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The Forth Replacement Crossing (FRC) is to be completed in 2016. The 1966 Forth Road Bridge cost £20 million. Inflated to the year 2016 the bridge should cost under £400 million. So why was it priced at over £4,200 million?. 0 1. SECTION 1. FRC-The FORTH REPLACEMENT CROSSING

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  1. The Forth Replacement Crossing (FRC) is to be completed in 2016 The 1966 Forth Road Bridge cost £20 million Inflated to the year 2016 the bridge should cost under £400 million So why was it priced at over £4,200 million? 01

  2. SECTION 1 FRC-The FORTH REPLACEMENT CROSSING The MULTIMODAL option –pre Dec 2008 - was to cost £4.22 Billion Issue 3a 4/05/2009 omnie@tiscali.co.uk World Bridges Comparison Graphs 2

  3. The Proposed Forth Bridge is to be a CABLE STAYED STRUCTURE This slide gives a brief technical explanation. Stays Suspension bridge Cable-stayed bridge In the Suspension bridge, a large cable is made up by "spinning" small diameter wires between two towers, and at each end to anchorages into the ground. In the Cable-stayed bridge, the towers form the primary load-bearing structure. It does not require firm anchorages as in the suspension bridge. It requires less material and much can be pre-fabricated off -lower cost 3

  4. Multimodal structureRoad & rail 4

  5. COST of ALL TYPES OF WORLD’s BRIDGES -£M NOTE : ALL COSTS USED ARE INFLATED TO 2016 PRICES The FCS was going to be the most expensive bridge ever built. 5

  6. COMPARATIVE LENGTH of WORLD BRIDGES The FRC is tiny: a mere 25th in world ranking.. 06

  7. 10 Longest Bridges Ever Built The FRC is a tiny 2,700 metres NOTE: Only one took 5 ½ Years to build At £4,220 million the FRC was far costlier –even against these giants 7

  8. COST of ONLY CABLE STAYED BRIDGES -£M Again – the FRC is by far the most costly 8

  9. COST OF BRIDGES PER METRE LENGTH -£100K £1,563 The average cost per metre is under £200K The FRC was £1,500K per metre 9

  10. SECTION 2 The largest/longest Multimodal crossing ever built THE ORESUND CROSSING 10

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  12. The Oresund Project This Megastructure links Sweden & Denmark The Oresund Crossing Forth Bridge 12

  13. Artificial Island Road & Rail Bridge 7,850 metres Road & Rail Tunnel 4050 metres 13

  14. The Oresund Crossing Superimposed in Fife From South Queensferry to Kelty 16.4 Km 14

  15. An artificial island had to be constructed across the water to join the tunnel and the bridge The Island is some 4 Km long The FRC is 2.7Km long 15

  16. A 4 km tunnel was required to allow shipping access The Tunnel has road and rail It is submerged into the dredged sea bed. 16

  17. Finally the Bridge Road & Rail (multimodal) The longest such bridge in the world – over 7Km long Almost 5 MILES Almost 3 times longer than the FRC 17

  18. Let’s now look at the relative costs The FRC is estimated to be approx. 10% of size of the Oresund Crossing. • Comparing like for like • With prices inflated to 2016 prices. • With full multimodal options. • With all access roads etc. included The Oresund Crossing cost £4.11 Billion * The Forth Crossing cost was priced at £4.22 Billion * The Government report has this at around 7.2% higher. 18

  19. Remember -the Oresund is 10 times greater than the FRC The Oresund Project took ….5 ½ years And what is the FRC scheduled to take?? …5 ½ years Using Government advised data I have the Oresund cost at £4.11 Bn Transport Scotland put the cost of the Oresund project at £4.43 Bn. THIS FIGURE WAS GIVEN TO THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT ‘S (ALL PARTY) TRANSPORT COMMITTEE – THEY MADE NO COMMENT!!! Don’t believe it?? Read on…… 19

  20. Do you know this man? Professor John Kay. BSc PhD FIET, C eng Chosen Financial Adviser to the SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT. Commented…. 20

