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Energy Development Schemes/ Energy Programs Mollah Amzad Hossain Editor, Energy & Power Bangladesh

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Energy Development Schemes/ Energy Programs Mollah Amzad Hossain Editor, Energy & Power Bangladesh

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  1. Conference on Climate Change and Energy Cooperation in South AsiaOrganized by: SAARC Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SAARC CCI)In Collaboration with: Bhutan Chamber of Commerce & Industry (BCCI)Supported by: Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung für die FreiheitHotel Zhiwaling, Paro, Bhutan22-23 April, 2012 Energy Development Schemes/ Energy Programs Mollah Amzad Hossain Editor, Energy & Power Bangladesh energypower@gmail.com

  2. Bangladesh at a Glance • Official Name : People’s Republic of Bangladesh • Political System : Parliamentary Democracy • Population : 148 Million • Area : 147,570 km • Time Zone : GMT+6 Hours • GDP Total : USD 112 b (FY 2011) • GDP Per Capita : USD 755 (FY 2011) • Total Exports : USD 23 Billion (FY 2011) • Total Import : USD 34 Billion (FY 2011) • Forex Reserve : USD 12 Billion (FY 2011) • Currency : BDT (1 BDT = 1.22 US Cents) • Major Citites : Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna, Sylhet, Rajshahi, Barisal.

  3. Primary Fuel Supply Scenario • Gas:No significant gas discovery in recent years; Depleting gas reserve restricts gas-based power generation • Coal:Near term option; Indigenous or Imported; Base Load; • Oil:Volatile market; High price; For peaking plant • LNG: Necessary to ensure reliable gas supply • Nuclear: No pollution; Expected to be future Base-Load option, Safe and reliable technology; 3

  4. Energy Development Schemes/Energy Programs Bangladesh Energy Scenario • Electricity Growth :14 % (July-Jan FY-2012) (Av. 7 % since 1990) • Generation Capacity : 8005 MW (March, 2012) • Total Consumers : 13 Million • Transmission Lines : 8,600 km • Distribution Lines : 2,78,000 km • Per Capita Generation : 265 kWh (incl. Captive) • Access to Electricity : 53 %

  5. Present Power Generation Capacity (March, 2012) • Considering 20% Maintenance and Forced Outage, Available Generation Capacity is about 6400 MW without fuel constraint 5

  6. Energy Development Schemes/Energy Programs Bangladesh Energy Scenario • Total 24 Hours Demand Around 200 Mkwh • Installed Generation Capacity 192 Mkwh • Total Farm Generation Capacity Around 154 Mkwh • From Natural Gas Capacity Around 108 Mkwh • From Imported Fuel Capacity Around 55 Mkwh • From Own Coal Capacity Around 8 Mkwh • From Hydro Capacity Around 8 Mkwh • Highest Generation Around 110 Mkwh • Average Generation Around 90 Mkwh • Short Supply of Energy Around 90 Mkwh (in Summer)

  7. Estimated Demand Supply Gap up to 2016 (Calendar Year) January, 2012 7

  8. Fuel Mix up to 2017

  9. Generation Capacity by Fuel Type 9

  10. Regional Power Exchange: Possibilities 1000MW 750MW THAKURGAON 1000MW SILCHAR FENCHUGANJ ALIDUARPUR BOGURA PURNIA BARAPUKURIA FENCHUGANJ 250MW PALLATANA COMILLA (N) BHERAMARA BAHARAMPUR 500 MW COMILLA (N) BAHARAMPURBHERAMARA 500MW [2013-]  500MW [2018-]   MYANMAR CHITTAGONG

  11. Road Map for Coal Power Development (as of 2030) Domestic Coal K-D-P 6x1000 MW USC K-D-P 8x 600 MW USC Import Coal Meghnaghat 2x600MW Zajira/New Meg 3x600MW Chittagong 3x660MW Moheshkhali/Matarbari 4x600MW Railway Khulna 2x660MW (Dom Future) Total 19,200MW (New) Coal Center Chittagong Matarbari Sonadia Island : Potential Coal PS : Potential Coal Center : Ocean-going vessel : Transship

