PRESCRIBED SUBJECT Route 2: Prescribed Subject 3: Communism in Crisis

1. PRESCRIBED SUBJECT Route 2: • Prescribed Subject 3: Communism in Crisis • The Fall of Communism: The USSR and Eastern Europe • Area #1 • Domestic and Foreign Problems of the Brezhnev Era: Economic and Political Stagnation; Afghanistan

2. Problems Inherited by Brezhnev • Khrushchev Legacy • Seizes power from Malenkov/Bulganin after brief power struggle • Still repressive state but… • Fewer imprisoned • Less violence and few killed • Begins De-Stalinization • Secret Speech • CPSU, February 25, 1956 • Khrushchev shocked his listeners by denouncing Stalin's dictatorial rule and cult of personality • also attacked the crimes committed by associates of Lavrentiy Beria. • end to the role of large-scale forced labor • Freeing Gulag prisoners

3. Problems Inherited by Brezhnev • Khrushchev as reformer • Limits to critique of Stalin • Collectivization, anti religion (Churches closed) • Economic reforms but still a Command Economy • Modest industrial authority to local officials • Virgin Lands scheme • Grow crops on marginal lands like Siberia • Reforms lead to 6% growth 1955-60 • Other reforms • Term limits for Bureaucrats (HATE IT!!)

4. Problems Inherited by Brezhnev • Khrushchev as reformer (2) • Invests in Space Race • Sputnik is first satellite 1957 • Yuri Gagarin first man in space 1961 • Foreign Policy • Secret Speech creates hope for reform in satellite states • The “Thaw” follows with the West • Peaceful Coexistence • USSR can compete without violence • Triumph over capitalism by example not force • Fails • Hungarian reforms crushed 1956 • H-Bomb developed and build 1st ICBM (Missle) • Also Berlin Crisis 1958-61, Cuba 1962

5. Brezhnev Domestic Policy • Leonid Brezhnev • Khrushchev protégé whon heads Central Committee • Conspires with N. Podgorny, A. Kosygin and M. Suslov to oust Khrushchev 1964 • “B” becomes General Secretary of Party, “P”, head of State, “Ko” gets SOVNARKOM • Not very bright, very vain (awards self 60 medals), is a classic Soviet Bureaucrat • Collective rule as he is a good organizer but not bright • Rules to 1982 as others gradually pushed aside • Ill by 1973, not in charge after 1976 (Senile) but kept on as figurehead • Leadership is very elderly doesn’t want power struggle

6. Brezhnev Domestic Policy • Leonid Brezhnev • Reverses Khrushchev reforms • Term limits abolished • Central Planning resumes • Kosygin tries to a modest reform by using sales and profits not quotas for production targets • Proposes local control and computers and automation to expand • Tech. trade as well • Brezhnev undermines reforms • Conservative by nature and won’t abandon price and wage controls • Reforms can’t work if this stays in place

7. Brezhnev Problems • Problems • “Partocracy” • Ensures political stability and Party power/privileges at all costs • Party grows 20% 1971-81 • Harder to discipline/more diverse • 1977 Constitution reaffirms Party dominance • Socialism now mature (implies no changes) • Gerontocracy • Focus on “stability of cadres • Stay in office til death so CPSU ages (average age P-buro rises 55 to 68 from 1966-81) • Central Committee only 44% turnover same period

8. Brezhnev Problems • Problems (con’t) • Corruption • 750,000 Party and State officials and managers (Nomenklatura) • Great security of position, privileges and perks • Special stores, medical, housing, income • Ex. Brezhnev has luxury Limos • Key function seems to be to preserve their status not to promote communism • Most don’t work hard, stagnation • Cynicism • Few citizens believe in communism, the Party or the system • Contempt for corruption “They pretend to pay us, we pretend to work”. • "Leonid Ilyich is in surgery.""Heart again?""No, chest expansion surgery: to fit one more Gold Star medal."

