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Le Duc National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecast

Le Duc National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecast. A short range ensemble prediction system applied in TC forecast. Jeju, 05 - 2009. Motivation. The success of SREPS in other centers (SREPS in NCEP, COSMO-LEPS in ECMWF, SREPS in INM, …):

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Le Duc National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecast

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  1. Le Duc National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecast A short range ensemble prediction system applied in TC forecast Jeju, 05 - 2009

  2. Motivation • The success of SREPS in other centers (SREPS in NCEP, COSMO-LEPS in ECMWF, SREPS in INM, …): • The useful information of EPS in storm movement forecast (ECMWF EPS, NCEP EPS, JMA EPS) • SREF can detect the occurrence of extreme phenomena like heavy rainfall, heat wave, …

  3. Method • Breeding of growing mode (NCEP) • Singular vectors (ECMWF) • Observation perturbations (CMC) • Ensemble transform Kalman filter • Ensemble transform We take the multi-model, multi-analysis approach.

  4. SREPS description • 4 times per day, 72h forecast (00Z, 12Z), 48h forecast (06Z, 18Z) • output format: netcdf (interpolated to a common area) • parallel post processing (graphics) • access through intranet

  5. Computational resources • PC Cluster 16 nodes, 4 cores per node, 8G RAM per node: • BOLAM: 3 nodes • Eta: 4 nodes • HRM: 3 nodes • WRFNMM: 6 nodes • Dell 2 CPUs, 4 cores per CPU, 16G RAM: pre and post processing

  6. Website

  7. Stamp map: storm tracks

  8. A member forecast

  9. Strike probability maps

  10. Point accumulated strike probability charts

  11. Example: TC Higos

  12. Stamp map: 06h precipitation

  13. Precipitation probability maps

  14. Largest value Upper quartile Median Lower quartile Smallest value Interpretation of boxplots Image of PDF EPSgram

  15. Future work: new website

  16. Future work: NAEFS

  17. Future works • Verification • Post-processing: bias correction, BMA or NGM • A specific SREPS for TC forecast: 5 models BoLAM, BRAMS, HRM, MM5, WRF-ARW, storm target domain • Clustering

  18. Thank you

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