1 / 42

infield

infield. THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS. Australasian Deepwater – Opportunities & Global Context. Will Rowley - Director of Analytical Services. Infield Systems Ltd. www.infield.com. Contents. Introduction Definitions & Clarification Global Deepwater – Trends & Sectors

neena
Download Presentation

infield

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. infield THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS Australasian Deepwater – Opportunities & Global Context Will Rowley - Director of Analytical Services Infield Systems Ltd. www.infield.com

  2. Contents • Introduction • Definitions & Clarification • Global Deepwater – Trends & Sectors • Regions – Comparisons & Drivers • Australasia – Development Strategies • Opportunities Free world map of deepwater regions & activity – limited quantity Perth 22 February 2005

  3. Infield Systems Ltd, aka ‘Infield’ or ISL • Established over 18 yrs, specialist boutique in offshore energy • Highly respected internationally with clients in every continent • Clients - operators, contractors, suppliers, Governments & NGOs • Worldwide offshore coverage – unique data & info • Service provider (direct & indirect) to over 87%* offshore industry • Full suite of products and services – data, publications & services • Highly developed modelling & forecasting system - OFFPEX™ • Tailored reports, studies, surveys, models & forecasts, due diligence • Support to Operations, Strategic & Investor Relations * To international operators & contractors that account for operations on over 87% of the annualised offshore capex worldwide Perth 22 February 2005

  4. Definitions & Clarifications Water-depth Shallow <500m Deepwater ≥500m Ultra-deepwater ≥1500m [subset of deepwater] Units, Values & terminology Units as noted Values US$m, Development Expenditure Prospects Identified developments Forecasts ISL view on reality of next five years (units & $) Trends Indications for 5yr+ Perth 22 February 2005

  5. Europe North America Asia Middle East Africa Latin America Australasia Definitions & Clarifications - Regions Perth 22 February 2005

  6. Global Deepwater – Trends & Sectors Perth 22 February 2005

  7. Shallow Deep Ultra-deep It is these prospects that are the cause of excitement – the field numbers may be small but ave. reserves/production rates are large Nos. offshore fields in prospect p.a worldwide Prospects not forecasts Actual Prospects 300 250 Most of these very low status, marginal & won’t be developed and form a ‘bow wave’ to the right 200 Nos. 150 100 50 0 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Not forgetting the unknown potential of deepwater Perth 22 February 2005

  8. 5 yr forward – high degree of confidence Ultra-deep Deep Trend lines But the 5-10yr window is harder to predict No. fields due on-stream growing on the back of extensive (and expensive) E&A activity over past 5 yrs 60 50 40 30 Nos. 20 10 0 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Perth 22 February 2005

  9. No Dev. Yet Floating Floating or Subsea (Alt.) ERD &/or Subsea Subsea Sat. to Floating Subsea Sat. to Fixed Subsea Sat. to Onshore Deepwater development solutions under consideration - prospects 45 Notice lag of subsea to floating & high visibility of subsea prospects 40 Fixed & Subsea 35 Fixed 30 25 Nos Subsea to shore – growth area, Egypt, Norway, Brazil 20 15 10 5 0 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Lack of visibility of development solutions in the longer term even with deepwater Perth 22 February 2005

  10. Expenditure Levels Some Key Notes & Assumptions to Forecasts Bottom-up, project-by-project assessment Forecasts 0-5yrs Trends & Indicators 5-10yrs Oil price scenario $18-22/bbl – default Global economy range, static to positive growth (0-3%) One major global incident every 3-5 years Project expenditure cross-checked to operators & field owners Full transparency of methodology, assumptions and forecasts Final forecasts to 2009 subject to minor change as verification of modelling is completed Perth 22 February 2005

  11. Platforms 00-04 $13.7bn 05-09 $20.6bn Platforms Subsea 00-04 $7.9bn 05-09 $17.3bn Subsea Pipelines Pipelines 00-04 $9.1bn 05-09 $14.8bn Scale of deepwater activity – key sectors 6000 5000 4000 $m 3000 2000 1000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Actual Year of Spend $55bn deepwater development expenditure 05-09 – all sectors Peaking at $13.7bn in 2006 – installed facilities & infrastructure costs

  12. Africa Asia Australasia Europe An exceptional peak? Middle East Latin America North America Trend On-stream Model ? High visibility & certainty Medium visibility & certainty Low visibility & certainty Platform Expenditure 6000 5000 4000 Or the first in a series of development waves? – early indicators $m 3000 2000 What could impact on this trend? 1000 0 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 US GoM, West Africa, India, China, Mexico, Indonesia, Malaysia etc Actual Year of Spend Perth 22 February 2005

  13. This is dominated by large newbuild FPSOs – we believe a peak CPT Semi-Sub Ship-Shaped Spar TLP Trend Development scenarios Forecast Actual Trend 6000 5000 But still close to $3bn/yr spent on platforms in the longer term 4000 $m 3000 2000 1000 Rationale - 0 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Actual Year of Spend Need to ascertain success of current crop of large facilities – return on investment Part of peak one-off infrastructure development – West Africa & hubs Cheaper development solutions especially in new deepwater arenas Increasing focus on subsea Perth 22 February 2005

  14. Statistical Linear Trend Average Platform Cost at Sanction (Actual & Intentions) • 600 • 500 • 400 • $m • 300 • 200 Forecast Trend After Lessons Learnt • 100 • 0 • 1985 • 1988 • 1991 • 1994 • 1997 • 2000 • 2003 • 2006 • 2009 • Year Of Sanction Only a small number of major operators can afford the newbuild mega-projects that have been a feature of the past few years Few other companies can afford the risk these projects now bring – and in the short-term many of these have their hands full with existing developments

