observations Iterative procedure to calculate response functions 18 different inversions varying set-up

  13. Optimisation des sources et puits de méthane Bousquet et al., 2005, 2006 Habilitation à Diriger des Recherches Philippe Bousquet 13 Décembre 2006

  14. Consistent with top-down estimates ? Bousquet et al., ACP, 2005

  15. Geographical Breakdown

  16. Geographical Europe Source Breakdown / EEA

  17. And the plant emissions ? Scenario with plant emissions gives the same atmospheric answer at surface station but with a 30% reduction in emissions (100 TgCH4/yr) IAV is “borrowed” mostly to anthropogenic emissions leaving natural emissions IAV almost unchanged at least from the early 1990s

  18. Planned work in HYMN : WP5 : Forward simulations with full LMDZ-INCA model period ? 2-3 years ? Common initial state ? Common emissions ? Different scenarios ? What about OH ? Diagnostics ? Seasonal, synoptic, IAV ? WP6 : Inverse modelling multi-species variational approach Use of traditional inversions ? H2 inversion with traditional approach

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