9. Brezhnev Problems • Bright Spots under Brezhnev? • Living standards up modestly • State Security, KGB, MVD etc. is 700,000 and prevents active dissent • State has full and active control of the media to stifle dissent • Party is quite large (10% of total population) and the privileged are unlikely to revolt • State propaganda trumpets Soviet sports success, particularly Olympics • Widespread cheating and drugs but athletes are national heroes • Problem is none of this gets active support for the regime they just endure it • Dissent never a serious threat • Do not overstate this • Mostly urban intellectuals, numbers small • Most of Khrushchev’s religious persecution ended

10. Brezhnev Problems • Dissent never a serious threat (con’t) • Still controls on Catholics and Uniates • Do take tough line on vocal dissenters • Y. Daniel, A. Sinayavsky get hard labor for smuggling out works (published abroad) • Poet Iosif Broadsky exiled 1972 • Solzhenitsyn, Nobel Prize The Gulag Archipelago and also writes about internal exile (Exiled 1974 after years in jail) • A. Sakharov, physicist internal exile 1980 (Soviet H-Bomb inventor) • Two strands of dissent • Human Rights/anti-authoritarians • Samizdat: self published photocopies (4000 in1979) • Magnitizdat magnetic tape publishing

11. Brezhnev Problems • Dissent (con’t) • Growing national unrest not dangerous yet but potentially huge threat • Multinational USSR (Russians only 52% and birth rate declining • Baltics, Islamic regions all potentially explosive • Jewish “refusenniks” demand to be allowed to leave • Few are permitted, causes tension with the west (Why? Other groups might follow) • Why the growth of dissent 1970’s -80’s? • De-stalinization discredits Communist Party • Repression remains but Stalin successors reluctant to use extreme violence/terror (so more speak out) • Society more urban/educated undermines control • Aware of West culture/wealth (TV/Radio jamming doesn’t always work) • West pressures USSR to Keep human rights agreements like Helsinki Accords (1975)

12. Brezhnev Problems • Economic Stagnation • Slowdown of Econ. Worsens under Brezhnev • Stagnation here as well • At first failures masked by high oil/gold prices of which USSR has huge reserves • Can pay for tech. imports and grain • Some successes 1966-76 • Agri grows 21% 1966-70 (Private plots expanded) • Oil production up 50% 1972-80 • Siberian RR construction • Living Standards ( 86% have Fridge, 74% have TV’s • Modest wage increase for urban and rural workers (up to 90% of industrial wage) • Basic commodities like bread, potatoes, clothes, rent, kept low by the state • Problem is state can’t afford the subsidies they pay to keep prices low

13. Brezhnev Problems • Economic Stagnation • Failures under Brezhnev (con’t) • Steady decline of Industrial growth • 5% 1960-65, 2% by 1979-82 • Tech. gap widens as computer age begins (no innovation/risk taking like Bill Gates or Steve Jobs) • Agri. growth 1% per year 1981-85 despite investing 27% of gov’t budget on agriculture (ex. US gov’t 4% in agriculture at same time) • Subsidies 20% of Budge, can’t invest elsewhere • USSR can’t feed itself 40% of Gov’t earnings spent on grain imports • Over-dependent on foreign loans owe Fr., FRG, Br., US 50 Billion • Have to do joint ventures (ex. Natural Gas Pipeline 1980’s) • Dependence on oil and gold exports leads to disaster when oil prices collapse 1980’s • No currency for food or investment

14. Brezhnev Problems • Economic Stagnation • Failures under Brezhnev (con’t) • Indicators of failure • Living standards still behind the West • Even behind some Satellite states like GDR • GDR 40% with car, USSR 6% • Black Market 10% of economy • Tolkachi: set up fake factories and sell raw materials from gov’t to real factories • Deals, bribes, patronage to get access to scarce goods/services • Alcoholism rampant • 11% arrested for drunkeness 1979 • 50,000/year die from alcohol related issues 1980 • Infant mortality 23/1000 1971 to 32/1000 1976 • Life expectancy down 4 years for men 2 years for women 1966-81