  21. Public lecture – Sept 2007 on the FRC “Expressed astonishment” “..more than 4 times the final cost of the much longer Oresund bridge” “10 times the cost of France's iconic Millau crossing” And if anyone thinks the initial cost… is likely to emerge as the final bill, ..they should think again. 21

  22. SECTION 3 COMPARING THE FRC WITH THE SEVERN BRIDGE The multimodal option was dropped in Dec 2008 We can compare now compare it with a similar UK crossing IT DOEN’T GET ANY BETTER – READ ON >>>> If you have has enough you can log out now 22

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  24. Structural Comparisons 24

  25. Second Severn Crossing The 1964 bridge cost £9 Million The 1996 bridge cost £330 Million+ £150 million for roads etc. The 2016 cost is £750 Million Transport Scotland have it at £890 million 025

  26. The Original Forth Bridge was built in 1966 costing £20M At current costs - £300M The FRC is 8% longer – equates to £ 324M So where do they arrive at £2,3400M??? The 1966 bridge cost £20 Million A pro-rate 2016 bridge should cost under £500 Million The 2016 cost is £2,340 Million 026

  27. The Original Forth Bridge was built in 1966 costing £20M At current costs - £300M The FRC is 8% longer – equates to £ 324M So where do they arrive at £2,3400M??? Now remember the statistics 027

  28. SECTION 4THE TUNNEL OPTION If you have has enough you can log out now Why was it rejected ? First – a wee bit history On 4th April 2000 a presentation by the contractors of the Scottish Parliament building was arranged for ALL politicians prior to the BIG DEBATE on the exploded costs ONLY SIXTEEN SMPs TURNED UP On 15th January 2009 a debate to decide on the structure of the FRC – the largest Scottish project ever -took place in Holyrood. ONLY SEVENTEEN SMPs TURNED UP 28

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  30. This extremely detailed 120 page report was commission to examine FRC options • Paragraph 3 detailed TUNNEL options, including • Bored tunnels • Immersed tunnels • Tunnel Alignment • Geology & Topology • Tunnel Services • Design Codes Standards etc • Compliance with UN/EC regulations This was NOT a preliminary exploration , it was a detailed examination of all aspects of which tunnel would be most appropriate Several detailed drawings were produced illustrating the detailed study….. 30

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  32. CONCLUSION EXTRACT “Tunnel options adjacent to the existing bridges would also have been more expensive than a bridge ……….” AND WHAT WAS THEIR ESTIMATED COST….? £598M Moving forward from Jan 2005 to Dec 2007 this cost rose TENFOLD……… Don’t believe it ? Read on… 32

  33. Finance and Sustainable Growth Secretary John Swinney Scottish Parliament Wednesday, December 19, 2007 I have set out the cost estimates for the options….. • · Cable-stayed bridge £3.25 billion - £4.22 billion • · Suspension bridge £3.62 billion - £4.70 billion • · Bored Tunnel £5.12 billion - £6.60 billion Do you know what the Channel (bored) tunnel cost?? The gigantic ,31.4 mile (50Km), twin rail crossing with service / safety tunnel The official cost (not mine) was…£4.65billion At current prices it is…… £10. 2 billion So there we have it - a mere one mile river Fife crossing was to cost more than 60% that of a gigantic 26 mile sea crossing. NOT ONE PARLIAMENTARIAN QUESTIONED THIS !!!!! 33

  34. SECTION 5WORLD BRIDGES If you have has enough you can log out now Finally a look at other world bridges for comparisons Is the FRC really so expensive? 34

  35. RECENT WORLDWIDE BRIDGE PROJECTS 035

  36. Q E II Bridge DARTFORD Opened in 1991 at a cost of £86Million 10% longer and only 6% of the cost of the FRC The Forth Bridge Engineering management contract alone cost £100M? 036

  37. MILLAU VIADUCT France Opened in 2004 at a cost of €349m Highest Bridge in the world – over 270 metres high – 7 remarkable towers. Opened only 4 years ago and breaking many world records in technology Of course it is vastly different – but why the huge price difference??? 037

