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Hydro-meteorological prediction system in Indochina

Hydro-meteorological prediction system in Indochina. T. Satomura, T. Oki, J. Matsumoto and colleagues. On going studies. Observation of zonal variation of rainfall across Indochina CREST ( -2008 autumn)

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Hydro-meteorological prediction system in Indochina

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  1. Hydro-meteorological prediction system in Indochina T. Satomura, T. Oki, J. Matsumoto and colleagues

  2. On going studies • Observation of zonal variation of rainfall across Indochina • CREST ( -2008 autumn) • Development of prototype for hydro-meteorological short-range prediction system and quasi-realtime rainfall distribution in Indochina • JEPP ( -2008 spring) & GaME-T

  3. Background • There are many daily rainfall obs. in Indochina. • Number of high time-resolution rainfall obs. is not large. • Radar are not well combined with data of rain gauge. • Thus detailed aspects of rainfall are not well known, and it obstructs development of short-range hydro-meteorological prediction system in Indochina.

  4. Automatic rain gauge network by this study 18N

  5. 2005/05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 2006/01 02 03 04 [mm/hour] 2004/03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01LT 06LT 12LT 18LT 24LT 00LT 06LT 12LT 18LT 23LT Hiep Duc, Vietnam [mm/hour] Shwegyin, Myanmar

  6. Maximum rainfall time shifts from midnight to early morning during monsoon months. • Strong but short duration rain dominates

  7. FLASH FLOOD INUNDATION NORTHERN THAILAND 1994 FLOODS IN NORTHERN THAILAND IN LASTDECADE 2006 2001 2001 1994 1995 2001 1994 1995 2000 2001 2002 1994 1995 2006 2002 2001 2001 2006 1994 1995 2001 2002 2001 by ThadaSukhapunaphan

  8. Site description Mae Wang basin in Chiang Mai (basin area : 550 km2)

  9. JEPP/GEOSS Data Archive

  10. Runoff simulation in Mae Waang from 3 arc second (100m)DEM (by Kenji Tanaka)

  11. Missing Station If missing a raingauge station data Interpolated from surrounding stations Missing one station 1 7 3 9 12 5 13 2 11 8 14 4 6 10 how runoff simulation is affected? (by Kenji Tanaka)

  12. Radar-precip. estimation in Mae Chaem Watershed Estimate 2-dimensional hourly precipitation with the use of meteorological radar and raingauge data. (a) Om Koi meteorological radar • S-band • (17.798oN, 98.433oE), 1,160mASL • Elevation: 3 levels (0.6o, 1.4o, 2.2o) • Temporal interval: ~5 minutes (b) Raingauge • Tipping bucket • 9 stations Mae Chaem Watershed Om Koi Radar observation range Raingauge stations

  13. Z-R relationship • Assume Z=aRb type relation and estimate parameters a and b by comparison of radar and raingauge data. • Using Z=aRb type seems valid. Z=12.3R1.93 Raingauge precipitation Logarithmic raingauge precipitation Hourly-base reflectivity factor (dBz) Hourly-base reflectivity factor (dBz)

  14. Results Hourly precipitation averaged in MCW Daily radar precipitation in MCW Estimated 5-month precipitation (May-September, 1999) Daily precipitation averaged over 9 raingauges Animation from 22 to 26 Aug.

  15. 16 Modeling is also on going 6km • Exp. of fine spacio-time distribution of rainfall • In dawn on 10 Aug. 2001 when flush flood occurred strong precipitation system stayed over the concerned area 1km (b) 3h prep. at 15Z, 9 Aug. 2001 (c) 3h prep. at 18Z , 9 Aug. 2001 (d) 3h prep. at 21Z, 9 Aug. 2001 (e) 3h prep. at 00Z, 10 Aug. 2001

  16. For AMY08 • We will try to find fund(s) and to continue observation. • We hope that exchange (or use) of obs. data and prediction know-how would be much more freely and easily among researchers in the same and/or different Indochina countries.

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