15. Brezhnev Problems • Why Does the Economy Stagnate?? • Command economy won’t work (supply, demand ignored. no innovation/risks) • No incentives Sovkhozes, Kolkhozes (agri.) or in industry • Ex. US miner 14 tons of coal/day USSR 2.1 tons with similar technology (paid anyway (poorly) why work hard?) • Arms Race chews up resources (11-25%) • Central planning prevents manager experiments/innovations • 5YP’s quantitative not qualitative • Overemphasis on heavy industry = scarce consumer goods “Que up!” • Limited arable land vulnerable to bad weather • Agri. production fails to keep up with population • Private plots (1% of land) produce 28% of food (no incentives on state owned land) • Roads, RR’s limited, few refigerated RR Cars equals rot, Farm equipment poor quality/not maintained

16. Brezhnev Problems • Was Brezhnev truly at fault??? • Did he represent what the Party wanted? • Do the Brezhnev Historiography Activity

17. Brezhnev Foreign Policy • Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev • Initially poor relations with the west • Prague Spring 1968 Opens Communist Party to criticism in Czech. (A. Dubcek wants more open Party) • Brezhnev leads Warsaw pact invasion, crushes Czechs puts hardliner in charge • Brezhnev Doctrine states will intervene if Socialism is threatened in a socialist state • Relations improve in 1970’s with Détente • Means relaxation of tension (mostly with US) • Still try to expand but step back from the edge of war • Why Détente (USSR)? • Fear of nuclear war • Costs of arms race • USSR needs western tech. • USSR has caught up to US (ICBMs) militarily and welcomes a pause • Fear US/China cooperation

18. Brezhnev Foreign Policy • Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev • Why Détente (US)? • President Nixon wants USSR/PRC aid to get a settlement on Vietnam War • Arms costs hurt US economy that is in recession • Yom Kippur war leads to massive oil price increase • US GDP delines from 38% of World to 25% • Kissinger US Sec of State accepts balance

19. Brezhnev Foreign Policy • Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev • Successes • 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty • Don’t transfer nuke tech. to other countries • 1971 Nuclear Accidents Treaty • Notify each other concerning accidents • Salt 1 Treaty 1972 • Limit launchers • 5 year ICBM/SLBM freeze • ABM Treaty: 2 ABM sites each (200 total launchers) • Bombers, MIRV’s not touched • US/USSR Trade Agreement 1972 • High Tech. exports allowed but Senate cancels it unless Jews can emigrate

20. Brezhnev Foreign Policy • Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev • 1972 Basic Pricnciple of Relations • Formalize Peaceful Co-existence • 1973 Prevention of Nuclear War Agreement • Consult during Crises • 1975 Helsinki Accords • Respect sovereignty • Renounce Force • Respect Human rights • Respect borders • Ostpolitik • West Germnay refused to deal with any state that acknowledged East Germany from 1949-1963 • Willy Brandt of SPD Chancellor in 1969 • Moscow Treaty formally ends WWII with USSR • 1971 two Berlins formally recognized • 1972 the two “Germanies” recognize each other • Makes US nervous, Brandt looking East?

21. Brezhnev Foreign Policy • Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev • SALT II 1979 • 2400 Bomber/missile limit reduce to 2250 1985 • 1200 MIRV launchers • Limit # of MIRVs per missile • Commit to negotiate SALT III • Never Ratified • Issues of verification • USSR Brigade of troops discovered in Cuba (violates agreement that ended Missile Crisis 1962) • Soviet Afghan invasion • Both sides follow SALT II provisions even though it is never ratified by US Senate • Late 1970’s Détente under attack in US and USSR • Achievements were always modest any many politicians US/USSR become hostile to it

22. Brezhnev Foreign Policy • Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev • Challenges to Détente USSR • USSR resents linkage of negotiations to human rights • Carter links Détente to Soviet moral behavior • USSR anger at Camp David Egyptian/Israeli Peace Deal • USSR had been promised a seat at the negotiations but was cut out • Challenges to Détente US • USSR seeks to gain advantage in 3rd World late 70’s • Carter Admin split, Brzezinski (Nat’l Security Adviser) sees it as one way street (USSR gets all the advantages) Vance Sec. of State wants to continue • US “New Right” • Increase defense spending, deter Soviets, end recession • Agree with one way street argument • Revolutions in Iran, Nicaragua, Grenada viewed as examples of cynical Soviet Exploitation