  38. BOB GRAHAM Florida Opened in 1987 at a cost of $244 This Cable Stayed bridge has no outstanding features worthy of comment –except It’s over 3 times the length of the FRC and cost the Americans only 15% of what we are expected to pay 038

  39. Arthur Ravenel S. Carolina Opened in 2005 at a cost of $541 This Cable Stayed bridge has EIGHT lanes Again we have a much larger structure at under half a billion. 039

  40. VASCO de GAMA Opened in 1998 at a cost of $1000m The bridge was opened to traffic …18 months after construction first began 6 lanes; 120 year life; wind shielding etc. etc. and over 10 miles long. ALL FOR 40% OF THE COST 040

  41. HANGZOU BAY China Opened in 2008 at a cost of $1700 The bridge is the second longest cable stayed bridge in the world 6 lanes wide, 22 miles long and built in FOUR years – How can a tiny wee bridge at less than 10% this size take much longer to build at twice the cost 041

  42. PONT de NORMANDIE France Opened in 1995 For $465 The bridge is the longest Cable Stayed bridge in the world. Even with the extended build time it still came in at a QUARTER of the cost. 042

  43. Akashi Kaikyo Japan Opened in 1998 For $4,300 It is the longest, tallest, and most expensive suspension bridge ever built. The FRC would have been dearer at £4,220; we would have had THE WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE BRIDGE EVER 043

  44. SECTION 5COSTING HISTORY If you have has enough you can log out now We now review the costings given out for the bridge Is this contract under tight control? – you judge…… 44

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  46. Jacobs and Maunsell’s 121 page report/survey for FETA in Jan 2005 Construction Tender details from Transport Scotland And the contract hasn’t even started yet. 46

  47. BREAK DOWN OF COSTS of £4,220M PROJECT LAND-MANAGEMENT-THE BRIDGE-ACCESS ROADS LAND The Government already own large areas needed and indications are that land costs are not significant – say £20M Balance £4,200 Million MANAGEMENT Already let at the huge sum of £100 million Balance £4,100 Million THE BRIDGE A letter to me from Transport Scotland gave a multimodal bridge (across the water) cost at £1,200M Balance £2,900 Million ACCESS ROADS This leaves 17Km of access roads to a pay for…… 47

  48. BREAK DOWN OF COSTS of £4,220M PROJECT ACCESS ROADS (calculation 1) -17Km dual carriage way The A9000 completed in 2008 cost £4.6 million for 4.6 Km – A pro rata price for the FRC would be £132 million . Inflated to 2016 it would be less than £200 Million ACCESS ROADS (calculation 2)-17Km Full motorway The average cost of a MOTORWAY in the UK is £30M per mile UK (Gov Statistic.) The FRC access road is NOT motorway standard, however even allowing for a 6 lane highway the cost also should be £200 million OUTSTANDING BALANCE £2,700 million – WHAT’S IT FOR?? NOTE The M74 is currently the UKs most expensive motorway at £140m per mile. The next most expensive in Ireland &England are well under £50M That’s another story……. 48

  49. In Dec 2008 they cheered a cost reduction of £1.88 Bn ???? Let’s try again….. LAND The Government already own large areas needed and indications are that land costs are not significant – say £20M No Saving MANAGEMENT Already let at the huge sum of £100 million still stands No Saving THE BRIDGE Faber &Maunsell reduced the multimodal to the “road only” by 0.25%** i.e. From £1,2000 million to £900 million** Saving £300 million ** From £516 million to £381 million –Faber Mausell Jan 2005 report PP 64 49

  50. ACCESS ROADS 1 -4.Km dual carriage way The A900 completed in 2008 cost £4.6 million for 4.6 Km – Virtually the same for the. Inflated to 2016 the savings would be around £150 million Savings £150 million TOTAL SAVINGS £450 million TRANSPORT SCOTLAND HAVE THE SAVINGS AT £1,880 million – where are the other savings? 50

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