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AN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 2011

AN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 2011. ALY-KHAN SATCHU presents to DELOITTE www.rich.co.ke. GLOBAL MACRO TRENDS. 23 rd February Tweet Ai Weiwei. The Translation.

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AN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW 2011

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  1. AN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW2011 ALY-KHAN SATCHU presents to DELOITTE www.rich.co.ke

  2. GLOBAL MACRO TRENDS

  3. 23rd February Tweet Ai Weiwei

  4. The Translation • "I didn't care about jasmine at first, but peoplewho are scared by jasmine sent out information about how harmfuljasmine is often, which makes me realize that jasmine is what scaresthem the most. What a jasmine!"

  5. Mohamed Bouazizi – Tipping Agent

  6. Gaddafi The Craziest Guy In The Room

  7. Heightened Geopolitical Risk Lifts Crude

  8. Crude Oil Post Bouazizi

  9. Kenya Spent KES 250 BN 12 Months thr Feb 2011 +31% on Crude Imports

  10. The Mobile – A Game Changer – Signal To Noise-Gulliver and Lilliputians

  11. Food Price Index- All Time High

  12. AFRICA THE BROADER CANVAS "The first quarter of 2011 has been among the most turbulent in Africa's history.“ AFDB

  13. Statistics • 2 Billion Consumers in 2050 • A Billion Consumers Now • Walmart Buys Massmart for $4.4 Billion • Bharti Buys Zain for $10.7 Billion • More Families in Africa who earn more than $20,000 p.a. than in India • China-Africa trade over $100 Billion

  14. East Africa – The Region • East Africa's economy is expected to show growth of 6.7 percent this year, from 6.2 percent in 2010 • Regional GDP 2010 – Feel The Growth : • Uganda 6.3% • Tanzania 7.0% • Rwanda 6.5% • Sudan 5.9% • Burundi 3.7% • Kenya 5.6% • A market of 160 Million Consumers

  15. Pres. Museveni Upsizes His Oil Find To 10 Bn Barrels = $4 Trillion at #Mindspeak

  16. South Sudan Expected To Grow 20-25% GDP but currently squeezed by Bashir

  17. Kenya Exports Market changing • Uganda overtaken UK as Kenya’s number one trading partner • Somalia, Sudan, DRC among Kenya’s top 10 export destinations

  18. Reading the Kenyan Economy you need to be an Economist and a Meteorologist

  19. KENYA THE STATE OF THE NOW • Inflation surges to 12.95% from a cycle low of 3.1% in 2010 • Bond Yields at 9 year highs • The Shilling at an all time low • The NSE 20 -8%

  20. Kenya Shilling At An All Time Low

  21. NSE 20 Index -8% in 2011

  22. The ICT Revolution – Kenya as a Laboratory Experiment • Kenyan mobile phone subscriber numbers rose 28 percent to 25 millionlast year • Internet users stood at 10 million last December compared with 4 million in 2009, CCK said

  23. Is the New Constitution a Tipping Point for Political Risk • Out of the last 4 elections we have mismanaged 3 • ICC process – will it be cathartic? • The Future is not seen in the Rear View Mirror or is it?

  24. Thank-You

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