23. Brezhnev Foreign Policy • Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev • Challenges to Détente US (con’t) • US “New Right” (con’t) • Reagan wins in 1980 and shifts policy • Middle East Background • Eisenhower Doctrine • Soviet Mediterranean Fleet Formed 1964 • Massive Soviet aid to Egypt after 6 Day War 1966 • Détente then calms things after 1968 • USSR/US to work for peace in the region • Challenges illustrated • Yom Kippur War 1973 • USSR knew of Egypt/Syria attack on Israel in advance and said nothing • Then threatened to send troops to separate warring states when Israel got the upper hand • Forced to back down when US went on worldwide alert (Fiasco for USSR)

24. Brezhnev Foreign Policy • USSR intervention in developing world • Want a say in 3rd world countries, access to naval bases etc… • Angola • Battle between MPLA and FNLA-UNITA when Portuguese leave 1975 • FNLA-UNITA get help from South-Africa, MPLA gets USSR aid • Cuba sends in17,000 troops and MPLA controls most of country • US fears Soviet influence • Ethiopia/Somalia • USSR helps Ethiopia v. Somalia • 17,000 More Cubans sent in • USSR gets port rights right on oil export routes from Persian Gulf • USSR reacting(?) or aggressive expansionists(?) US thinks it is the latter

25. Brezhnev Foreign Policy • Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev • Challenges illustrated • Deployment of SS-20s and Pershing II/Cruise Missiles • 1977 USSR installs mobile SS20 IRBM MIRV missiles targeted on Western Europe and China • US counters with Pershing II and Cruise Missiles (Possible first strike as they fly low avoid radar) • USSR alarmed when after fierce political battle NATO accepts 108 (P) 464 (C) • USSR sees this as first strike, US points out USSR was trying to intimidate Europe • Would US fire its weapons if USSR shoots only at Europe?? (Pershing/CM deployment solves this) • Poland: • Solidarity Union crushed by Polish Military Coup after Brezhnev threats to invade

26. Brezhnev Foreign Policy • Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev • Collapse of Détente • Afghan Invasion • KILLS DÉTENTE • USSR invades to keep a left wing gov’t PDPA in power • PDPA tries limit Islamic influence, emancipate women etc.. and civil war breaks out • Iran, Pakistan and probably CIA support Muslim rebels • PDPA President Taraki fails to defeat rebels and is assassinated by H. Amin (USSR help) • Amin fails and USSR sends in 85,000 troops 1979 • Carter responds • SALT II ratification efforts ended, embargo grain, Boycott Moscow Olympics, increase defense spending

27. Brezhnev Foreign Policy • Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev • Poland 1981 • Solidarity Union movement threatens Polish Communist Party • USSR threatens invasion if Poles don’t act • Debt crisis forces wage cuts, price increases that leads to massive strikes 1980 • Polish Pope John Paul II elected and visits 1979 spurring nationalism • 1980 General Jaruzelski takes over and declares martial law (Ends 1983) and USSR relieved • West split • Europe trade sanctions v. Poland ignores USSR • Reagan embargoes high-tech to USSR too and stalls gas pipeline • Europeans furious and US eventually gives up

28. Brezhnev Foreign Policy • Foreign Policy Under Brezhnev • The Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) or “Star Wars” • “Evil Empire” speech 1983 and second speech unveils space based defense nickname Star Wars • Soviets fear tech edge (Never deployed) • Reagan v. Andropov • KAL Airline 007 flight shot down when it strays over USSR territory 269 killed, False Missile launch warning by USSR radar system • Able Archer War Scare 1983 • 10 day command post exercise to simulate buildup to nuclear exchange • USSR thinks it is real • Reagan election, fierce anti-Soviet rhetoric, probing of Soviet defenses (sea and air) KAL have relations at all-time low • War scare as Soviets think exercise is real • Some argue we are close to war