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Explore the ethical dilemmas and economic impact of Ebola vaccines. Scientists grapple with the rush to release vaccines amidst mounting cases and fear. Discover the challenges of limited supply, distribution priorities, cost considerations, and the potential economic benefits vs. risks. Learn how the Ebola outbreak has affected agriculture and other industries in the region, as well as the global economy.
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“Scientists Grapple with Ethics in Rush to Release Ebola vaccines” Kate Kelland Reuters September 28th, 2014 http://news.yahoo.com/scientists-grapple-ethics-rush-release-ebola-vaccines-135816919--finance.html;_ylt=AwrBEiEXNChUW1cAAkfQtDMD
Spread of Ebola Since March 7178 confirmed cases with 51% death rate Number of recorded cases doubling every few weeks One confirmed case of Ebola in US (Thomas Duncan) 50 people under close monitoring, 10 high risk 100 under surveillance 1600 soldiers being deployed to curb spread
Efforts to Combat Ebola Experimental drugs (ZMapp) Blood transfusions from survivors Supportive Care Hard to isolate and find potentially sick people
Potential for vaccines • Potential vaccine created • Effectiveness and safety is unknown • Should unproven vaccine be given? • Limited supply with high demand • Who to give vaccine first? Conduct experiments first? Ethicality? • Cost of vaccines prevented deployment in 2010
Economics of Ebola Vaccine Marginal Costs ≤ Marginal Benefits $600 million ≤ Value of life*Probability of death Value of life ≥ $600 million/.51 Value of Life ≈ $1.18 billion
Economic Impact of Ebola • Decreased productivity due to fear • Aversion behavior • Significant reduction in travel and tourism • Closing all schools for 4 weeks cost $10 billion to $47 billion • Economy in West Africa deflated by 30% • Direct costs (mortality, morbidity, caregiving) • Cross Border markets closed • Virtual economic standstill • Loss of trade partners
Ebola Vaccine Impact on Agriculture Industry Currently Cassava, staple crop in region, has doubled in price Vaccine reduces fear and allows farmers to return to fields. Shift in supply will help decrease equilibrium prices, and increase output.
References http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/history/chronology.html http://www.businessinsider.com/economic-effects-of-africa-ebola-outbreak-2014-10 http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/10/06/354031865/u-s-journalist-with-ebola-being-flown-to-nebraska-hospital http://www.economist.com/node/5017166 http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/06/health/ebola-us/