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Economic Overview

Economic Overview. Civil Engineering Industry Pierre Blaauw. Infrastructure HISTORY. Global Construction Spending (US$ bn) 2007. SA: 13bn US$ (@ 7.50 Growth 2006-2007: 21%. General Government Savings and Current Balance. Source: Treasure Medium Term Policy Statement. Sectoral Trends.

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Economic Overview

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  1. Economic Overview Civil Engineering Industry Pierre Blaauw

  2. Infrastructure HISTORY

  3. Global Construction Spending (US$ bn) 2007 SA: 13bn US$ (@ 7.50 Growth 2006-2007: 21%

  4. General Government Savings and Current Balance Source: Treasure Medium Term Policy Statement

  5. Sectoral Trends Source: Treasure Medium Term Policy Statement

  6. Reserve margin = 8-10% Reserve margin = 16% Reserve margin = 20% Reserve margin = 25% Reserve margin aspiration = 15%

  7. IMPLICATIONS • GROWTH BASED ON STABILITY & EXCELLENT NATIONAL TREASURY & SARB • GROWTH CAUSED INCREASED DEMAND; • ROADS • WATER • ELECTRICITY • RAIL CONNECTIONS • PORTS • NEXT PHASE OF GROWTH DEPENDS ON INCREASED CAPACITY OF INFRASTRUCTURE

  8. Medium Term Budget Statement 2008/09 – 2010/11: R482 billion BUDGET: Election orientated – focus on delivery and social grants possible tax incentives, unlikely to operate on the basis of a surplus.

  9. 2010 Allocations: 2005/06-2010

  10. 2010 Allocations: 2005/06-2010

  11. Financial years Transnet’s five year gross capital investment budget

  12. And Some Other Projects • SANRAL R23 billion • R10 billion over the next two years • Koeberg Interchange R500 million • Majuba Rail Link R2-2.5 Billion • R300 around R500 million • Coega Several Billions • King Shaka Airport R3 billion (Civils) • Gautrain R1.5-R2 million a day

  13. Capacity Funnel Projects Feasibility, Business Case, Contract Concluding Opportunity Identification Build Research Pre-feasibility 165 4500 PBMR 3500 New Coal Supply 1600 350 Yankee Oscar 1150 1500 1200 961 1775 100 1332 600 1600 UCG Lima Tango Komati Discard Coal Renewable 1 Ingula November Sierra 1200 India 100 1520 1128 Victor 2400 3000 900 6000 100 Grootvlei Camden Concentrating Solar Nuclear 1 Papa Co-Gen 1 Mike 4500 Gas 2 500 300 1050 Foxtrot 400 1000 4500 Zulu 2400 Arnot P1&P2 Quebec 0 Cogeneration Hwange Medupi 500 Echo 1000 Delta HVDC 1 4500 Hydro 0 Coal 1 Hydro 1 600 Golf 4500 450 600 1050 CBM 10000 Nuclear 350 Bravo Juliett Ankerlig Gourikwa 1300 2000 Gas 1 Nuclear n 500 1000 Gas Non Eskom Generation 1 Coal 2 Kilo Whiskey Hydro 2 Coal 765kV 400kV Solar 26 125 MW 22 650 MW 18 350 MW 11 941 MW Transmission Renewables * Red outer circle indicates – out of Borders project

  14. Private Sector • 87 Projects announced worth R134.9 bill • Manufacturing R68.2 bill • Mining R32 bill for next 5 years • Real Estate Developments R30 bill Nedbank Project Listing

  15. Civil Engineering industry

  16. 2000 and GREAT? • SUSTAINABILITY • SPEED BUMP NOT DERAILED – ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE BOTTLENECKS • POLITICAL CHALLENGES • EXCHANGE RATE WEAKER – ESCALATION – STIMULATE EXPORT ORIENTATED INDUSTRY • SKILL SHORTAGES

  17. Low Risk High Risk Qualified Resources - skills Contract Models Risk vs. Reward Change Management Growth & Expansion Risk Management Process Project Development Portfolio Risk Client Management Low Bidding Status of Partner Schedule Design Development Payment Key Risk Issues in effective infrastructure project structuring Source: ECRI

  18. Training and EducationCurrent trends and requirements for technical skills to cater for growth EX Allyson Lawless

  19. 69 Black 64 White 59 54 49 Age 44 39 34 29 24 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Number per age group Civil Engineering – Engineers & Technologists EX Allyson Lawless, June 2004

  20. Price Escalation for Construction Works: 2003 -2006 Source: Treasure Medium Term Policy Statement

  21. Construction Charter • Latest Developments • PPPFA • Verification • Supplier Status? • CHAOS

  22. Concluding Remarks • THIS IS NOT BUSINESS AS USUAL • YOU MUST DELIVER MORE INFRASTRUCTURE IN A SHORTER TIME WITH LESS RESOURCES THAN EVER BEFORE.

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