  12. RE, EE & Conservation • Plan to Add 5% Power from RE by 2015 and 10% by 2021 • World Successful Model in Solar Home System (SHS). Already Installed 1.5 Million SHS Total Capacity 64 MWp. Plan to Installed more 1 million by next year. • Solar Irrigation: Installed 30 project and Plan to Installed 100 more • Grid Connected Solar Power Plant abound 100MW • Stan alone Roof Top Solar • Wind: 2MW Installed, More 200MW Planed. Work going on for Wind Mapping. • Biogas and Improved Cooking Stove (IVS).

  13. RE, EE & Conservation • GOB Enact National Renewable Policy • On Way to Form Sustainable and Renewable Energy Authority • Distributed 20 Million CFL • Draft Energy Conservation Act ready for Pass • Energy Efficient Buildings Act Way to Final • Energy Auditing and Product Leveling Way to Start.

  14. Investment by 2030 (Gen & Tran)

  15. Investment • Apart from That GOB need $17 Billion more for Built LNG Terminal and Coal Import Infrastructure. • Power Purchase from IPP, SIPP, Rental $ 1 Billion/Annually • Annual Cost for Gas, Coal, LNG and Fuel Oil Cost not Included in Earlier Slide (Expert Opinion -- Gas $550M, Coal $3B, LNG $2.5B and Fuel Oil $3B/ Annually) • Local Finance Not Enough Need FDI

  16. Regional Energy Scenario • Bangladesh 8000 MW Shortage 40-50% • Bhutan 1488 MW, No Shortage, Export to India • Pakistan 20922 MW, Shortage 5000-7000MW • Nepal 714 MW Monsoon Supply 660MW Winter 325MW Power cut 12 to 16 Hours, Exporter and Importer • Afghanistan Around 1200MW (66% Imported) • Sri Lanka 2878MW (Costly Electricity) No Shortage • India Around 200,000MW, Peak Shortage Around 15% All SAARC Countries are Facing Shortage of Power, Except Bhutan

  17. Energy Resource • Bhutan and Nepal Have Huge Hydro Potential • North East India Have Around 60,000MW Hydro Potential • Myanmar Have 7000MW Hydro Potential Near Bangladesh • India and Bangladesh Need More and More Power for their Economic Growth, But Both of them facing Shortage of Primary Energy Like Coal, Gas • Bangladesh Fully Depends on Gas (77% Power from Gas), 3 Bt Coal reserve and Around 10 TCF Gas • So, Bangladesh Needs to Import Power from neighbouring Countries

  18. Regional Cooperation • Nepal-India Power Exchange; Bhutan-India power Exchange • Bangladesh-India Power Exchange (250MW+250MW) from Baharampur to Bheramara (On Going) • Bangladesh-India Power Exchange from Tripura (Proposed) • India-Sri Lanka Power Exchange (Planning Stage) • Power from Central Asia through Afghanistan-Pakistan-India; • Bangladesh-Myanmar Power Exchange

  19. SAARC Energy Cooperation • SAARC Power Grid • Four-Nation Power Grid • SAARC Energy Ring • Cross-border Energy Project • Multi-lateral discussion, bilateral discussion; • Political Challenges

  20. SAARC Energy Cooperation • India: regional cooperation through bilateral cooperation • Main obstacle was to start India-Bangladesh power Exchange • India-Bangladesh-India Power Exchange (develop N-E hydro resources)

  21. Challenges • Transforming bilateral Power Exchange into Multi-lateral • Four-nation Power Grid (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal) • Four-nation Power Pool, Power Trading • Competition and Low-carbon Development

  22. Political Challenges • India should Take the Lead • India-Pakistan Energy Exchange • Pump Energy from Central Asia and the Middle East • SAARC Energy Resources Fall Short of it Requirement; • Start Working on Outside SAARC Cooperation by Now

  23. Conclusion • Political Leadership Should Find Cooperation Formulae • Identify Technical Barriers & Solve Them • Legal Framework • Efficient Use of Energy • Energy Conservation

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