  15. FPS FPSO Other Floaters SPAR TLP In terms of the number of deepwater platforms installed 00-04 = 35 18 16 Other Fixed 04-08 = 68 14 12 59% = FPSO (Africa, Brazil, Asia & Australasia) 10 Nos. 8 6 Notice low visibility of Spars & TLPs – reflection of their short development schedules 4 2 0 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 Installation Year Note also a lack of projects scheduled for installation in 2010/11, partly because of ‘rollover’ of projects to outside a 5 yr window Perth 22 February 2005

  16. Water Depth Trends Overall trend continues downward Increasing diversity of solutions in type and size Sphere size reflects relative cost scale Perth 22 February 2005

  17. Dry Tree Solution – cost trends Not all cost trends are upwards – mini TLPs & repeat designs pulling average costs down Perth 22 February 2005

  18. TLP – Cost trend by water depth TLP – growing distinction between large & small facilities Kikeh Perth 22 February 2005

  19. Spar - Cost trend by water depth Consistent trend down to 2,000m Possibilities here in Atwater Valley (US GoM) Perth 22 February 2005

  20. Cost trend by water depth – dry trees Key zone of interaction between Spars & TLPs Often compete – alternative scenarios Perth 22 February 2005

  21. Deepwater FPSOs Vary considerably in scale & design – newbuilds & conversions Perth 22 February 2005

  22. FPSs – Semi-submersibles Key hub developments in many regions – especially US & Brazil Perth 22 February 2005

  23. Regions – Trends & Sectors Perth 22 February 2005

  24. North America Middle East Latin America Europe Australasia Asia Africa Deepwater reserves due on-stream per annum Mid-term trend 12,000 10,000 Large Africa fields coming on-stream clearly visible 8,000 MMBOE 6,000 4,000 2,000 - 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Perth 22 February 2005

  25. Asia Africa Australasia Europe Latin America North America Deepwater overall expenditure by region 6000 5000 Middle East 4000 Mid-term trend? 3000 $m 2000 1000 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Actual Year of Spend Note - growing importance of Africa Note – emergence of Asia & Australasia 04-08 $m % Perth 22 February 2005

  26. Asia • Africa • Australasia • Europe • Latin America • Middle East • North America Every Region Experiencing Some Growth (5yr vs 5yr) • 6000 • 5000 • 4000 • $m • 3000 • 2000 • 1000 • 0 • 1999 • 2000 • 2001 • 2002 • 2003 • 2004 • 2005 • 2006 • 2007 • 2008 • Actual Year of Spend Significant growth in Asia & Australasia All deepwater sectors

  27. Australasia – 2% market share 04-08 Small number of developments but an emerging market Enfield & Stybarrow FPSOs Led by local players at present Are there enough prospects to maintain momentum? Platform expenditure Perth 22 February 2005

  28. No. of new fields brought on-stream by operators - Global The number of fields brought on-stream by top ten operators increases but it is the remaining operators who are growing in influence. The number of field owners is also increasing and there is a trend of owners eventually moving into operatorships as their experience grows. Perth 22 February 2005

  29. Global subsea development expenditure Australasia subsea - deepwater Perth 22 February 2005

  30. Worldwide deepwater subsea production well trends 1000m 2000m 3000m Perth 22 February 2005

  31. Australasia – Development Strategies Perth 22 February 2005

  32. Australasia – combined deepwater expenditure Effectively a new sector Deepwater ave = 83% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison) Golden triangle ave = 74% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison) Whilst second smallest region – next to fastest growing (Asia) Perth 22 February 2005

  33. Asia – combined deepwater expenditure Asia 446% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison) $3.6bn Deepwater ave = 83% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison) Golden triangle ave = 74% growth (5yr-on-yr comparison) Already the 4th Most Significant Deepwater Region Perth 22 February 2005

  34. Asia - Cost trend by water depth – all platforms Year Installed 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 0 Australasian experience can be used in Asia 200 400 600 800 Kamunsu WD (m) 1000 1200 Kikeh 1400 1600 1800 2000 The number & scale of prospects is growing all the time – the key question is timing Perth 22 February 2005

  35. Asia & Australasia deepwater subsea production well trends Continued move into deeper waters expected Perth 22 February 2005

  36. Across Asia & Australasia we are seeing - • wide range of development scenarios • innovation in design & approach • steep learning curve • strong NOC & independent lead • increased need for cooperation on delaying issues • but a growing list of prospects • world-class opportunities Perth 22 February 2005

  37. Asian Deepwater Prospects Perth 22 February 2005

  38. Australia – Opportunities Perth 22 February 2005

  39. Regional leadership • To be at the forefront of regional deepwater developments • Potential to develop a long-term deepwater programme • Development of low-cost and flexible solutions • Cross regional opportunities Perth 22 February 2005

  40. Australasian Deepwater Prospects Over $900m of deepwater capex forecast over the next five years Conservative forecast – much greater potential Perth 22 February 2005

  41. infield THE ENERGY DATA ANALYSTS Australasian Deepwater Will Rowley Director of Analytical Services Email: will@infield.com Deepwater maps available – limited number Presentation is available on request – large file www.infield.com

  42. Perth 22 February 2005

More Related