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Bahrain labour market trends

Bahrain labour market trends. LMRA Policy Directorate 15 August 2006. Contents. Employment Quarterly employment time series Civilian employment is accelerating, with an expected addition of 66’200 by end 2006 Wages Establishment survey on wage structure and distribution, March 2006

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Bahrain labour market trends

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  1. Bahrainlabour market trends LMRA Policy Directorate 15 August 2006

  2. Contents • Employment • Quarterly employment time series • Civilian employment is accelerating, with an expected addition of 66’200 by end 2006 • Wages • Establishment survey on wage structure and distribution, March 2006 • There are significant unexplained differences between Bahraini and non-Bahraini wages • Annex • Review of Bahrain labour market data: Gaps and weaknesses • Statistical tables • Methodological descriptions

  3. Bahrain labour market data • Gaps: Lack of data • Labour cost • Productivity • Industrial disputes • Weaknesses: Data not comprehensive or regular • Employment • Unemployment • Wages and earnings • Hours of work • Underemployment • Occupational injuries

  4. Combining data from different sources Maximise advantages, minimise drawbacks of each source • Limit cost • Increase periodicity • Expand coverage • Adjust to standards • Obtain disaggregated statistics Objective:

  5. Documenting data GOSI PFC CSB MoL MOIC Labour force survey Establishment survey National Accounts MI Standard codes Evaluating data Employment Bahraini Non-Bahraini Unemployment Bahraini Wages Bahraini Non-Bahraini Benchmarking at specific date Comparing data from different sources Similar concepts Dissimilar but interrelated concepts Reconciling data Identifying differences Accounting for differences Balancing and consolidating Adjusting for unaccounted differences Deriving consolidated benchmark Disaggregating Civil, Military Private, Public Sector Male, Female Youth, Adult Time series Quarterly 2002 Q1 - Labour Accounting

  6. Table 1. Civilian employmentComparison of data from different sources:Nov-Dec 2004 4 Labour Market Regulatory Authority (LMRA), Market Intelligence Database, 200412. Workers on contract, temporary assignment or below 18 years of age. 1 Labour Force Survey 2004, Bahrain Centre for Studies & Research, Table 5.7, pp. 84 and 184. 2 General Organisation for Social Insurance, 28th Annual Report – 2004, Table 4, p. 23. 3 The Pension Fund Commission, Annual Report 2004, Table No. (1) and No. (7), pp. 28, 36.

  7. Table 2a. Total Bahraini employmentReconciliation of data from different sources:Nov-Dec 2004 1Mehran, F., “Bahrain’s Illicit Labour Market,” LMRA Working Paper, July 2006. 2Number of records with duplicate CPR in GOSI files 200412 received by LMRA. 3Estimated number of employees in establishments with 1-4 workers, not covered by GOSI in 200412, Mehran, F., “Harmonisation of time series based on administrative records for changes in coverage,” LMRA Working Paper, June 2006. 4 Employers, own-account and unpaid family workers not included in GOSI records, Labour Force Survey 2004, Bahrain Centre for Studies & Research, Table 5.7, p. 184.

  8. Table 2b. Total non-Bahraini employmentReconciliation of data from different sources:Nov-Dec 2004 1Mehran, F., “Bahrain’s Illicit Labour Market,” LMRA Working Paper, July 2006. 2Number of records with duplicate CPR in GOSI files 200412 received by LMRA. 3Estimated number of employees in establishments with 1-4 workers, not covered by GOSI in 200412, Mehran, F., “Harmonisation of time series based on administrative records for changes in coverage,” LMRA Working Paper, June 2006. 4 Employers, own-account and unpaid family workers not included in GOSI records, Labour Force Survey 2004, Bahrain Centre for Studies & Research, Table 5.7, p. 184.

  9. Table 3a. Total Bahraini employmentBalancing data from different sources:Nov-Dec 2004 1Mehran, F., “Bahrain’s Illicit Labour Market,” LMRA Working Paper, July 2006. 2Number of records with duplicate CPR in GOSI files 200412 received by LMRA. 3Estimated number of employees in establishments with 1-4 workers, not covered by GOSI in 200412, Mehran, F., “Harmonisation of time series based on administrative records for changes in coverage,” LMRA Working Paper, June 2006. 4 Employers, own-account and unpaid family workers not included in GOSI records, Labour Force Survey 2004, Bahrain Centre for Studies & Research, Table 5.7, p. 184.

  10. Table 3b. Total non-Bahraini employmentBalancing data from different sources:Nov-Dec 2004 1Mehran, F., “Bahrain’s Illicit Labour Market,” LMRA Working Paper, July 2006. 2Number of records with duplicate CPR in GOSI files 200412 received by LMRA. 3Estimated number of employees in establishments with 1-4 workers, not covered by GOSI in 200412, Mehran, F., “Harmonisation of time series based on administrative records for changes in coverage,” LMRA Working Paper, June 2006. 4 Employers, own-account and unpaid family workers not included in GOSI records, Labour Force Survey 2004, Bahrain Centre for Studies & Research, Table 5.7, p. 184.

  11. Table 4. Consolidated estimate of total employment Nov-Dec 2004 Civilian employment Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) = Total employment Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) – Military Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) “Public” = Table 5a (line 2 + line 4) “Private” Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) = Civilian Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) – “Public” Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) GOSI adj = Table 5a (line 1 – line 5 – line 6 +line 7) Non-employees LFS = Table 5a (line 9) Other “Free-visas” Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) = “Private” Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) – GOSI adj Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) – Non-employees LFS Bahraini/Non-Bahraini (T) Other “Free-visas” Male/Female = proportion of M and F in Employees GOSI adj + Non-employees LFS Completion of table by additions.

  12. Table 5a. Particular categories of employed personsNov-Dec 2004

  13. Table 5c. Free-visa and assimilated workers2004-2005

  14. Table 6. Estimation of employment 2004 Q3Ratio estimation a = d/(1-d) b = e/(1-e-f) c = f/(1-e-f) d = Non-employees Bahraini LFS (Male, Female, Nov-Dev 2004) “Private” sector Bahraini e = Non-employees Non-Bahraini LFS (Male, Female, Nov-Dec 2004) “Private” sector Non-Bahraini f = Other “Free-visas” Non-Bahraini (Male, Female, Nov-Dec 2004) “Private” sector Non-Bahraini

  15. Table 7. Estimation of Bahraini civilian employment 2004 Q3Youth and Adult a = y3 (Male Youth) / y3(Male Total) b = y3(Female Youth) / y3(Female Total) c = 1-a d = 1-b e = y6 (Male Youth) / y6(Male Total) f = y6(Female Youth) / y6(Female Total) g = 1-e h = 1-f

  16. Table 1. Quarterly employment trends in Bahrain 2002-2006 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 Private 150,000 100,000 50,000 Public 0 200203 200206 200209 200212 200303 200306 200309 200312 200403 200406 200409 200412 200503 200506 200509 200512 200603 Civilian Civilian

  17. Table 5. Annual increase in civilian employment:Expected on past trend 2002-2006against current trend 2006Q1

  18. Next steps • Employment • Review of data • PFC data on non-civilian • GOSI data for 2005 Q3 • CSB not in PFC • Both in GOSI and PFC • Review of underlying assumptions • Review of private-public classification • Branch of economic activity • Unemployment (HJ) • Wages (FM) • Population (CIO)

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